Table 8. Open in new tab The effects of...

	% change in imports from the UK	% change in exports to the UK
Netherlands	−6.86	−28.93	−10.01	−30.11	−10.53	−5.05	−25.29	−6.00	−24.68	−11.19
Ireland	−6.39	−27.44	−9.16	−28.35	−9.97	−4.42	−22.34	−5.08	−21.63	−9.57
France	−6.80	−28.63	9.93	−29.73	−10.28	−5.05	−25.30	−5.97	−24.86	−11.32
Germany	−6.85	−28.84	−10.02	−29.98	−10.41	−5.10	−25.52	−6.06	−25.04	−11.41
Spain	−6.79	−28.53	−9.95	−29.60	−10.18	−5.09	−25.47	−6.03	−25.19	−11.50
Belgium-Lux.	−6.88	−29.02	−10.05	−30.21	−10.57	−5.08	−25.40	−6.04	−24.79	−11.25
Italy	−6.81	−28.59	−9.97	−29.67	−10.20	−5.12	−25.62	−6.06	−25.31	−11.58
EU	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18
	% change in imports from EU partners	% change in exports to EU partners
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31
Netherlands	−0.02	−0.86	0.13	1.20	0.41	0.03	−0.47	0.18	1.86	0.78
Ireland	0.47	1.16	1.06	3.64	0.99	0.70	3.53	1.17	6.09	2.67
France	0.04	−0.46	0.21	1.68	0.66	0.04	−0.42	0.21	1.71	0.67
Germany	−0.01	−0.69	0.13	1.42	0.57	−0.01	−0.73	0.13	1.44	0.55
Spain	0.07	−0.22	0.22	1.97	0.81	0.02	−0.56	0.18	1.37	0.51
Belgium-Lux.	−0.03	−0.91	0.10	1.17	0.43	0.00	−0.65	0.14	1.69	0.69
Italy	0.04	−0.36	0.18	1.81	0.77	−0.02	−0.79	0.13	1.17	0.40
EU	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62
	% change in imports from non-EU partners (other than the UK)	% change in exports to non-EU partners (other than the UK)
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	4.32	29.28	15.59	43.28	16.73	2.86	7.73	25.43	34.56	7.42
Netherlands	−0.32	−2.94	−0.42	−2.65	−1.50	0.18	1.27	0.16	4.09	2.09
Ireland	0.18	−0.90	0.49	−0.28	−0.89	0.86	5.34	1.24	8.52	4.00
France	−0.26	−2.56	−0.38	−2.14	−1.28	0.17	1.17	0.09	3.65	1.93
Germany	−0.32	−2.83	−0.46	−2.48	−1.40	0.12	0.88	0.02	3.42	1.82
Spain	−0.25	−2.41	−0.32	−1.93	−1.11	0.15	1.06	0.14	3.44	1.74
Belgium-Lux.	−0.35	−3.07	−0.48	−2.80	−1.56	0.15	1.09	0.09	3.88	2.02
Italy	−0.27	−2.49	−0.39	−2.02	−1.15	0.10	0.74	−0.01	3.03	1.61
EU	−0.27	−2.55	−0.36	−2.12	−1.23	0.16	1.12	0.11	3.62	1.87

% change in imports from the UK

% change in exports to the UK

Netherlands

−6.86

−28.93

−10.01

−30.11

−10.53

−5.05

−25.29

−6.00

−24.68

−11.19

Ireland

−6.39

−27.44

−9.16

−28.35

−9.97

−4.42

−22.34

−5.08

−21.63

−9.57

France

−6.80

−28.63

9.93

−29.73

−10.28

−5.05

−25.30

−5.97

−24.86

−11.32

Germany

−6.85

−28.84

−10.02

−29.98

−10.41

−5.10

−25.52

−6.06

−25.04

−11.41

Spain

−6.79

−28.53

−9.95

−29.60

−10.18

−5.09

−25.47

−6.03

−25.19

−11.50

Belgium-Lux.

