Effects of Brexit on EU exports to different markets and on EU prices (% change with respect to baseline)
| Product group . | EU overall exports to all destinations . | EU exports to the UK . | EU exports to EU partners . | EU exports to third partners except UK . | EU IMR (average price of products sold on the EU market) . | EU supply (factory-gate) price . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario S1: Quasi status quo | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.42 | −7.93 | 0.61 | 1.63 | −0.16 | −0.40 |
| Dairy | −0.03 | −1.98 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.16 | −5.29 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.02 | −0.20 |
| Vegetables | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fruit | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cereals & cereal products | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.01 | −0.34 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wines | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tobacco | 0.21 | 6.36 | −0.02 | 0.07 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| Other products | 0.05 | 1.67 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | 0.07 |
| Scenario S2: Fortress UK | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −5.93 | −34.15 | −3.08 | 9.41 | −2.73 | −2.55 |
| Dairy | −1.01 | −15.04 | 0.19 | 1.11 | −0.23 | −0.45 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.62 | −19.27 | −0.14 | 0.29 | −0.15 | −0.12 |
| Vegetables | −1.61 | −20.84 | 0.29 | 7.33 | −1.14 | −1.42 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −32.28 | 1.75 | 5.35 | −0.45 | −0.90 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.74 | −16.91 | 1.01 | 1.52 | −0.11 | −0.67 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.61 | −10.14 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.10 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.76 | −29.10 | 1.59 | 2.96 | −0.16 | −0.74 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.34 | −9.34 | 1.08 | 0.70 | 0.24 | −0.23 |
| Wines | 0.08 | −2.87 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 0.14 | −0.26 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | −0.45 | −16.81 | 4.87 | −1.91 | 1.13 | 0.39 |
| Tobacco | 0.02 | −15.31 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.13 | −0.18 |
| Other products | −0.32 | −8.98 | 0.27 | 1.21 | −0.14 | −0.53 |
| Scenario S3: Liberalised trade with EU and main third partners | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.93 | −12.86 | 0.36 | 4.98 | −1.05 | −1.48 |
| Dairy | 0.10 | −2.00 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.12 | −4.01 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.03 | −0.16 |
| Vegetables | 0.19 | 2.37 | −0.01 | −0.89 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Fruit | −0.01 | 0.64 | −0.13 | 0.18 | −0.10 | −0.09 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.03 | 0.23 | 0.09 | −0.60 | 0.02 | −0.01 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.12 | −5.04 | 0.02 | 0.30 | −0.07 | −0.17 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.24 | −0.20 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | −0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Wines | 0.25 | 1.13 | 0.25 | −0.07 | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.46 | 14.59 | 3.83 | −5.63 | 0.79 | 0.07 |
| Tobacco | 0.25 | 5.96 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Other products | 0.06 | 1.32 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | 0.01 |
| Scenario S4: Liberalised trade with main third partners only | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −8.84 | −43.32 | −5.78 | 13.03 | −4.42 | −3.87 |
| Dairy | −1.02 | −16.23 | 0.19 | 1.57 | −0.25 | −0.48 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.51 | −18.12 | −0.10 | 0.20 | −0.12 | −0.11 |
| Vegetables | −1.38 | −17.81 | 0.19 | 6.48 | −1.12 | −1.37 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −31.59 | 1.59 | 5.68 | −0.58 | −1.02 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.80 | −16.72 | 1.04 | 1.03 | −0.15 | −0.74 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.30 | −14.95 | 0.19 | 0.89 | −0.11 | −0.45 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.51 | −28.00 | 1.85 | 2.79 | 0.00 | −0.62 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.32 | −9.36 | 1.13 | 0.69 | 0.28 | −0.19 |
| Wines | 0.74 | −0.91 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.11 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | −2.46 | 8.23 | −7.08 | 1.73 | 0.35 |
| Tobacco | 0.06 | −15.79 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.16 | −0.17 |
| Other products | −0.31 | −9.37 | 0.30 | 1.34 | −0.16 | −0.60 |
| Scenario S5: UK’s actual trade policy | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −4.14 | −16.91 | −2.87 | 3.13 | −1.77 | −1.45 |
