T able 2. Open in new tab Base...

	Base regression	Period interactions
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–2004	−0.615***	−0.346***
(0.165)	(0.0817)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–89			−0.535***	−0.237***
		(0.136)	(0.0635)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1990–98			−0.651***	−0.328***
		(0.207)	(0.0991)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1999–2004			−0.720***	−0.409***
		(0.210)	(0.107)
Log (population), 1970–2004	−2.056	−0.815***
(1.345)	(0.113)
Log (population), 1970–89			−3.544**	−1.194***
		(1.506)	(0.166)
Log (population), 1990–98			−3.237**	−0.893***
		(1.518)	(0.123)
Log (population), 1999–2004			−3.020**	−0.671***
		(1.535)	(0.122)
CPIA, 1970–2004	0.0758	0.108
(0.0774)	(0.0739)
CPIA, 1970–89			−0.0344	0.0397
		(0.105)	(0.0927)
CPIA, 1990–98			0.215	0.175
		(0.135)	(0.120)
CPIA, 1999–2004			0.919**	0.772**
		(0.366)	(0.314)
Present value of debt, 1970–2004	−0.0141	0.0242
(0.132)	(0.133)
Present value of debt, 1970–89			−0.475*	−0.436*
		(0.261)	(0.259)
Present value of debt, 1990–98			0.219	0.246
		(0.154)	(0.154)
Present value of debt, 1999–2004			0.374	0.497
		(0.376)	(0.350)
Net aid transfer other donors	5.197	7.830*	−2.427	1.167
(4.001)	(4.376)	(3.559)	(3.760)
Donor sum of net aid transfers	−0.294*	−0.204	−0.290*	−0.201
(0.164)	(0.156)	(0.163)	(0.154)
Lagged bilateral trade	12.07	20.57***	11.79	20.31***
(8.881)	(7.046)	(8.826)	(6.979)
Constant	34.70*	14.39***	49.27**	15.93***
(20.88)	(1.924)	(24.68)	(2.101)
Number of observations	49,804	49,804	49,804	49,804
Hausman test (stat and p-value)	0.000	98.97***	0.000	131.14***

Base regression

Period interactions

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Variable

Fixed effects

Random effects

Fixed effects

Random effects

Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–2004

−0.615***

−0.346***

(0.165)

(0.0817)

Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–89

−0.535***

−0.237***

(0.136)

(0.0635)

Lagged GDP per capita, 1990–98

−0.651***

−0.328***

(0.207)

(0.0991)

Lagged GDP per capita, 1999–2004

−0.720***

−0.409***

(0.210)

(0.107)

Log (population), 1970–2004

−2.056

−0.815***

(1.345)

(0.113)

Log (population), 1970–89

−3.544**

−1.194***

(1.506)

(0.166)

Log (population), 1990–98

−3.237**

−0.893***

(1.518)

(0.123)

Log (population), 1999–2004

−3.020**

−0.671***

(1.535)

(0.122)

CPIA, 1970–2004

0.0758

0.108

(0.0774)

(0.0739)

CPIA, 1970–89

−0.0344

0.0397

(0.105)

(0.0927)

CPIA, 1990–98

0.215

0.175

(0.135)

(0.120)

CPIA, 1999–2004

0.919**

0.772**

(0.366)

(0.314)

Present value of debt, 1970–2004

−0.0141

0.0242

(0.132)

(0.133)

Present value of debt, 1970–89

−0.475*

−0.436*

(0.261)

(0.259)

Present value of debt, 1990–98

0.219

0.246

(0.154)

Present value of debt, 1999–2004

0.374

0.497

(0.376)

(0.350)

Net aid transfer other donors

5.197

7.830*

−2.427

1.167

(4.001)

(4.376)

(3.559)

(3.760)

Donor sum of net aid transfers

−0.294*

−0.204

−0.290*

−0.201

(0.164)

(0.156)

(0.163)

(0.154)

Lagged bilateral trade

12.07

20.57***

11.79

20.31***

(8.881)

(7.046)

(8.826)

(6.979)

Constant

34.70*

14.39***

49.27**

15.93***

(20.88)

