Table A.1. Open in new tab Supplementary...

Variables	3 km radius	5 km radius
Year 2004	−0.6538	0.17	−3.90	0.0001	−0.682	0.16	−4.25	0.0000
Year 2005	−1.1064	0.82	−1.34	0.1789	−1.086	0.78	−1.39	0.1644
Year 2006	−0.7655	0.36	−2.12	0.0337	−0.769	0.45	−1.72	0.0859
Year 2007	−0.7145	0.33	−2.20	0.0281	−0.721	0.26	−2.76	0.0057
Year 2008	−0.5891	0.17	−3.42	0.0006	−0.611	0.18	−3.49	0.0005
Year 2009	−0.7158	0.49	−1.46	0.1437	−0.711	0.43	−1.67	0.0957
Year 2010	−0.3124	0.15	−2.15	0.0319	−0.331	0.15	−2.25	0.0247
Year 2011	−0.6984	0.52	−1.34	0.1819	−0.689	0.63	−1.09	0.2768
Year 2012	−0.9177	1.27	−0.72	0.4689	−0.946	1.28	−0.74	0.4594
Year 2013	−1.2887	1.79	−0.72	0.4707	−1.264	1.75	−0.72	0.4691
Year 2014	−1.1003	1.90	−0.58	0.5627	−1.116	1.83	−0.61	0.5416
Year 2015	−1.1150	2.09	−0.53	0.5934	−1.114	1.90	−0.59	0.5580
Zone 2	−0.9497	0.17	−5.44	0.0000	−0.840	0.15	−5.51	0.0000
Zone 3	−0.3996	0.10	−3.95	0.0001	−0.438	0.10	−4.30	0.0000
Zone 4	−0.3963	0.10	−4.00	0.0001	−0.398	0.10	−3.87	0.0001
Zone 5	−0.5576	0.10	−5.41	0.0000	−0.569	0.10	−5.55	0.0000
Zone 6	−0.4851	0.16	−3.07	0.0022	−0.495	0.15	−3.35	0.0008
Zone 7	−0.7199	1.22	−0.59	0.5553	−0.730	1.16	−0.63	0.5279
Intersection Y2004; Z2	0.2863	1.16	0.25	0.8046	0.180	1.10	0.16	0.8697
Intersection Y2005; Z2	−0.3683	1.85	−0.20	0.8422	−0.190	1.78	−0.11	0.9148
Intersection Y2006; Z2	−2.7823	0.39	−7.12	0.0000	−2.727	0.47	−5.78	0.0000
Intersection Y2007; Z2	0.2987	1.52	0.20	0.8444	0.149	1.59	0.09	0.9251
Intersection Y2008; Z2	0.1833	1.54	0.12	0.9051	0.028	1.51	0.02	0.9851
Intersection Y2009; Z2	0.3319	1.65	0.20	0.8409	0.166	1.67	0.10	0.9207
Intersection Y2010; Z2	−3.2392	0.22	−14.98	0.0000	−3.173	0.20	−15.66	0.0000
Intersection Y2011; Z2	0.3655	1.68	0.22	0.8281	0.229	1.66	0.14	0.8904
Intersection Y2012; Z2	0.4985	2.00	0.25	0.8032	0.394	2.02	0.19	0.8455
Intersection Y2013; Z2	0.8807	2.33	0.38	0.7059	0.717	2.38	0.30	0.7637
Intersection Y2014; Z2	−2.3560	1.91	−1.24	0.2165	−2.340	1.84	−1.27	0.2027
Intersection Y2015; Z2	−2.5847	2.09	−1.24	0.2166	−2.349	1.90	−1.24	0.2158
Intersection Y2004; Z3	0.3207	0.22	1.49	0.1372	0.350	0.21	1.64	0.1001
Intersection Y2005; Z3	0.3270	1.05	0.31	0.7546	0.308	0.94	0.33	0.7429
Intersection Y2006; Z3	−0.0433	0.77	−0.06	0.9550	−0.068	0.67	−0.10	0.9192
Intersection Y2007; Z3	0.1374	0.53	0.26	0.7953	0.146	0.39	0.37	0.7111
Intersection Y2008; Z3	0.2793	0.22	1.28	0.2005	0.286	0.22	1.29	0.1978
Intersection Y2009; Z3	0.1248	0.67	0.19	0.8518	0.072	0.56	0.13	0.8970
Intersection Y2010; Z3	−0.2902	0.33	−0.87	0.3837	−0.301	0.42	−0.71	0.4753
Intersection Y2011; Z3	−0.1906	1.35	−0.14	0.8879	−0.229	1.26	−0.18	0.8555
Intersection Y2012; Z3	−3.2733	1.28	−2.55	0.0106	−3.155	1.28	−2.46	0.0137
Intersection Y2013; Z3	0.5307	2.00	0.27	0.7902	0.499	1.88	0.27	0.7908
Intersection Y2014; Z3	−3.0684	1.90	−1.62	0.1059	−2.988	1.82	−1.64	0.1013
Intersection Y2015; Z3	−3.6497	2.11	−1.73	0.0840	−3.088	1.90	−1.62	0.1042
Intersection Y2004; Z4	0.1240	0.21	0.58	0.5641	0.157	0.23	0.69	0.4896
Intersection Y2005; Z4	0.6318	0.83	0.76	0.4474	0.592	0.79	0.75	0.4552
Intersection Y2006; Z4	0.2102	0.39	0.54	0.5919	0.182	0.48	0.38	0.7064
Intersection Y2007; Z4	0.3905	0.34	1.15	0.2517	0.367	0.30	1.24	0.2142
Intersection Y2008; Z4	0.2005	0.22	0.92	0.3579	0.218	0.22	0.99	0.3203
Intersection Y2009; Z4	0.6635	0.51	1.31	0.1894	0.624	0.44	1.42	0.1557
Intersection Y2010; Z4	0.0111	0.19	0.06	0.9544	−0.011	0.19	−0.06	0.9525
Intersection Y2011; Z4	0.3617	0.54	0.67	0.5029	0.305	0.66	0.46	0.6456
Intersection Y2012; Z4	0.2347	1.51	0.16	0.8768	0.212	1.48	0.14	0.8856
Intersection Y2013; Z4	0.5154	2.16	0.24	0.8116	0.438	2.13	0.21	0.8371
Intersection Y2014; Z4	−3.0448	1.90	−1.60	0.1090	−2.923	1.82	−1.60	0.1092
Intersection Y2015; Z4	0.2728	2.77	0.10	0.9214	0.315	2.54	0.12	0.9014
Intersection Y2004; Z5	−0.0105	0.51	−0.02	0.9835	0.031	0.48	0.07	0.9480
Intersection Y2005; Z5	0.6297	0.84	0.75	0.4550	0.618	0.81	0.76	0.4446
Intersection Y2006; Z5	0.2070	0.55	0.37	0.7081	0.187	0.50	0.38	0.7059
Intersection Y2007; Z5	0.0729	0.83	0.09	0.9298	0.069	0.66	0.10	0.9172
Intersection Y2008; Z5	0.1937	0.27	0.73	0.4671	0.213	0.27	0.80	0.4242
Intersection Y2009; Z5	−0.1955	1.50	−0.13	0.8963	−0.213	1.54	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2010; Z5	−0.2815	0.75	−0.37	0.7091	−0.277	0.71	−0.39	0.6966
Intersection Y2011; Z5	−0.2054	1.56	−0.13	0.8952	−0.218	1.57	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2012; Z5	−2.8803	1.26	−2.28	0.0227	−2.668	1.28	−2.08	0.0372
Intersection Y2013; Z5	0.4331	2.37	0.18	0.8549	0.410	2.34	0.17	0.8612
Intersection Y2014; Z5	0.2862	2.31	0.12	0.9014	0.284	2.39	0.12	0.9055
Intersection Y2015; Z5	0.6304	2.25	0.28	0.7798	0.631	2.06	0.31	0.7592
Intersection Y2004; Z6	0.1148	1.18	0.10	0.9222	0.147	1.17	0.13	0.8999
Intersection Y2005; Z6	0.3760	1.83	0.21	0.8376	0.364	1.73	0.21	0.8334
Intersection Y2006; Z6	0.2739	1.23	0.22	0.8235	0.278	1.20	0.23	0.8169
Intersection Y2007; Z6	−0.0045	1.65	0.00	0.9978	0.003	1.66	0.00	0.9984
Intersection Y2008; Z6	0.2240	1.28	0.18	0.8607	0.237	1.24	0.19	0.8481
Intersection Y2009; Z6	0.1171	1.70	0.07	0.9449	0.102	1.63	0.06	0.9498
Intersection Y2010; Z6	−0.1259	1.62	−0.08	0.9381	−0.085	1.45	−0.06	0.9536
Intersection Y2011; Z6	0.3649	1.26	0.29	0.7719	0.345	1.37	0.25	0.8011
Intersection Y2012; Z6	−2.9063	1.26	−2.30	0.0213	−2.720	1.28	−2.12	0.0342
Intersection Y2013; Z6	−2.5830	1.79	−1.44	0.1491	−2.419	1.75	−1.38	0.1667
Intersection Y2014; Z6	−2.8144	1.90	−1.48	0.1384	−2.583	1.82	−1.42	0.1569
Intersection Y2015; Z6	0.6249	2.70	0.23	0.8171	0.626	2.57	0.24	0.8076
Intersection Y2004; Z7	0.4348	2.10	0.21	0.8361	0.466	2.03	0.23	0.8184
Intersection Y2005; Z7	0.6428	2.18	0.30	0.7677	0.695	2.14	0.32	0.7458
Intersection Y2006; Z7	0.5102	2.10	0.24	0.8082	0.533	2.06	0.26	0.7963
Intersection Y2007; Z7	0.6356	1.63	0.39	0.6958	0.676	1.77	0.38	0.7029
Intersection Y2008; Z7	−2.9708	1.23	−2.42	0.0157	−2.770	1.17	−2.37	0.0176
Intersection Y2009; Z7	−2.8280	1.32	−2.14	0.0321	−2.664	1.26	−2.11	0.0351
Intersection Y2010; Z7	0.2189	2.12	0.10	0.9177	0.240	1.99	0.12	0.9042
Intersection Y2011; Z7	−2.8463	1.29	−2.20	0.0276	−2.686	1.30	−2.06	0.0395
Intersection Y2012; Z7	0.8250	2.50	0.33	0.7410	0.863	2.38	0.36	0.7164
Intersection Y2013; Z7	−2.2470	2.16	−1.04	0.2983	−2.105	2.03	−1.04	0.2995
Intersection Y2014; Z7	−2.4421	2.26	−1.08	0.2803	−2.258	2.16	−1.04	0.2969
Intersection Y2015; Z7	−2.4361	2.41	−1.01	0.3124	−2.267	2.23	−1.02	0.3091