−6.88

−29.02

−10.05

−30.21

−10.57

−5.08

−25.40

−6.04

−24.79

−11.25

Italy

−6.81

−28.59

−9.97

−29.67

−10.20

−5.12

−25.62

−6.06

−25.31

−11.58

−6.79

−28.62

−9.91

−29.72

−10.31

−5.01

−25.10

−5.92

−24.62

−11.18

% change in imports from EU partners

% change in exports to EU partners

United Kingdom

−5.01

−25.10

−5.92

−24.62

−11.18

−6.79

−28.62

−9.91

−29.72

−10.31

Netherlands

−0.02

−0.86

0.13

1.20

0.41

0.03

−0.47

0.18

1.86

0.78

Ireland

0.47

1.16

1.06

3.64

0.99

0.70

3.53

1.17

6.09

2.67

France

0.04

−0.46

0.21

1.68

0.66

0.04

−0.42

0.21

1.71

0.67

Germany

−0.01

−0.69

0.13

1.42

0.57

−0.01

−0.73

0.13

1.44

0.55

Spain

0.07

−0.22

0.22

1.97

0.81

0.02

−0.56

0.18

1.37

0.51

Belgium-Lux.

−0.03

−0.91

0.10

1.17

0.43

0.00

−0.65

0.14

1.69

0.69

Italy

0.04

−0.36

0.18

1.81

0.77

−0.02

−0.79

0.13

1.17

0.40

0.02

−0.54

0.17

1.59

0.62

0.02

−0.54

0.17

1.59

0.62

% change in imports from non-EU partners (other than the UK)

% change in exports to non-EU partners (other than the UK)

United Kingdom

4.32

29.28

15.59

43.28

16.73

2.86

7.73

25.43

34.56

7.42

Netherlands

−0.32

−2.94

−0.42

−2.65

−1.50

0.18

1.27

0.16

4.09

2.09

Ireland

0.18

−0.90

0.49

−0.28

−0.89

0.86

5.34

1.24

8.52

4.00

France

−0.26

−2.56

−0.38

−2.14

−1.28

0.17

1.17

0.09

3.65

1.93

Germany

−0.32

−2.83

−0.46

−2.48

−1.40

0.12

0.88

0.02

3.42

1.82

Spain

−0.25

−2.41

−0.32

−1.93

−1.11

0.15

1.06

0.14

3.44

1.74

Belgium-Lux.

−0.35

−3.07

−0.48

−2.80

−1.56

0.15

1.09

0.09

3.88

2.02

Italy

−0.27

−2.49

−0.39

−2.02

−1.15

0.10

0.74

−0.01

3.03

1.61

−0.27

−2.55

−0.36

−2.12

−1.23

0.16

1.12

0.11

3.62

1.87

	% change in imports from the UK	% change in exports to the UK
Netherlands	−6.86	−28.93	−10.01	−30.11	−10.53	−5.05	−25.29	−6.00	−24.68	−11.19
Ireland	−6.39	−27.44	−9.16	−28.35	−9.97	−4.42	−22.34	−5.08	−21.63	−9.57
France	−6.80	−28.63	9.93	−29.73	−10.28	−5.05	−25.30	−5.97	−24.86	−11.32
Germany	−6.85	−28.84	−10.02	−29.98	−10.41	−5.10	−25.52	−6.06	−25.04	−11.41
Spain	−6.79	−28.53	−9.95	−29.60	−10.18	−5.09	−25.47	−6.03	−25.19	−11.50
Belgium-Lux.	−6.88	−29.02	−10.05	−30.21	−10.57	−5.08	−25.40	−6.04	−24.79	−11.25
Italy	−6.81	−28.59	−9.97	−29.67	−10.20	−5.12	−25.62	−6.06	−25.31	−11.58
EU	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18
	% change in imports from EU partners	% change in exports to EU partners
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31
Netherlands	−0.02	−0.86	0.13	1.20	0.41	0.03	−0.47	0.18	1.86	0.78
Ireland	0.47	1.16	1.06	3.64	0.99	0.70	3.53	1.17	6.09	2.67
France	0.04	−0.46	0.21	1.68	0.66	0.04	−0.42	0.21	1.71	0.67
Germany	−0.01	−0.69	0.13	1.42	0.57	−0.01	−0.73	0.13	1.44	0.55
Spain	0.07	−0.22	0.22	1.97	0.81	0.02	−0.56	0.18	1.37	0.51
Belgium-Lux.	−0.03	−0.91	0.10	1.17	0.43	0.00	−0.65	0.14	1.69	0.69
Italy	0.04	−0.36	0.18	1.81	0.77	−0.02	−0.79	0.13	1.17	0.40
EU	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62
	% change in imports from non-EU partners (other than the UK)	% change in exports to non-EU partners (other than the UK)
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	4.32	29.28	15.59	43.28	16.73	2.86	7.73	25.43	34.56	7.42
Netherlands	−0.32	−2.94	−0.42	−2.65	−1.50	0.18	1.27	0.16	4.09	2.09
Ireland	0.18	−0.90	0.49	−0.28	−0.89	0.86	5.34	1.24	8.52	4.00
France	−0.26	−2.56	−0.38	−2.14	−1.28	0.17	1.17	0.09	3.65	1.93
Germany	−0.32	−2.83	−0.46	−2.48	−1.40	0.12	0.88	0.02	3.42	1.82
Spain	−0.25	−2.41	−0.32	−1.93	−1.11	0.15	1.06	0.14	3.44	1.74
Belgium-Lux.	−0.35	−3.07	−0.48	−2.80	−1.56	0.15	1.09	0.09	3.88	2.02
Italy	−0.27	−2.49	−0.39	−2.02	−1.15	0.10	0.74	−0.01	3.03	1.61
EU	−0.27	−2.55	−0.36	−2.12	−1.23	0.16	1.12	0.11	3.62	1.87

