Table 4.

Estimated Value at Risk Model for Turkey for 1990–2004

Depreciation of RERDomestic Interest RateForeign Interest RateGrowth Rate
Depreciation of RER (−1)0.6164132*** (0.1214663)−0.0764374 (0.0745745)0.0071392*** (0.0032883)−0.0163632 (0.0578173)
Domestic interest rate (−1)0.5183742** (0.1300432)0.7703966*** (0.0798403)−0.0034098 (0.0035205)0.2292575*** (0.0618999)
Foreign interest rate (−1)2.613194** (1.310771)0.1130593 (0.8047509)0.9929505*** (0.0354851)0.8727535 (0.6239205)
Growth rate (−1)0.0078362 (0.2706376)−0.0719824 (0.1661585)−0.0050722 (0.0073267)0.6440931*** (0.1288221)
Constant−17.6484** (6.057141)3.862517 (3.718795)0.0658478 (0.1639787)−5.609101* (2.883169)
Depreciation of RERDomestic Interest RateForeign Interest RateGrowth Rate
Depreciation of RER (−1)0.6164132*** (0.1214663)−0.0764374 (0.0745745)0.0071392*** (0.0032883)−0.0163632 (0.0578173)
Domestic interest rate (−1)0.5183742** (0.1300432)0.7703966*** (0.0798403)−0.0034098 (0.0035205)0.2292575*** (0.0618999)
Foreign interest rate (−1)2.613194** (1.310771)0.1130593 (0.8047509)0.9929505*** (0.0354851)0.8727535 (0.6239205)
Growth rate (−1)0.0078362 (0.2706376)−0.0719824 (0.1661585)−0.0050722 (0.0073267)0.6440931*** (0.1288221)
Constant−17.6484** (6.057141)3.862517 (3.718795)0.0658478 (0.1639787)−5.609101* (2.883169)

*Significance at the 10 percent level.

**significant at the 5 percent level.

***significant at the 1 percent level.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are standard errors.

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics database and IMF staff estimates.

Table 4.

Estimated Value at Risk Model for Turkey for 1990–2004

Depreciation of RERDomestic Interest RateForeign Interest RateGrowth Rate
Depreciation of RER (−1)0.6164132*** (0.1214663)−0.0764374 (0.0745745)0.0071392*** (0.0032883)−0.0163632 (0.0578173)
Domestic interest rate (−1)0.5183742** (0.1300432)0.7703966*** (0.0798403)−0.0034098 (0.0035205)0.2292575*** (0.0618999)
Foreign interest rate (−1)2.613194** (1.310771)0.1130593 (0.8047509)0.9929505*** (0.0354851)0.8727535 (0.6239205)
Growth rate (−1)0.0078362 (0.2706376)−0.0719824 (0.1661585)−0.0050722 (0.0073267)0.6440931*** (0.1288221)
Constant−17.6484** (6.057141)3.862517 (3.718795)0.0658478 (0.1639787)−5.609101* (2.883169)
Depreciation of RERDomestic Interest RateForeign Interest RateGrowth Rate
Depreciation of RER (−1)0.6164132*** (0.1214663)−0.0764374 (0.0745745)0.0071392*** (0.0032883)−0.0163632 (0.0578173)
Domestic interest rate (−1)0.5183742** (0.1300432)0.7703966*** (0.0798403)−0.0034098 (0.0035205)0.2292575*** (0.0618999)
Foreign interest rate (−1)2.613194** (1.310771)0.1130593 (0.8047509)0.9929505*** (0.0354851)0.8727535 (0.6239205)
Growth rate (−1)0.0078362 (0.2706376)−0.0719824 (0.1661585)−0.0050722 (0.0073267)0.6440931*** (0.1288221)
Constant−17.6484** (6.057141)3.862517 (3.718795)0.0658478 (0.1639787)−5.609101* (2.883169)

*Significance at the 10 percent level.

**significant at the 5 percent level.

***significant at the 1 percent level.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are standard errors.

Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics database and IMF staff estimates.

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