Variables

3 km radius

5 km radius

Estimate

Std. error

z-score

Pr(>|z|)

Estimate

Std. error

z-score

Pr(>|z|)

Year 2004

−0.6538

0.17

−3.90

0.0001

−0.682

0.16

−4.25

0.0000

Year 2005

−1.1064

0.82

−1.34

0.1789

−1.086

0.78

−1.39

0.1644

Year 2006

−0.7655

0.36

−2.12

0.0337

−0.769

0.45

−1.72

0.0859

Year 2007

−0.7145

0.33

−2.20

0.0281

−0.721

0.26

−2.76

0.0057

Year 2008

−0.5891

0.17

−3.42

0.0006

−0.611

0.18

−3.49

0.0005

Year 2009

−0.7158

0.49

−1.46

0.1437

−0.711

0.43

−1.67

0.0957

Year 2010

−0.3124

0.15

−2.15

0.0319

−0.331

0.15

−2.25

0.0247

Year 2011

−0.6984

0.52

−1.34

0.1819

−0.689

0.63

−1.09

0.2768

Year 2012

−0.9177

1.27

−0.72

0.4689

−0.946

1.28

−0.74

0.4594

Year 2013

−1.2887

1.79

−0.72

0.4707

−1.264

1.75

−0.72

0.4691

Year 2014

−1.1003

1.90

−0.58

0.5627

−1.116

1.83

−0.61

0.5416

Year 2015

−1.1150

2.09

−0.53

0.5934

−1.114

1.90

−0.59

0.5580

Zone 2

−0.9497

0.17

−5.44

0.0000

−0.840

0.15

−5.51

0.0000

Zone 3

−0.3996

0.10

−3.95

0.0001

−0.438

0.10

−4.30

0.0000

Zone 4

−0.3963

0.10

−4.00

0.0001

−0.398

0.10

−3.87

0.0001

Zone 5

−0.5576

0.10

−5.41

0.0000

−0.569

0.10

−5.55

0.0000

Zone 6

−0.4851

0.16

−3.07

0.0022

−0.495

0.15

−3.35

0.0008

Zone 7

−0.7199

1.22

−0.59

0.5553

−0.730

1.16

−0.63

0.5279

Intersection Y2004; Z2

0.2863

1.16

0.25

0.8046

0.180

1.10

0.16

0.8697

Intersection Y2005; Z2

−0.3683

1.85

−0.20

0.8422

−0.190

1.78

−0.11

0.9148

Intersection Y2006; Z2

−2.7823

0.39

−7.12

0.0000

−2.727

0.47

−5.78

0.0000

Intersection Y2007; Z2

0.2987

1.52

0.20

0.8444

0.149

1.59

0.09

0.9251

Intersection Y2008; Z2

0.1833

1.54

0.12

0.9051

0.028

1.51

0.02

0.9851

Intersection Y2009; Z2

0.3319

1.65

0.20

0.8409

0.166

1.67

0.10

0.9207

Intersection Y2010; Z2

−3.2392

0.22

−14.98

0.0000

−3.173

0.20

−15.66

0.0000

Intersection Y2011; Z2

0.3655

1.68

0.22

0.8281

0.229

1.66

0.14

0.8904

Intersection Y2012; Z2

0.4985

2.00

0.25

0.8032

0.394

2.02

0.19

0.8455

Intersection Y2013; Z2

0.8807

2.33

0.38

0.7059

0.717

2.38

0.30

0.7637

Intersection Y2014; Z2

−2.3560

1.91

−1.24

0.2165

−2.340

1.84

−1.27

0.2027

Intersection Y2015; Z2

−2.5847

2.09

−1.24

0.2166

−2.349

1.90

−1.24

0.2158

Intersection Y2004; Z3

0.3207

0.22

1.49

0.1372

0.350

0.21

1.64

0.1001

Intersection Y2005; Z3

0.3270

1.05

0.31

0.7546

0.308

0.94

0.33

0.7429

Intersection Y2006; Z3

−0.0433

0.77

−0.06

0.9550

−0.068

0.67

−0.10

0.9192

Intersection Y2007; Z3

0.1374

0.53

0.26

0.7953

0.146

0.39

0.37

0.7111

Intersection Y2008; Z3

0.2793

0.22

1.28

0.2005

0.286

0.22

1.29

0.1978

Intersection Y2009; Z3

0.1248

0.67

0.19

0.8518

0.072

0.56

0.13

0.8970

Intersection Y2010; Z3

−0.2902

0.33

−0.87

0.3837

−0.301

0.42

−0.71

0.4753

Intersection Y2011; Z3

−0.1906

1.35

−0.14

0.8879

−0.229

1.26

−0.18

0.8555

Intersection Y2012; Z3

−3.2733

1.28

−2.55

0.0106

−3.155

1.28

−2.46

0.0137

Intersection Y2013; Z3

0.5307

2.00

0.27

0.7902

0.499

1.88

0.27

0.7908

Intersection Y2014; Z3

−3.0684

1.90

−1.62

0.1059

−2.988

1.82

−1.64

0.1013

Intersection Y2015; Z3

−3.6497

2.11

−1.73

0.0840

−3.088

1.90

−1.62

0.1042

Intersection Y2004; Z4

0.1240

0.21

0.58

0.5641

0.157

0.23

0.69

0.4896

Intersection Y2005; Z4

0.6318

0.83

0.76

0.4474

0.592

0.79

0.75

0.4552

Intersection Y2006; Z4

0.2102

0.39

0.54

0.5919

0.182

0.48

0.38

0.7064

Intersection Y2007; Z4

0.3905

0.34

1.15

0.2517

0.367

0.30

1.24

0.2142

Intersection Y2008; Z4

0.2005

0.22

0.92

0.3579

0.218

0.22

0.99

0.3203

Intersection Y2009; Z4

0.6635

0.51

1.31

0.1894

0.624

0.44

1.42

0.1557

Intersection Y2010; Z4

0.0111

0.19

0.06

0.9544

−0.011

0.19

−0.06

0.9525

Intersection Y2011; Z4

0.3617

0.54

0.67

0.5029

0.305

0.66

0.46

0.6456

Intersection Y2012; Z4

0.2347

1.51

0.16

0.8768

0.212

1.48

0.14

0.8856

Intersection Y2013; Z4

0.5154

2.16

0.24

0.8116

0.438

2.13

0.21

0.8371

Intersection Y2014; Z4

−3.0448

1.90

−1.60

0.1090

−2.923

1.82

−1.60

0.1092

Intersection Y2015; Z4

0.2728

2.77

0.10

0.9214

0.315

2.54

0.12

0.9014

Intersection Y2004; Z5

−0.0105

0.51

−0.02

0.9835

0.031

0.48

0.07

0.9480

Intersection Y2005; Z5

0.6297

0.84

0.75

0.4550

0.618

0.81

0.76

0.4446

Intersection Y2006; Z5

0.2070

0.55

0.37

0.7081

0.187

0.50

0.38

0.7059

Intersection Y2007; Z5

0.0729

0.83