Table 8.

Open in new tab

The effects of Brexit scenarios on exports to different markets

	% change in imports from the UK					% change in exports to the UK
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
Netherlands	−6.86	−28.93	−10.01	−30.11	−10.53	−5.05	−25.29	−6.00	−24.68	−11.19
Ireland	−6.39	−27.44	−9.16	−28.35	−9.97	−4.42	−22.34	−5.08	−21.63	−9.57
France	−6.80	−28.63	9.93	−29.73	−10.28	−5.05	−25.30	−5.97	−24.86	−11.32
Germany	−6.85	−28.84	−10.02	−29.98	−10.41	−5.10	−25.52	−6.06	−25.04	−11.41
Spain	−6.79	−28.53	−9.95	−29.60	−10.18	−5.09	−25.47	−6.03	−25.19	−11.50
Belgium-Lux.	−6.88	−29.02	−10.05	−30.21	−10.57	−5.08	−25.40	−6.04	−24.79	−11.25
Italy	−6.81	−28.59	−9.97	−29.67	−10.20	−5.12	−25.62	−6.06	−25.31	−11.58
EU	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18
	% change in imports from EU partners					% change in exports to EU partners
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31
Netherlands	−0.02	−0.86	0.13	1.20	0.41	0.03	−0.47	0.18	1.86	0.78
Ireland	0.47	1.16	1.06	3.64	0.99	0.70	3.53	1.17	6.09	2.67
France	0.04	−0.46	0.21	1.68	0.66	0.04	−0.42	0.21	1.71	0.67
Germany	−0.01	−0.69	0.13	1.42	0.57	−0.01	−0.73	0.13	1.44	0.55
Spain	0.07	−0.22	0.22	1.97	0.81	0.02	−0.56	0.18	1.37	0.51
Belgium-Lux.	−0.03	−0.91	0.10	1.17	0.43	0.00	−0.65	0.14	1.69	0.69
Italy	0.04	−0.36	0.18	1.81	0.77	−0.02	−0.79	0.13	1.17	0.40
EU	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62
	% change in imports from non-EU partners (other than the UK)					% change in exports to non-EU partners (other than the UK)
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	4.32	29.28	15.59	43.28	16.73	2.86	7.73	25.43	34.56	7.42
Netherlands	−0.32	−2.94	−0.42	−2.65	−1.50	0.18	1.27	0.16	4.09	2.09
Ireland	0.18	−0.90	0.49	−0.28	−0.89	0.86	5.34	1.24	8.52	4.00
France	−0.26	−2.56	−0.38	−2.14	−1.28	0.17	1.17	0.09	3.65	1.93
Germany	−0.32	−2.83	−0.46	−2.48	−1.40	0.12	0.88	0.02	3.42	1.82
Spain	−0.25	−2.41	−0.32	−1.93	−1.11	0.15	1.06	0.14	3.44	1.74
Belgium-Lux.	−0.35	−3.07	−0.48	−2.80	−1.56	0.15	1.09	0.09	3.88	2.02
Italy	−0.27	−2.49	−0.39	−2.02	−1.15	0.10	0.74	−0.01	3.03	1.61
EU	−0.27	−2.55	−0.36	−2.12	−1.23	0.16	1.12	0.11	3.62	1.87

