Table 4. Open in new tab Regression of...

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Outcome: New secondary school indicator
A
Births per 100, 15–19 years	0.0012	0.0002	‒0.0004	0.0029
(t-1)	(0.0130)	(0.0130)	(0.0396)	(0.0490)
Observations	43,955	43,649	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
B
Births per 100 at ages 15–19, 5-year growth rate	0.0008	0.0008	‒0.0010	‒0.0018
	(0.0012)	(0.0012)	(0.0018)	(0.0025)
Observations	43,952	43,646	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
Municipalities in sample	All	Pop < 500 k	Pop 10 k–100 k	Pop 10 k–100 k + new
				school 1997–2005

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Outcome: New secondary school indicator
A
Births per 100, 15–19 years	0.0012	0.0002	‒0.0004	0.0029
(t-1)	(0.0130)	(0.0130)	(0.0396)	(0.0490)
Observations	43,955	43,649	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
B
Births per 100 at ages 15–19, 5-year growth rate	0.0008	0.0008	‒0.0010	‒0.0018
	(0.0012)	(0.0012)	(0.0018)	(0.0025)
Observations	43,952	43,646	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
Municipalities in sample	All	Pop < 500 k	Pop 10 k–100 k	Pop 10 k–100 k + new
				school 1997–2005

Table 4.

Regression of Municipal School Introduction on Lagged Municipal Birth Trends

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Outcome: New secondary school indicator
A
Births per 100, 15–19 years	0.0012	0.0002	‒0.0004	0.0029
(t-1)	(0.0130)	(0.0130)	(0.0396)	(0.0490)
Observations	43,955	43,649	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
B
Births per 100 at ages 15–19, 5-year growth rate	0.0008	0.0008	‒0.0010	‒0.0018
	(0.0012)	(0.0012)	(0.0018)	(0.0025)
Observations	43,952	43,646	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
Municipalities in sample	All	Pop < 500 k	Pop 10 k–100 k	Pop 10 k–100 k + new
				school 1997–2005

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Outcome: New secondary school indicator
A
Births per 100, 15–19 years	0.0012	0.0002	‒0.0004	0.0029
(t-1)	(0.0130)	(0.0130)	(0.0396)	(0.0490)
Observations	43,955	43,649	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
B
Births per 100 at ages 15–19, 5-year growth rate	0.0008	0.0008	‒0.0010	‒0.0018
	(0.0012)	(0.0012)	(0.0018)	(0.0025)
Observations	43,952	43,646	22,578	17,963
Municipalities	4,884	4,850	2,509	1,996
Municipalities in sample	All	Pop < 500 k	Pop 10 k–100 k	Pop 10 k–100 k + new
				school 1997–2005

Source: Authors’ analysis based on school data from the 2002 wave of the Brazilian School Census; official population estimates from the Brazilian Census Bureau; births by age from Brazilian Vital Statistics.

Note: This table reports the results of regressing a binary variable, indicating a new school introduced to a municipality in year t, on the number of births in period |$t - 1$| (panel A), and the growth rate in teen births over the previous 4 years (panel B). Coefficients are multiplied by 100 for display purposes. Growth in teen births calculated as the average annual percent change in cohort births between t and t-4. Estimates condition on lagged primary school enrolment, nursery and preschool classrooms, municipality expenditures, municipality and year fixed effects. Municipality-clustered standard errors are reported in parenthesis.

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