0.09

0.9298

0.069

0.66

0.10

0.9172

Intersection Y2008; Z5

0.1937

0.27

0.73

0.4671

0.213

0.27

0.80

0.4242

Intersection Y2009; Z5

−0.1955

1.50

−0.13

0.8963

−0.213

1.54

−0.14

0.8899

Intersection Y2010; Z5

−0.2815

0.75

−0.37

0.7091

−0.277

0.71

−0.39

0.6966

Intersection Y2011; Z5

−0.2054

1.56

−0.13

0.8952

−0.218

1.57

−0.14

0.8899

Intersection Y2012; Z5

−2.8803

1.26

−2.28

0.0227

−2.668

1.28

−2.08

0.0372

Intersection Y2013; Z5

0.4331

2.37

0.18

0.8549

0.410

2.34

0.17

0.8612

Intersection Y2014; Z5

0.2862

2.31

0.12

0.9014

0.284

2.39

0.12

0.9055

Intersection Y2015; Z5

0.6304

2.25

0.28

0.7798

0.631

2.06

0.31

0.7592

Intersection Y2004; Z6

0.1148

1.18

0.10

0.9222

0.147

1.17

0.13

0.8999

Intersection Y2005; Z6

0.3760

1.83

0.21

0.8376

0.364

1.73

0.21

0.8334

Intersection Y2006; Z6

0.2739

1.23

0.22

0.8235

0.278

1.20

0.23

0.8169

Intersection Y2007; Z6

−0.0045

1.65

0.00

0.9978

0.003

1.66

0.00

0.9984

Intersection Y2008; Z6

0.2240

1.28

0.18

0.8607

0.237

1.24

0.19

0.8481

Intersection Y2009; Z6

0.1171

1.70

0.07

0.9449

0.102

1.63

0.06

0.9498

Intersection Y2010; Z6

−0.1259

1.62

−0.08

0.9381

−0.085

1.45

−0.06

0.9536

Intersection Y2011; Z6

0.3649

1.26

0.29

0.7719

0.345

1.37

0.25

0.8011

Intersection Y2012; Z6

−2.9063

1.26

−2.30

0.0213

−2.720

1.28

−2.12

0.0342

Intersection Y2013; Z6

−2.5830

1.79

−1.44

0.1491

−2.419

1.75

−1.38

0.1667

Intersection Y2014; Z6

−2.8144

1.90

−1.48

0.1384

−2.583

1.82

−1.42

0.1569

Intersection Y2015; Z6

0.6249

2.70

0.23

0.8171

0.626

2.57

0.24

0.8076

Intersection Y2004; Z7

0.4348

2.10

0.21

0.8361

0.466

2.03

0.23

0.8184

Intersection Y2005; Z7

0.6428

2.18

0.30

0.7677

0.695

2.14

0.32

0.7458

Intersection Y2006; Z7

0.5102

2.10

0.24

0.8082

0.533

2.06

0.26

0.7963

Intersection Y2007; Z7

0.6356

1.63

0.39

0.6958

0.676

1.77

0.38

0.7029

Intersection Y2008; Z7

−2.9708

1.23

−2.42

0.0157

−2.770

1.17

−2.37

0.0176

Intersection Y2009; Z7

−2.8280

1.32

−2.14

0.0321

−2.664

1.26

−2.11

0.0351

Intersection Y2010; Z7

0.2189

2.12

0.10

0.9177

0.240

1.99

0.12

0.9042

Intersection Y2011; Z7

−2.8463

1.29

−2.20

0.0276

−2.686

1.30

−2.06

0.0395

Intersection Y2012; Z7

0.8250

2.50

0.33

0.7410

0.863

2.38

0.36

0.7164

Intersection Y2013; Z7

−2.2470

2.16

−1.04

0.2983

−2.105

2.03

−1.04

0.2995

Intersection Y2014; Z7

−2.4421

2.26

−1.08

0.2803

−2.258

2.16

−1.04

0.2969

Intersection Y2015; Z7

−2.4361

2.41

−1.01

0.3124

−2.267

2.23

−1.02

0.3091

Variables	3 km radius	5 km radius
Year 2004	−0.6538	0.17	−3.90	0.0001	−0.682	0.16	−4.25	0.0000
Year 2005	−1.1064	0.82	−1.34	0.1789	−1.086	0.78	−1.39	0.1644
Year 2006	−0.7655	0.36	−2.12	0.0337	−0.769	0.45	−1.72	0.0859
Year 2007	−0.7145	0.33	−2.20	0.0281	−0.721	0.26	−2.76	0.0057
Year 2008	−0.5891	0.17	−3.42	0.0006	−0.611	0.18	−3.49	0.0005
Year 2009	−0.7158	0.49	−1.46	0.1437	−0.711	0.43	−1.67	0.0957
Year 2010	−0.3124	0.15	−2.15	0.0319	−0.331	0.15	−2.25	0.0247
Year 2011	−0.6984	0.52	−1.34	0.1819	−0.689	0.63	−1.09	0.2768
Year 2012	−0.9177	1.27	−0.72	0.4689	−0.946	1.28	−0.74	0.4594
Year 2013	−1.2887	1.79	−0.72	0.4707	−1.264	1.75	−0.72	0.4691
Year 2014	−1.1003	1.90	−0.58	0.5627	−1.116	1.83	−0.61	0.5416
Year 2015	−1.1150	2.09	−0.53	0.5934	−1.114	1.90	−0.59	0.5580
Zone 2	−0.9497	0.17	−5.44	0.0000	−0.840	0.15	−5.51	0.0000
Zone 3	−0.3996	0.10	−3.95	0.0001	−0.438	0.10	−4.30	0.0000
Zone 4	−0.3963	0.10	−4.00	0.0001	−0.398	0.10	−3.87	0.0001
Zone 5	−0.5576	0.10	−5.41	0.0000	−0.569	0.10	−5.55	0.0000
Zone 6	−0.4851	0.16	−3.07	0.0022	−0.495	0.15	−3.35	0.0008
Zone 7	−0.7199	1.22	−0.59	0.5553	−0.730	1.16	−0.63	0.5279
Intersection Y2004; Z2	0.2863	1.16	0.25	0.8046	0.180	1.10	0.16	0.8697
Intersection Y2005; Z2	−0.3683	1.85	−0.20	0.8422	−0.190	1.78	−0.11	0.9148
Intersection Y2006; Z2	−2.7823	0.39	−7.12	0.0000	−2.727	0.47	−5.78	0.0000
Intersection Y2007; Z2	0.2987	1.52	0.20	0.8444	0.149	1.59	0.09	0.9251
Intersection Y2008; Z2	0.1833	1.54	0.12	0.9051	0.028	1.51	0.02	0.9851
Intersection Y2009; Z2	0.3319	1.65	0.20	0.8409	0.166	1.67	0.10	0.9207
Intersection Y2010; Z2	−3.2392	0.22	−14.98	0.0000	−3.173	0.20	−15.66	0.0000
Intersection Y2011; Z2	0.3655	1.68	0.22	0.8281	0.229	1.66	0.14	0.8904
Intersection Y2012; Z2	0.4985	2.00	0.25	0.8032	0.394	2.02	0.19	0.8455
Intersection Y2013; Z2	0.8807	2.33	0.38	0.7059	0.717	2.38	0.30	0.7637
Intersection Y2014; Z2	−2.3560	1.91	−1.24	0.2165	−2.340	1.84	−1.27	0.2027