| Dairy | −0.11 | −2.99 | 0.12 | 0.39 | −0.05 | −0.16 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.21 | −5.91 | 0.20 | 0.63 | −0.06 | −0.31 |
| Vegetables | −0.50 | −5.37 | −0.11 | 2.28 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Fruit | −0.21 | −4.57 | 0.16 | 0.97 | −0.11 | −0.16 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.21 | −2.03 | −0.20 | 0.70 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.03 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.32 | −8.18 | 0.14 | 1.35 | −0.25 | −0.38 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.06 | −0.72 | −0.05 | 0.23 | −0.07 | −0.09 |
| Wines | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | −0.04 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 1.30 | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Tobacco | 0.63 | 12.31 | 0.31 | −0.08 | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| Other products | −0.15 | −2.04 | −0.22 | 0.73 | −0.32 | −0.39 |
| Product group . | EU overall exports to all destinations . | EU exports to the UK . | EU exports to EU partners . | EU exports to third partners except UK . | EU IMR (average price of products sold on the EU market) . | EU supply (factory-gate) price . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario S1: Quasi status quo | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.42 | −7.93 | 0.61 | 1.63 | −0.16 | −0.40 |
| Dairy | −0.03 | −1.98 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.16 | −5.29 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.02 | −0.20 |
| Vegetables | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fruit | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cereals & cereal products | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.01 | −0.34 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wines | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tobacco | 0.21 | 6.36 | −0.02 | 0.07 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| Other products | 0.05 | 1.67 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | 0.07 |
| Scenario S2: Fortress UK | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −5.93 | −34.15 | −3.08 | 9.41 | −2.73 | −2.55 |
| Dairy | −1.01 | −15.04 | 0.19 | 1.11 | −0.23 | −0.45 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.62 | −19.27 | −0.14 | 0.29 | −0.15 | −0.12 |
| Vegetables | −1.61 | −20.84 | 0.29 | 7.33 | −1.14 | −1.42 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −32.28 | 1.75 | 5.35 | −0.45 | −0.90 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.74 | −16.91 | 1.01 | 1.52 | −0.11 | −0.67 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.61 | −10.14 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.10 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.76 | −29.10 | 1.59 | 2.96 | −0.16 | −0.74 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.34 | −9.34 | 1.08 | 0.70 | 0.24 | −0.23 |
| Wines | 0.08 | −2.87 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 0.14 | −0.26 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | −0.45 | −16.81 | 4.87 | −1.91 | 1.13 | 0.39 |
| Tobacco | 0.02 | −15.31 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.13 | −0.18 |
| Other products | −0.32 | −8.98 | 0.27 | 1.21 | −0.14 | −0.53 |
| Scenario S3: Liberalised trade with EU and main third partners | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.93 | −12.86 | 0.36 | 4.98 | −1.05 | −1.48 |
| Dairy | 0.10 | −2.00 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.12 | −4.01 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.03 | −0.16 |
| Vegetables | 0.19 | 2.37 | −0.01 | −0.89 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Fruit | −0.01 | 0.64 | −0.13 | 0.18 | −0.10 | −0.09 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.03 | 0.23 | 0.09 | −0.60 | 0.02 | −0.01 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.12 | −5.04 | 0.02 | 0.30 | −0.07 | −0.17 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.24 | −0.20 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | −0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Wines | 0.25 | 1.13 | 0.25 | −0.07 | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.46 | 14.59 | 3.83 | −5.63 | 0.79 | 0.07 |
| Tobacco | 0.25 | 5.96 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Other products | 0.06 | 1.32 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | 0.01 |
| Scenario S4: Liberalised trade with main third partners only | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −8.84 | −43.32 | −5.78 | 13.03 | −4.42 | −3.87 |
| Dairy | −1.02 | −16.23 | 0.19 | 1.57 | −0.25 | −0.48 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.51 | −18.12 | −0.10 | 0.20 | −0.12 | −0.11 |