	% change in imports from the UK					% change in exports to the UK
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
Netherlands	−6.86	−28.93	−10.01	−30.11	−10.53	−5.05	−25.29	−6.00	−24.68	−11.19
Ireland	−6.39	−27.44	−9.16	−28.35	−9.97	−4.42	−22.34	−5.08	−21.63	−9.57
France	−6.80	−28.63	9.93	−29.73	−10.28	−5.05	−25.30	−5.97	−24.86	−11.32
Germany	−6.85	−28.84	−10.02	−29.98	−10.41	−5.10	−25.52	−6.06	−25.04	−11.41
Spain	−6.79	−28.53	−9.95	−29.60	−10.18	−5.09	−25.47	−6.03	−25.19	−11.50
Belgium-Lux.	−6.88	−29.02	−10.05	−30.21	−10.57	−5.08	−25.40	−6.04	−24.79	−11.25
Italy	−6.81	−28.59	−9.97	−29.67	−10.20	−5.12	−25.62	−6.06	−25.31	−11.58
EU	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18
	% change in imports from EU partners					% change in exports to EU partners
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	−5.01	−25.10	−5.92	−24.62	−11.18	−6.79	−28.62	−9.91	−29.72	−10.31
Netherlands	−0.02	−0.86	0.13	1.20	0.41	0.03	−0.47	0.18	1.86	0.78
Ireland	0.47	1.16	1.06	3.64	0.99	0.70	3.53	1.17	6.09	2.67
France	0.04	−0.46	0.21	1.68	0.66	0.04	−0.42	0.21	1.71	0.67
Germany	−0.01	−0.69	0.13	1.42	0.57	−0.01	−0.73	0.13	1.44	0.55
Spain	0.07	−0.22	0.22	1.97	0.81	0.02	−0.56	0.18	1.37	0.51
Belgium-Lux.	−0.03	−0.91	0.10	1.17	0.43	0.00	−0.65	0.14	1.69	0.69
Italy	0.04	−0.36	0.18	1.81	0.77	−0.02	−0.79	0.13	1.17	0.40
EU	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62	0.02	−0.54	0.17	1.59	0.62
	% change in imports from non-EU partners (other than the UK)					% change in exports to non-EU partners (other than the UK)
	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
United Kingdom	4.32	29.28	15.59	43.28	16.73	2.86	7.73	25.43	34.56	7.42
Netherlands	−0.32	−2.94	−0.42	−2.65	−1.50	0.18	1.27	0.16	4.09	2.09
Ireland	0.18	−0.90	0.49	−0.28	−0.89	0.86	5.34	1.24	8.52	4.00
France	−0.26	−2.56	−0.38	−2.14	−1.28	0.17	1.17	0.09	3.65	1.93
Germany	−0.32	−2.83	−0.46	−2.48	−1.40	0.12	0.88	0.02	3.42	1.82
Spain	−0.25	−2.41	−0.32	−1.93	−1.11	0.15	1.06	0.14	3.44	1.74
Belgium-Lux.	−0.35	−3.07	−0.48	−2.80	−1.56	0.15	1.09	0.09	3.88	2.02
Italy	−0.27	−2.49	−0.39	−2.02	−1.15	0.10	0.74	−0.01	3.03	1.61
EU	−0.27	−2.55	−0.36	−2.12	−1.23	0.16	1.12	0.11	3.62	1.87

Source: Computations by authors.

Notes: Five post-Brexit trade policy scenarios considered: (S1) EU–UK FTA and the UK replicates EU’s PTAs with third countries; (S2) no EU–UK trade deal and the UK replicates the EU’s PTAs with third countries; (S3) EU–UK FTA and the UK signs PTAs with six main third trade partners; (S4) no EU–UK trade deal and the UK signs PTAs with six main third trade partners; (S5) UK’s actual trade policy. % change in imports and exports are in value terms.

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