Intersection Y2015; Z2	−2.5847	2.09	−1.24	0.2166	−2.349	1.90	−1.24	0.2158
Intersection Y2004; Z3	0.3207	0.22	1.49	0.1372	0.350	0.21	1.64	0.1001
Intersection Y2005; Z3	0.3270	1.05	0.31	0.7546	0.308	0.94	0.33	0.7429
Intersection Y2006; Z3	−0.0433	0.77	−0.06	0.9550	−0.068	0.67	−0.10	0.9192
Intersection Y2007; Z3	0.1374	0.53	0.26	0.7953	0.146	0.39	0.37	0.7111
Intersection Y2008; Z3	0.2793	0.22	1.28	0.2005	0.286	0.22	1.29	0.1978
Intersection Y2009; Z3	0.1248	0.67	0.19	0.8518	0.072	0.56	0.13	0.8970
Intersection Y2010; Z3	−0.2902	0.33	−0.87	0.3837	−0.301	0.42	−0.71	0.4753
Intersection Y2011; Z3	−0.1906	1.35	−0.14	0.8879	−0.229	1.26	−0.18	0.8555
Intersection Y2012; Z3	−3.2733	1.28	−2.55	0.0106	−3.155	1.28	−2.46	0.0137
Intersection Y2013; Z3	0.5307	2.00	0.27	0.7902	0.499	1.88	0.27	0.7908
Intersection Y2014; Z3	−3.0684	1.90	−1.62	0.1059	−2.988	1.82	−1.64	0.1013
Intersection Y2015; Z3	−3.6497	2.11	−1.73	0.0840	−3.088	1.90	−1.62	0.1042
Intersection Y2004; Z4	0.1240	0.21	0.58	0.5641	0.157	0.23	0.69	0.4896
Intersection Y2005; Z4	0.6318	0.83	0.76	0.4474	0.592	0.79	0.75	0.4552
Intersection Y2006; Z4	0.2102	0.39	0.54	0.5919	0.182	0.48	0.38	0.7064
Intersection Y2007; Z4	0.3905	0.34	1.15	0.2517	0.367	0.30	1.24	0.2142
Intersection Y2008; Z4	0.2005	0.22	0.92	0.3579	0.218	0.22	0.99	0.3203
Intersection Y2009; Z4	0.6635	0.51	1.31	0.1894	0.624	0.44	1.42	0.1557
Intersection Y2010; Z4	0.0111	0.19	0.06	0.9544	−0.011	0.19	−0.06	0.9525
Intersection Y2011; Z4	0.3617	0.54	0.67	0.5029	0.305	0.66	0.46	0.6456
Intersection Y2012; Z4	0.2347	1.51	0.16	0.8768	0.212	1.48	0.14	0.8856
Intersection Y2013; Z4	0.5154	2.16	0.24	0.8116	0.438	2.13	0.21	0.8371
Intersection Y2014; Z4	−3.0448	1.90	−1.60	0.1090	−2.923	1.82	−1.60	0.1092
Intersection Y2015; Z4	0.2728	2.77	0.10	0.9214	0.315	2.54	0.12	0.9014
Intersection Y2004; Z5	−0.0105	0.51	−0.02	0.9835	0.031	0.48	0.07	0.9480
Intersection Y2005; Z5	0.6297	0.84	0.75	0.4550	0.618	0.81	0.76	0.4446
Intersection Y2006; Z5	0.2070	0.55	0.37	0.7081	0.187	0.50	0.38	0.7059
Intersection Y2007; Z5	0.0729	0.83	0.09	0.9298	0.069	0.66	0.10	0.9172
Intersection Y2008; Z5	0.1937	0.27	0.73	0.4671	0.213	0.27	0.80	0.4242
Intersection Y2009; Z5	−0.1955	1.50	−0.13	0.8963	−0.213	1.54	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2010; Z5	−0.2815	0.75	−0.37	0.7091	−0.277	0.71	−0.39	0.6966
Intersection Y2011; Z5	−0.2054	1.56	−0.13	0.8952	−0.218	1.57	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2012; Z5	−2.8803	1.26	−2.28	0.0227	−2.668	1.28	−2.08	0.0372
Intersection Y2013; Z5	0.4331	2.37	0.18	0.8549	0.410	2.34	0.17	0.8612
Intersection Y2014; Z5	0.2862	2.31	0.12	0.9014	0.284	2.39	0.12	0.9055
Intersection Y2015; Z5	0.6304	2.25	0.28	0.7798	0.631	2.06	0.31	0.7592
Intersection Y2004; Z6	0.1148	1.18	0.10	0.9222	0.147	1.17	0.13	0.8999
Intersection Y2005; Z6	0.3760	1.83	0.21	0.8376	0.364	1.73	0.21	0.8334
Intersection Y2006; Z6	0.2739	1.23	0.22	0.8235	0.278	1.20	0.23	0.8169
Intersection Y2007; Z6	−0.0045	1.65	0.00	0.9978	0.003	1.66	0.00	0.9984
Intersection Y2008; Z6	0.2240	1.28	0.18	0.8607	0.237	1.24	0.19	0.8481
Intersection Y2009; Z6	0.1171	1.70	0.07	0.9449	0.102	1.63	0.06	0.9498
Intersection Y2010; Z6	−0.1259	1.62	−0.08	0.9381	−0.085	1.45	−0.06	0.9536
Intersection Y2011; Z6	0.3649	1.26	0.29	0.7719	0.345	1.37	0.25	0.8011
Intersection Y2012; Z6	−2.9063	1.26	−2.30	0.0213	−2.720	1.28	−2.12	0.0342
Intersection Y2013; Z6	−2.5830	1.79	−1.44	0.1491	−2.419	1.75	−1.38	0.1667
Intersection Y2014; Z6	−2.8144	1.90	−1.48	0.1384	−2.583	1.82	−1.42	0.1569
Intersection Y2015; Z6	0.6249	2.70	0.23	0.8171	0.626	2.57	0.24	0.8076
Intersection Y2004; Z7	0.4348	2.10	0.21	0.8361	0.466	2.03	0.23	0.8184
Intersection Y2005; Z7	0.6428	2.18	0.30	0.7677	0.695	2.14	0.32	0.7458
Intersection Y2006; Z7	0.5102	2.10	0.24	0.8082	0.533	2.06	0.26	0.7963
Intersection Y2007; Z7	0.6356	1.63	0.39	0.6958	0.676	1.77	0.38	0.7029
Intersection Y2008; Z7	−2.9708	1.23	−2.42	0.0157	−2.770	1.17	−2.37	0.0176
Intersection Y2009; Z7	−2.8280	1.32	−2.14	0.0321	−2.664	1.26	−2.11	0.0351
Intersection Y2010; Z7	0.2189	2.12	0.10	0.9177	0.240	1.99	0.12	0.9042
Intersection Y2011; Z7	−2.8463	1.29	−2.20	0.0276	−2.686	1.30	−2.06	0.0395
Intersection Y2012; Z7	0.8250	2.50	0.33	0.7410	0.863	2.38	0.36	0.7164
Intersection Y2013; Z7	−2.2470	2.16	−1.04	0.2983	−2.105	2.03	−1.04	0.2995
Intersection Y2014; Z7	−2.4421	2.26	−1.08	0.2803	−2.258	2.16	−1.04	0.2969
Intersection Y2015; Z7	−2.4361	2.41	−1.01	0.3124	−2.267	2.23	−1.02	0.3091

Variables

3 km radius

5 km radius

Estimate

Std. error

z-score

Pr(>|z|)

Estimate

Std. error

z-score

Pr(>|z|)