(1.924)

(24.68)

(2.101)

Number of observations

49,804

Hausman test (stat and p-value)

0.000

98.97***

0.000

131.14***

	Base regression	Period interactions
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–2004	−0.615***	−0.346***
(0.165)	(0.0817)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–89			−0.535***	−0.237***
		(0.136)	(0.0635)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1990–98			−0.651***	−0.328***
		(0.207)	(0.0991)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1999–2004			−0.720***	−0.409***
		(0.210)	(0.107)
Log (population), 1970–2004	−2.056	−0.815***
(1.345)	(0.113)
Log (population), 1970–89			−3.544**	−1.194***
		(1.506)	(0.166)
Log (population), 1990–98			−3.237**	−0.893***
		(1.518)	(0.123)
Log (population), 1999–2004			−3.020**	−0.671***
		(1.535)	(0.122)
CPIA, 1970–2004	0.0758	0.108
(0.0774)	(0.0739)
CPIA, 1970–89			−0.0344	0.0397
		(0.105)	(0.0927)
CPIA, 1990–98			0.215	0.175
		(0.135)	(0.120)
CPIA, 1999–2004			0.919**	0.772**
		(0.366)	(0.314)
Present value of debt, 1970–2004	−0.0141	0.0242
(0.132)	(0.133)
Present value of debt, 1970–89			−0.475*	−0.436*
		(0.261)	(0.259)
Present value of debt, 1990–98			0.219	0.246
		(0.154)	(0.154)
Present value of debt, 1999–2004			0.374	0.497
		(0.376)	(0.350)
Net aid transfer other donors	5.197	7.830*	−2.427	1.167
(4.001)	(4.376)	(3.559)	(3.760)
Donor sum of net aid transfers	−0.294*	−0.204	−0.290*	−0.201
(0.164)	(0.156)	(0.163)	(0.154)
Lagged bilateral trade	12.07	20.57***	11.79	20.31***
(8.881)	(7.046)	(8.826)	(6.979)
Constant	34.70*	14.39***	49.27**	15.93***
(20.88)	(1.924)	(24.68)	(2.101)
Number of observations	49,804	49,804	49,804	49,804
Hausman test (stat and p-value)	0.000	98.97***	0.000	131.14***

Table 2.

Open in new tab

Base Regression Results

	Base regression		Period interactions
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Variable	Fixed effects	Random effects	Fixed effects	Random effects
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–2004	−0.615***	−0.346***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–2004	(0.165)	(0.0817)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–89			−0.535***	−0.237***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–89			(0.136)	(0.0635)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1990–98			−0.651***	−0.328***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1990–98			(0.207)	(0.0991)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1999–2004			−0.720***	−0.409***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1999–2004			(0.210)	(0.107)
Log (population), 1970–2004	−2.056	−0.815***
Log (population), 1970–2004	(1.345)	(0.113)
Log (population), 1970–89			−3.544**	−1.194***
Log (population), 1970–89			(1.506)	(0.166)
Log (population), 1990–98			−3.237**	−0.893***
Log (population), 1990–98			(1.518)	(0.123)
Log (population), 1999–2004			−3.020**	−0.671***
Log (population), 1999–2004			(1.535)	(0.122)
CPIA, 1970–2004	0.0758	0.108
CPIA, 1970–2004	(0.0774)	(0.0739)
CPIA, 1970–89			−0.0344	0.0397
CPIA, 1970–89			(0.105)	(0.0927)
CPIA, 1990–98			0.215	0.175
CPIA, 1990–98			(0.135)	(0.120)
CPIA, 1999–2004			0.919**	0.772**
CPIA, 1999–2004			(0.366)	(0.314)
Present value of debt, 1970–2004	−0.0141	0.0242
Present value of debt, 1970–2004	(0.132)	(0.133)
Present value of debt, 1970–89			−0.475*	−0.436*
Present value of debt, 1970–89			(0.261)	(0.259)
Present value of debt, 1990–98			0.219	0.246
Present value of debt, 1990–98			(0.154)	(0.154)
Present value of debt, 1999–2004			0.374	0.497
Present value of debt, 1999–2004			(0.376)	(0.350)
Net aid transfer other donors	5.197	7.830*	−2.427	1.167
Net aid transfer other donors	(4.001)	(4.376)	(3.559)	(3.760)
Donor sum of net aid transfers	−0.294*	−0.204	−0.290*	−0.201
Donor sum of net aid transfers	(0.164)	(0.156)	(0.163)	(0.154)
Lagged bilateral trade	12.07	20.57***	11.79	20.31***
Lagged bilateral trade	(8.881)	(7.046)	(8.826)	(6.979)
Constant	34.70*	14.39***	49.27**	15.93***
Constant	(20.88)	(1.924)	(24.68)	(2.101)
Number of observations	49,804	49,804	49,804	49,804
Hausman test (stat and p-value)	0.000	98.97***	0.000	131.14***