Year 2004

−0.6538

0.17

−3.90

0.0001

−0.682

0.16

−4.25

0.0000

Year 2005

−1.1064

0.82

−1.34

0.1789

−1.086

0.78

−1.39

0.1644

Year 2006

−0.7655

0.36

−2.12

0.0337

−0.769

0.45

−1.72

0.0859

Year 2007

−0.7145

0.33

−2.20

0.0281

−0.721

0.26

−2.76

0.0057

Year 2008

−0.5891

0.17

−3.42

0.0006

−0.611

0.18

−3.49

0.0005

Year 2009

−0.7158

0.49

−1.46

0.1437

−0.711

0.43

−1.67

0.0957

Year 2010

−0.3124

0.15

−2.15

0.0319

−0.331

0.15

−2.25

0.0247

Year 2011

−0.6984

0.52

−1.34

0.1819

−0.689

0.63

−1.09

0.2768

Year 2012

−0.9177

1.27

−0.72

0.4689

−0.946

1.28

−0.74

0.4594

Year 2013

−1.2887

1.79

−0.72

0.4707

−1.264

1.75

−0.72

0.4691

Year 2014

−1.1003

1.90

−0.58

0.5627

−1.116

1.83

−0.61

0.5416

Year 2015

−1.1150

2.09

−0.53

0.5934

−1.114

1.90

−0.59

0.5580

Zone 2

−0.9497

0.17

−5.44

0.0000

−0.840

0.15

−5.51

0.0000

Zone 3

−0.3996

0.10

−3.95

0.0001

−0.438

0.10

−4.30

0.0000

Zone 4

−0.3963

0.10

−4.00

0.0001

−0.398

0.10

−3.87

0.0001

Zone 5

−0.5576

0.10

−5.41

0.0000

−0.569

0.10

−5.55

0.0000

Zone 6

−0.4851

0.16

−3.07

0.0022

−0.495

0.15

−3.35

0.0008

Zone 7

−0.7199

1.22

−0.59

0.5553

−0.730

1.16

−0.63

0.5279

Intersection Y2004; Z2

0.2863

1.16

0.25

0.8046

0.180

1.10

0.16

0.8697

Intersection Y2005; Z2

−0.3683

1.85

−0.20

0.8422

−0.190

1.78

−0.11

0.9148

Intersection Y2006; Z2

−2.7823

0.39

−7.12

0.0000

−2.727

0.47

−5.78

0.0000

Intersection Y2007; Z2

0.2987

1.52

0.20

0.8444

0.149

1.59

0.09

0.9251

Intersection Y2008; Z2

0.1833

1.54

0.12

0.9051

0.028

1.51

0.02

0.9851

Intersection Y2009; Z2

0.3319

1.65

0.20

0.8409

0.166

1.67

0.10

0.9207

Intersection Y2010; Z2

−3.2392

0.22

−14.98

0.0000

−3.173

0.20

−15.66

0.0000

Intersection Y2011; Z2

0.3655

1.68

0.22

0.8281

0.229

1.66

0.14

0.8904

Intersection Y2012; Z2

0.4985

2.00

0.25

0.8032

0.394

2.02

0.19

0.8455

Intersection Y2013; Z2

0.8807

2.33

0.38

0.7059

0.717

2.38

0.30

0.7637

Intersection Y2014; Z2

−2.3560

1.91

−1.24

0.2165

−2.340

1.84

−1.27

0.2027

Intersection Y2015; Z2

−2.5847

2.09

−1.24

0.2166

−2.349

1.90

−1.24

0.2158

Intersection Y2004; Z3

0.3207

0.22

1.49

0.1372

0.350

0.21

1.64

0.1001

Intersection Y2005; Z3

0.3270

1.05

0.31

0.7546

0.308

0.94

0.33

0.7429

Intersection Y2006; Z3

−0.0433

0.77

−0.06

0.9550

−0.068

0.67

−0.10

0.9192

Intersection Y2007; Z3

0.1374

0.53

0.26

0.7953

0.146

0.39

0.37

0.7111

Intersection Y2008; Z3

0.2793

0.22

1.28

0.2005

0.286

0.22

1.29

0.1978

Intersection Y2009; Z3

0.1248

0.67

0.19

0.8518

0.072

0.56

0.13

0.8970

Intersection Y2010; Z3

−0.2902

0.33

−0.87

0.3837

−0.301

0.42

−0.71

0.4753

Intersection Y2011; Z3

−0.1906

1.35

−0.14

0.8879

−0.229

1.26

−0.18

0.8555

Intersection Y2012; Z3

−3.2733

1.28

−2.55

0.0106

−3.155

1.28

−2.46

0.0137

Intersection Y2013; Z3

0.5307

2.00

0.27

0.7902

0.499

1.88

0.27

0.7908

Intersection Y2014; Z3

−3.0684

1.90

−1.62

0.1059

−2.988

1.82

−1.64

0.1013

Intersection Y2015; Z3

−3.6497

2.11

−1.73

0.0840

−3.088

1.90

−1.62

0.1042

Intersection Y2004; Z4

0.1240

0.21

0.58

0.5641

0.157

0.23

0.69

0.4896

Intersection Y2005; Z4

0.6318

0.83

0.76

0.4474

0.592

0.79

0.75

0.4552

Intersection Y2006; Z4

0.2102

0.39

0.54

0.5919

0.182

0.48

0.38

0.7064

Intersection Y2007; Z4

0.3905

0.34

1.15

0.2517

0.367

0.30

1.24

0.2142

Intersection Y2008; Z4

0.2005

0.22

0.92

0.3579

0.218

0.22

0.99

0.3203

Intersection Y2009; Z4

0.6635

0.51

1.31

0.1894

0.624

0.44

1.42

0.1557

Intersection Y2010; Z4

0.0111

0.19

0.06

0.9544

−0.011

0.19

−0.06

0.9525

Intersection Y2011; Z4

0.3617

0.54

0.67

0.5029

0.305

0.66

0.46

0.6456

Intersection Y2012; Z4

0.2347

1.51

0.16

0.8768

0.212

1.48

0.14

0.8856

Intersection Y2013; Z4

0.5154

2.16

0.24

0.8116

0.438

2.13

0.21

0.8371

Intersection Y2014; Z4

−3.0448

1.90

−1.60

0.1090

−2.923

1.82

−1.60

0.1092

Intersection Y2015; Z4

0.2728

2.77

0.10

0.9214

0.315

2.54

0.12

0.9014

Intersection Y2004; Z5

−0.0105

0.51

−0.02

0.9835

0.031

0.48

0.07

0.9480

Intersection Y2005; Z5

0.6297

0.84

0.75

0.4550

0.618

0.81

0.76

0.4446

Intersection Y2006; Z5

0.2070

0.55

0.37

0.7081

0.187

0.50

0.38

0.7059

Intersection Y2007; Z5

0.0729

0.83

0.09

0.9298

0.069

0.66

0.10

0.9172

Intersection Y2008; Z5

0.1937

0.27

0.73

0.4671

0.213

0.27

0.80

0.4242

Intersection Y2009; Z5

−0.1955

1.50

−0.13

0.8963

−0.213

1.54

−0.14

0.8899

Intersection Y2010; Z5

−0.2815

0.75

−0.37

0.7091

−0.277

0.71

−0.39

0.6966

Intersection Y2011; Z5

−0.2054

1.56

−0.13

0.8952

−0.218

1.57

−0.14

0.8899

Intersection Y2012; Z5

−2.8803

1.26

−2.28

0.0227

−2.668

1.28

−2.08

0.0372

Intersection Y2013; Z5

0.4331

2.37

0.18

0.8549

0.410

2.34

0.17

0.8612

Intersection Y2014; Z5

0.2862

2.31

0.12

0.9014

0.284

2.39

0.12

0.9055

Intersection Y2015; Z5

0.6304

2.25

0.28

0.7798

0.631

2.06

0.31

0.7592

Intersection Y2004; Z6

0.1148

1.18

0.10

0.9222

0.147

1.17

0.13

0.8999

Intersection Y2005; Z6

0.3760

1.83

0.21

0.8376

0.364

1.73

0.21

0.8334

Intersection Y2006; Z6

0.2739

1.23

0.22

0.8235

0.278

1.20

0.23

0.8169

Intersection Y2007; Z6

−0.0045

1.65

0.00

0.9978

0.003

1.66

0.00

0.9984

Intersection Y2008; Z6

0.2240

1.28

0.18

0.8607

0.237

1.24

0.19

0.8481

Intersection Y2009; Z6

0.1171

1.70

0.07

0.9449

0.102

1.63

0.06

0.9498

Intersection Y2010; Z6

−0.1259

1.62

−0.08

0.9381

−0.085

1.45

−0.06

0.9536

Intersection Y2011; Z6

0.3649

1.26

0.29

0.7719

0.345

1.37

0.25

0.8011

Intersection Y2012; Z6

−2.9063

1.26

−2.30

0.0213

−2.720

1.28

−2.12

0.0342

Intersection Y2013; Z6

−2.5830

1.79

−1.44

0.1491

−2.419

1.75

−1.38

0.1667

Intersection Y2014; Z6

−2.8144

1.90

−1.48

0.1384

−2.583

1.82

−1.42

0.1569

Intersection Y2015; Z6

0.6249

2.70

0.23

0.8171

0.626

2.57

0.24

0.8076

Intersection Y2004; Z7

0.4348

2.10

0.21

0.8361

0.466

2.03

0.23

0.8184

Intersection Y2005; Z7

0.6428

2.18

0.30

0.7677

0.695

2.14

0.32

0.7458

Intersection Y2006; Z7

0.5102

2.10

0.24

0.8082

0.533

2.06

0.26

0.7963

Intersection Y2007; Z7

0.6356

1.63

0.39

0.6958

0.676

1.77

0.38

0.7029

Intersection Y2008; Z7

−2.9708

1.23

−2.42

0.0157

−2.770

1.17

−2.37

0.0176

Intersection Y2009; Z7

−2.8280

1.32

−2.14

0.0321

−2.664

1.26

−2.11

0.0351

Intersection Y2010; Z7

0.2189

2.12

0.10

0.9177

0.240

1.99

0.12

0.9042

Intersection Y2011; Z7

−2.8463

1.29

−2.20

0.0276

−2.686

1.30

−2.06

0.0395

Intersection Y2012; Z7

0.8250

2.50

0.33

0.7410

0.863

2.38

0.36

0.7164

Intersection Y2013; Z7

−2.2470

2.16

−1.04

0.2983

−2.105

2.03

−1.04

0.2995

Intersection Y2014; Z7

−2.4421

2.26

−1.08

0.2803

−2.258

2.16

−1.04

0.2969

Intersection Y2015; Z7

−2.4361

2.41

−1.01

0.3124

−2.267

2.23

−1.02

0.3091

Table A.1.

Open in new tab

Supplementary parameter estimates for 3 and 5 km radii.

Variables	3 km radius				5 km radius
	Estimate	Std. error	z-score	Pr(>\|z\|)	Estimate	Std. error	z-score	Pr(>\|z\|)
Year 2004	−0.6538	0.17	−3.90	0.0001	−0.682	0.16	−4.25	0.0000
Year 2005	−1.1064	0.82	−1.34	0.1789	−1.086	0.78	−1.39	0.1644
Year 2006	−0.7655	0.36	−2.12	0.0337	−0.769	0.45	−1.72	0.0859
Year 2007	−0.7145	0.33	−2.20	0.0281	−0.721	0.26	−2.76	0.0057
Year 2008	−0.5891	0.17	−3.42	0.0006	−0.611	0.18	−3.49	0.0005
Year 2009	−0.7158	0.49	−1.46	0.1437	−0.711	0.43	−1.67	0.0957
Year 2010	−0.3124	0.15	−2.15	0.0319	−0.331	0.15	−2.25	0.0247
Year 2011	−0.6984	0.52	−1.34	0.1819	−0.689	0.63	−1.09	0.2768
Year 2012	−0.9177	1.27	−0.72	0.4689	−0.946	1.28	−0.74	0.4594
Year 2013	−1.2887	1.79	−0.72	0.4707	−1.264	1.75	−0.72	0.4691
Year 2014	−1.1003	1.90	−0.58	0.5627	−1.116	1.83	−0.61	0.5416
Year 2015	−1.1150	2.09	−0.53	0.5934	−1.114	1.90	−0.59	0.5580
Zone 2	−0.9497	0.17	−5.44	0.0000	−0.840	0.15	−5.51	0.0000
Zone 3	−0.3996	0.10	−3.95	0.0001	−0.438	0.10	−4.30	0.0000
Zone 4	−0.3963	0.10	−4.00	0.0001	−0.398	0.10	−3.87	0.0001
Zone 5	−0.5576	0.10	−5.41	0.0000	−0.569	0.10	−5.55	0.0000
Zone 6	−0.4851	0.16	−3.07	0.0022	−0.495	0.15	−3.35	0.0008
Zone 7	−0.7199	1.22	−0.59	0.5553	−0.730	1.16	−0.63	0.5279
Intersection Y2004; Z2	0.2863	1.16	0.25	0.8046	0.180	1.10	0.16	0.8697
Intersection Y2005; Z2	−0.3683	1.85	−0.20	0.8422	−0.190	1.78	−0.11	0.9148
Intersection Y2006; Z2	−2.7823	0.39	−7.12	0.0000	−2.727	0.47	−5.78	0.0000
Intersection Y2007; Z2	0.2987	1.52	0.20	0.8444	0.149	1.59	0.09	0.9251
Intersection Y2008; Z2	0.1833	1.54	0.12	0.9051	0.028	1.51	0.02	0.9851
Intersection Y2009; Z2	0.3319	1.65	0.20	0.8409	0.166	1.67	0.10	0.9207
Intersection Y2010; Z2	−3.2392	0.22	−14.98	0.0000	−3.173	0.20	−15.66	0.0000
Intersection Y2011; Z2	0.3655	1.68	0.22	0.8281	0.229	1.66	0.14	0.8904
Intersection Y2012; Z2	0.4985	2.00	0.25	0.8032	0.394	2.02	0.19	0.8455
Intersection Y2013; Z2	0.8807	2.33	0.38	0.7059	0.717	2.38	0.30	0.7637