	Base regression		Period interactions
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Variable	Fixed effects	Random effects	Fixed effects	Random effects
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–2004	−0.615***	−0.346***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–2004	(0.165)	(0.0817)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–89			−0.535***	−0.237***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1970–89			(0.136)	(0.0635)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1990–98			−0.651***	−0.328***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1990–98			(0.207)	(0.0991)
Lagged GDP per capita, 1999–2004			−0.720***	−0.409***
Lagged GDP per capita, 1999–2004			(0.210)	(0.107)
Log (population), 1970–2004	−2.056	−0.815***
Log (population), 1970–2004	(1.345)	(0.113)
Log (population), 1970–89			−3.544**	−1.194***
Log (population), 1970–89			(1.506)	(0.166)
Log (population), 1990–98			−3.237**	−0.893***
Log (population), 1990–98			(1.518)	(0.123)
Log (population), 1999–2004			−3.020**	−0.671***
Log (population), 1999–2004			(1.535)	(0.122)
CPIA, 1970–2004	0.0758	0.108
CPIA, 1970–2004	(0.0774)	(0.0739)
CPIA, 1970–89			−0.0344	0.0397
CPIA, 1970–89			(0.105)	(0.0927)
CPIA, 1990–98			0.215	0.175
CPIA, 1990–98			(0.135)	(0.120)
CPIA, 1999–2004			0.919**	0.772**
CPIA, 1999–2004			(0.366)	(0.314)
Present value of debt, 1970–2004	−0.0141	0.0242
Present value of debt, 1970–2004	(0.132)	(0.133)
Present value of debt, 1970–89			−0.475*	−0.436*
Present value of debt, 1970–89			(0.261)	(0.259)
Present value of debt, 1990–98			0.219	0.246
Present value of debt, 1990–98			(0.154)	(0.154)
Present value of debt, 1999–2004			0.374	0.497
Present value of debt, 1999–2004			(0.376)	(0.350)
Net aid transfer other donors	5.197	7.830*	−2.427	1.167
Net aid transfer other donors	(4.001)	(4.376)	(3.559)	(3.760)
Donor sum of net aid transfers	−0.294*	−0.204	−0.290*	−0.201
Donor sum of net aid transfers	(0.164)	(0.156)	(0.163)	(0.154)
Lagged bilateral trade	12.07	20.57***	11.79	20.31***
Lagged bilateral trade	(8.881)	(7.046)	(8.826)	(6.979)
Constant	34.70*	14.39***	49.27**	15.93***
Constant	(20.88)	(1.924)	(24.68)	(2.101)
Number of observations	49,804	49,804	49,804	49,804
Hausman test (stat and p-value)	0.000	98.97***	0.000	131.14***

*Significant at p < 0.1.

**Significant at p < 0.05.

***Significant at p < 0.01.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are robust standard errors. Hausman specification test compares the fixed effects and random effects. F-test results for differences in subperiod coefficients (fixed effects model, column 3): lagged GDP per capita (F-value: 1.85; p = 0.16); log population (F-value: 7.71; p = 0.005); CPIA (F-value: 3.13; p = 0.04); and present value of debt (F-value: 2.30; p = 0.09).

Source: Authors' analysis based on data sources shown in table 1.

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