Intersection Y2014; Z2	−2.3560	1.91	−1.24	0.2165	−2.340	1.84	−1.27	0.2027
Intersection Y2015; Z2	−2.5847	2.09	−1.24	0.2166	−2.349	1.90	−1.24	0.2158
Intersection Y2004; Z3	0.3207	0.22	1.49	0.1372	0.350	0.21	1.64	0.1001
Intersection Y2005; Z3	0.3270	1.05	0.31	0.7546	0.308	0.94	0.33	0.7429
Intersection Y2006; Z3	−0.0433	0.77	−0.06	0.9550	−0.068	0.67	−0.10	0.9192
Intersection Y2007; Z3	0.1374	0.53	0.26	0.7953	0.146	0.39	0.37	0.7111
Intersection Y2008; Z3	0.2793	0.22	1.28	0.2005	0.286	0.22	1.29	0.1978
Intersection Y2009; Z3	0.1248	0.67	0.19	0.8518	0.072	0.56	0.13	0.8970
Intersection Y2010; Z3	−0.2902	0.33	−0.87	0.3837	−0.301	0.42	−0.71	0.4753
Intersection Y2011; Z3	−0.1906	1.35	−0.14	0.8879	−0.229	1.26	−0.18	0.8555
Intersection Y2012; Z3	−3.2733	1.28	−2.55	0.0106	−3.155	1.28	−2.46	0.0137
Intersection Y2013; Z3	0.5307	2.00	0.27	0.7902	0.499	1.88	0.27	0.7908
Intersection Y2014; Z3	−3.0684	1.90	−1.62	0.1059	−2.988	1.82	−1.64	0.1013
Intersection Y2015; Z3	−3.6497	2.11	−1.73	0.0840	−3.088	1.90	−1.62	0.1042
Intersection Y2004; Z4	0.1240	0.21	0.58	0.5641	0.157	0.23	0.69	0.4896
Intersection Y2005; Z4	0.6318	0.83	0.76	0.4474	0.592	0.79	0.75	0.4552
Intersection Y2006; Z4	0.2102	0.39	0.54	0.5919	0.182	0.48	0.38	0.7064
Intersection Y2007; Z4	0.3905	0.34	1.15	0.2517	0.367	0.30	1.24	0.2142
Intersection Y2008; Z4	0.2005	0.22	0.92	0.3579	0.218	0.22	0.99	0.3203
Intersection Y2009; Z4	0.6635	0.51	1.31	0.1894	0.624	0.44	1.42	0.1557
Intersection Y2010; Z4	0.0111	0.19	0.06	0.9544	−0.011	0.19	−0.06	0.9525
Intersection Y2011; Z4	0.3617	0.54	0.67	0.5029	0.305	0.66	0.46	0.6456
Intersection Y2012; Z4	0.2347	1.51	0.16	0.8768	0.212	1.48	0.14	0.8856
Intersection Y2013; Z4	0.5154	2.16	0.24	0.8116	0.438	2.13	0.21	0.8371
Intersection Y2014; Z4	−3.0448	1.90	−1.60	0.1090	−2.923	1.82	−1.60	0.1092
Intersection Y2015; Z4	0.2728	2.77	0.10	0.9214	0.315	2.54	0.12	0.9014
Intersection Y2004; Z5	−0.0105	0.51	−0.02	0.9835	0.031	0.48	0.07	0.9480
Intersection Y2005; Z5	0.6297	0.84	0.75	0.4550	0.618	0.81	0.76	0.4446
Intersection Y2006; Z5	0.2070	0.55	0.37	0.7081	0.187	0.50	0.38	0.7059
Intersection Y2007; Z5	0.0729	0.83	0.09	0.9298	0.069	0.66	0.10	0.9172
Intersection Y2008; Z5	0.1937	0.27	0.73	0.4671	0.213	0.27	0.80	0.4242
Intersection Y2009; Z5	−0.1955	1.50	−0.13	0.8963	−0.213	1.54	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2010; Z5	−0.2815	0.75	−0.37	0.7091	−0.277	0.71	−0.39	0.6966
Intersection Y2011; Z5	−0.2054	1.56	−0.13	0.8952	−0.218	1.57	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2012; Z5	−2.8803	1.26	−2.28	0.0227	−2.668	1.28	−2.08	0.0372
Intersection Y2013; Z5	0.4331	2.37	0.18	0.8549	0.410	2.34	0.17	0.8612
Intersection Y2014; Z5	0.2862	2.31	0.12	0.9014	0.284	2.39	0.12	0.9055
Intersection Y2015; Z5	0.6304	2.25	0.28	0.7798	0.631	2.06	0.31	0.7592
Intersection Y2004; Z6	0.1148	1.18	0.10	0.9222	0.147	1.17	0.13	0.8999
Intersection Y2005; Z6	0.3760	1.83	0.21	0.8376	0.364	1.73	0.21	0.8334
Intersection Y2006; Z6	0.2739	1.23	0.22	0.8235	0.278	1.20	0.23	0.8169
Intersection Y2007; Z6	−0.0045	1.65	0.00	0.9978	0.003	1.66	0.00	0.9984
Intersection Y2008; Z6	0.2240	1.28	0.18	0.8607	0.237	1.24	0.19	0.8481
Intersection Y2009; Z6	0.1171	1.70	0.07	0.9449	0.102	1.63	0.06	0.9498
Intersection Y2010; Z6	−0.1259	1.62	−0.08	0.9381	−0.085	1.45	−0.06	0.9536
Intersection Y2011; Z6	0.3649	1.26	0.29	0.7719	0.345	1.37	0.25	0.8011
Intersection Y2012; Z6	−2.9063	1.26	−2.30	0.0213	−2.720	1.28	−2.12	0.0342
Intersection Y2013; Z6	−2.5830	1.79	−1.44	0.1491	−2.419	1.75	−1.38	0.1667
Intersection Y2014; Z6	−2.8144	1.90	−1.48	0.1384	−2.583	1.82	−1.42	0.1569
Intersection Y2015; Z6	0.6249	2.70	0.23	0.8171	0.626	2.57	0.24	0.8076
Intersection Y2004; Z7	0.4348	2.10	0.21	0.8361	0.466	2.03	0.23	0.8184
Intersection Y2005; Z7	0.6428	2.18	0.30	0.7677	0.695	2.14	0.32	0.7458
Intersection Y2006; Z7	0.5102	2.10	0.24	0.8082	0.533	2.06	0.26	0.7963
Intersection Y2007; Z7	0.6356	1.63	0.39	0.6958	0.676	1.77	0.38	0.7029
Intersection Y2008; Z7	−2.9708	1.23	−2.42	0.0157	−2.770	1.17	−2.37	0.0176
Intersection Y2009; Z7	−2.8280	1.32	−2.14	0.0321	−2.664	1.26	−2.11	0.0351
Intersection Y2010; Z7	0.2189	2.12	0.10	0.9177	0.240	1.99	0.12	0.9042
Intersection Y2011; Z7	−2.8463	1.29	−2.20	0.0276	−2.686	1.30	−2.06	0.0395
Intersection Y2012; Z7	0.8250	2.50	0.33	0.7410	0.863	2.38	0.36	0.7164
Intersection Y2013; Z7	−2.2470	2.16	−1.04	0.2983	−2.105	2.03	−1.04	0.2995
Intersection Y2014; Z7	−2.4421	2.26	−1.08	0.2803	−2.258	2.16	−1.04	0.2969
Intersection Y2015; Z7	−2.4361	2.41	−1.01	0.3124	−2.267	2.23	−1.02	0.3091

Variables	3 km radius				5 km radius
	Estimate	Std. error	z-score	Pr(>\|z\|)	Estimate	Std. error	z-score	Pr(>\|z\|)
Year 2004	−0.6538	0.17	−3.90	0.0001	−0.682	0.16	−4.25	0.0000
Year 2005	−1.1064	0.82	−1.34	0.1789	−1.086	0.78	−1.39	0.1644
Year 2006	−0.7655	0.36	−2.12	0.0337	−0.769	0.45	−1.72	0.0859
Year 2007	−0.7145	0.33	−2.20	0.0281	−0.721	0.26	−2.76	0.0057
Year 2008	−0.5891	0.17	−3.42	0.0006	−0.611	0.18	−3.49	0.0005
Year 2009	−0.7158	0.49	−1.46	0.1437	−0.711	0.43	−1.67	0.0957
Year 2010	−0.3124	0.15	−2.15	0.0319	−0.331	0.15	−2.25	0.0247
Year 2011	−0.6984	0.52	−1.34	0.1819	−0.689	0.63	−1.09	0.2768
Year 2012	−0.9177	1.27	−0.72	0.4689	−0.946	1.28	−0.74	0.4594
Year 2013	−1.2887	1.79	−0.72	0.4707	−1.264	1.75	−0.72	0.4691
Year 2014	−1.1003	1.90	−0.58	0.5627	−1.116	1.83	−0.61	0.5416
Year 2015	−1.1150	2.09	−0.53	0.5934	−1.114	1.90	−0.59	0.5580
Zone 2	−0.9497	0.17	−5.44	0.0000	−0.840	0.15	−5.51	0.0000
Zone 3	−0.3996	0.10	−3.95	0.0001	−0.438	0.10	−4.30	0.0000
Zone 4	−0.3963	0.10	−4.00	0.0001	−0.398	0.10	−3.87	0.0001
Zone 5	−0.5576	0.10	−5.41	0.0000	−0.569	0.10	−5.55	0.0000
Zone 6	−0.4851	0.16	−3.07	0.0022	−0.495	0.15	−3.35	0.0008
Zone 7	−0.7199	1.22	−0.59	0.5553	−0.730	1.16	−0.63	0.5279
Intersection Y2004; Z2	0.2863	1.16	0.25	0.8046	0.180	1.10	0.16	0.8697
Intersection Y2005; Z2	−0.3683	1.85	−0.20	0.8422	−0.190	1.78	−0.11	0.9148
Intersection Y2006; Z2	−2.7823	0.39	−7.12	0.0000	−2.727	0.47	−5.78	0.0000
Intersection Y2007; Z2	0.2987	1.52	0.20	0.8444	0.149	1.59	0.09	0.9251
Intersection Y2008; Z2	0.1833	1.54	0.12	0.9051	0.028	1.51	0.02	0.9851
Intersection Y2009; Z2	0.3319	1.65	0.20	0.8409	0.166	1.67	0.10	0.9207
Intersection Y2010; Z2	−3.2392	0.22	−14.98	0.0000	−3.173	0.20	−15.66	0.0000
Intersection Y2011; Z2	0.3655	1.68	0.22	0.8281	0.229	1.66	0.14	0.8904
Intersection Y2012; Z2	0.4985	2.00	0.25	0.8032	0.394	2.02	0.19	0.8455
Intersection Y2013; Z2	0.8807	2.33	0.38	0.7059	0.717	2.38	0.30	0.7637
Intersection Y2014; Z2	−2.3560	1.91	−1.24	0.2165	−2.340	1.84	−1.27	0.2027
Intersection Y2015; Z2	−2.5847	2.09	−1.24	0.2166	−2.349	1.90	−1.24	0.2158
Intersection Y2004; Z3	0.3207	0.22	1.49	0.1372	0.350	0.21	1.64	0.1001
Intersection Y2005; Z3	0.3270	1.05	0.31	0.7546	0.308	0.94	0.33	0.7429
Intersection Y2006; Z3	−0.0433	0.77	−0.06	0.9550	−0.068	0.67	−0.10	0.9192
Intersection Y2007; Z3	0.1374	0.53	0.26	0.7953	0.146	0.39	0.37	0.7111
Intersection Y2008; Z3	0.2793	0.22	1.28	0.2005	0.286	0.22	1.29	0.1978
Intersection Y2009; Z3	0.1248	0.67	0.19	0.8518	0.072	0.56	0.13	0.8970
Intersection Y2010; Z3	−0.2902	0.33	−0.87	0.3837	−0.301	0.42	−0.71	0.4753
Intersection Y2011; Z3	−0.1906	1.35	−0.14	0.8879	−0.229	1.26	−0.18	0.8555
Intersection Y2012; Z3	−3.2733	1.28	−2.55	0.0106	−3.155	1.28	−2.46	0.0137
Intersection Y2013; Z3	0.5307	2.00	0.27	0.7902	0.499	1.88	0.27	0.7908
Intersection Y2014; Z3	−3.0684	1.90	−1.62	0.1059	−2.988	1.82	−1.64	0.1013
Intersection Y2015; Z3	−3.6497	2.11	−1.73	0.0840	−3.088	1.90	−1.62	0.1042
Intersection Y2004; Z4	0.1240	0.21	0.58	0.5641	0.157	0.23	0.69	0.4896
Intersection Y2005; Z4	0.6318	0.83	0.76	0.4474	0.592	0.79	0.75	0.4552
Intersection Y2006; Z4	0.2102	0.39	0.54	0.5919	0.182	0.48	0.38	0.7064
Intersection Y2007; Z4	0.3905	0.34	1.15	0.2517	0.367	0.30	1.24	0.2142
Intersection Y2008; Z4	0.2005	0.22	0.92	0.3579	0.218	0.22	0.99	0.3203
Intersection Y2009; Z4	0.6635	0.51	1.31	0.1894	0.624	0.44	1.42	0.1557
Intersection Y2010; Z4	0.0111	0.19	0.06	0.9544	−0.011	0.19	−0.06	0.9525
Intersection Y2011; Z4	0.3617	0.54	0.67	0.5029	0.305	0.66	0.46	0.6456
Intersection Y2012; Z4	0.2347	1.51	0.16	0.8768	0.212	1.48	0.14	0.8856
Intersection Y2013; Z4	0.5154	2.16	0.24	0.8116	0.438	2.13	0.21	0.8371
Intersection Y2014; Z4	−3.0448	1.90	−1.60	0.1090	−2.923	1.82	−1.60	0.1092
Intersection Y2015; Z4	0.2728	2.77	0.10	0.9214	0.315	2.54	0.12	0.9014
Intersection Y2004; Z5	−0.0105	0.51	−0.02	0.9835	0.031	0.48	0.07	0.9480
Intersection Y2005; Z5	0.6297	0.84	0.75	0.4550	0.618	0.81	0.76	0.4446
Intersection Y2006; Z5	0.2070	0.55	0.37	0.7081	0.187	0.50	0.38	0.7059
Intersection Y2007; Z5	0.0729	0.83	0.09	0.9298	0.069	0.66	0.10	0.9172
Intersection Y2008; Z5	0.1937	0.27	0.73	0.4671	0.213	0.27	0.80	0.4242
Intersection Y2009; Z5	−0.1955	1.50	−0.13	0.8963	−0.213	1.54	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2010; Z5	−0.2815	0.75	−0.37	0.7091	−0.277	0.71	−0.39	0.6966
Intersection Y2011; Z5	−0.2054	1.56	−0.13	0.8952	−0.218	1.57	−0.14	0.8899
Intersection Y2012; Z5	−2.8803	1.26	−2.28	0.0227	−2.668	1.28	−2.08	0.0372
Intersection Y2013; Z5	0.4331	2.37	0.18	0.8549	0.410	2.34	0.17	0.8612
Intersection Y2014; Z5	0.2862	2.31	0.12	0.9014	0.284	2.39	0.12	0.9055
Intersection Y2015; Z5	0.6304	2.25	0.28	0.7798	0.631	2.06	0.31	0.7592
Intersection Y2004; Z6	0.1148	1.18	0.10	0.9222	0.147	1.17	0.13	0.8999
Intersection Y2005; Z6	0.3760	1.83	0.21	0.8376	0.364	1.73	0.21	0.8334
Intersection Y2006; Z6	0.2739	1.23	0.22	0.8235	0.278	1.20	0.23	0.8169
Intersection Y2007; Z6	−0.0045	1.65	0.00	0.9978	0.003	1.66	0.00	0.9984
Intersection Y2008; Z6	0.2240	1.28	0.18	0.8607	0.237	1.24	0.19	0.8481
Intersection Y2009; Z6	0.1171	1.70	0.07	0.9449	0.102	1.63	0.06	0.9498
Intersection Y2010; Z6	−0.1259	1.62	−0.08	0.9381	−0.085	1.45	−0.06	0.9536
Intersection Y2011; Z6	0.3649	1.26	0.29	0.7719	0.345	1.37	0.25	0.8011
Intersection Y2012; Z6	−2.9063	1.26	−2.30	0.0213	−2.720	1.28	−2.12	0.0342
Intersection Y2013; Z6	−2.5830	1.79	−1.44	0.1491	−2.419	1.75	−1.38	0.1667
Intersection Y2014; Z6	−2.8144	1.90	−1.48	0.1384	−2.583	1.82	−1.42	0.1569
Intersection Y2015; Z6	0.6249	2.70	0.23	0.8171	0.626	2.57	0.24	0.8076
Intersection Y2004; Z7	0.4348	2.10	0.21	0.8361	0.466	2.03	0.23	0.8184
Intersection Y2005; Z7	0.6428	2.18	0.30	0.7677	0.695	2.14	0.32	0.7458
Intersection Y2006; Z7	0.5102	2.10	0.24	0.8082	0.533	2.06	0.26	0.7963
Intersection Y2007; Z7	0.6356	1.63	0.39	0.6958	0.676	1.77	0.38	0.7029
Intersection Y2008; Z7	−2.9708	1.23	−2.42	0.0157	−2.770	1.17	−2.37	0.0176
Intersection Y2009; Z7	−2.8280	1.32	−2.14	0.0321	−2.664	1.26	−2.11	0.0351
Intersection Y2010; Z7	0.2189	2.12	0.10	0.9177	0.240	1.99	0.12	0.9042
Intersection Y2011; Z7	−2.8463	1.29	−2.20	0.0276	−2.686	1.30	−2.06	0.0395
Intersection Y2012; Z7	0.8250	2.50	0.33	0.7410	0.863	2.38	0.36	0.7164
Intersection Y2013; Z7	−2.2470	2.16	−1.04	0.2983	−2.105	2.03	−1.04	0.2995
Intersection Y2014; Z7	−2.4421	2.26	−1.08	0.2803	−2.258	2.16	−1.04	0.2969
Intersection Y2015; Z7	−2.4361	2.41	−1.01	0.3124	−2.267	2.23	−1.02	0.3091

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