| Vegetables | −1.38 | −17.81 | 0.19 | 6.48 | −1.12 | −1.37 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −31.59 | 1.59 | 5.68 | −0.58 | −1.02 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.80 | −16.72 | 1.04 | 1.03 | −0.15 | −0.74 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.30 | −14.95 | 0.19 | 0.89 | −0.11 | −0.45 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.51 | −28.00 | 1.85 | 2.79 | 0.00 | −0.62 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.32 | −9.36 | 1.13 | 0.69 | 0.28 | −0.19 |
| Wines | 0.74 | −0.91 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.11 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | −2.46 | 8.23 | −7.08 | 1.73 | 0.35 |
| Tobacco | 0.06 | −15.79 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.16 | −0.17 |
| Other products | −0.31 | −9.37 | 0.30 | 1.34 | −0.16 | −0.60 |
| Scenario S5: UK’s actual trade policy | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −4.14 | −16.91 | −2.87 | 3.13 | −1.77 | −1.45 |
| Dairy | −0.11 | −2.99 | 0.12 | 0.39 | −0.05 | −0.16 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.21 | −5.91 | 0.20 | 0.63 | −0.06 | −0.31 |
| Vegetables | −0.50 | −5.37 | −0.11 | 2.28 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Fruit | −0.21 | −4.57 | 0.16 | 0.97 | −0.11 | −0.16 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.21 | −2.03 | −0.20 | 0.70 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.03 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.32 | −8.18 | 0.14 | 1.35 | −0.25 | −0.38 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.06 | −0.72 | −0.05 | 0.23 | −0.07 | −0.09 |
| Wines | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | −0.04 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 1.30 | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Tobacco | 0.63 | 12.31 | 0.31 | −0.08 | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| Other products | −0.15 | −2.04 | −0.22 | 0.73 | −0.32 | −0.39 |
Effects of Brexit on EU exports to different markets and on EU prices (% change with respect to baseline)
| Product group . | EU overall exports to all destinations . | EU exports to the UK . | EU exports to EU partners . | EU exports to third partners except UK . | EU IMR (average price of products sold on the EU market) . | EU supply (factory-gate) price . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario S1: Quasi status quo | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.42 | −7.93 | 0.61 | 1.63 | −0.16 | −0.40 |
| Dairy | −0.03 | −1.98 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.16 | −5.29 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.02 | −0.20 |
| Vegetables | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fruit | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cereals & cereal products | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.01 | −0.34 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wines | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tobacco | 0.21 | 6.36 | −0.02 | 0.07 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| Other products | 0.05 | 1.67 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | 0.07 |
| Scenario S2: Fortress UK | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −5.93 | −34.15 | −3.08 | 9.41 | −2.73 | −2.55 |
| Dairy | −1.01 | −15.04 | 0.19 | 1.11 | −0.23 | −0.45 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.62 | −19.27 | −0.14 | 0.29 | −0.15 | −0.12 |
| Vegetables | −1.61 | −20.84 | 0.29 | 7.33 | −1.14 | −1.42 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −32.28 | 1.75 | 5.35 | −0.45 | −0.90 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.74 | −16.91 | 1.01 | 1.52 | −0.11 | −0.67 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.61 | −10.14 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.10 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.76 | −29.10 | 1.59 | 2.96 | −0.16 | −0.74 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.34 | −9.34 | 1.08 | 0.70 | 0.24 | −0.23 |
| Wines | 0.08 | −2.87 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 0.14 | −0.26 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | −0.45 | −16.81 | 4.87 | −1.91 | 1.13 | 0.39 |
| Tobacco | 0.02 | −15.31 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.13 | −0.18 |
| Other products | −0.32 | −8.98 | 0.27 | 1.21 | −0.14 | −0.53 |
| Scenario S3: Liberalised trade with EU and main third partners | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.93 | −12.86 | 0.36 | 4.98 | −1.05 | −1.48 |
| Dairy | 0.10 | −2.00 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.12 | −4.01 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.03 | −0.16 |
| Vegetables | 0.19 | 2.37 | −0.01 | −0.89 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Fruit | −0.01 | 0.64 | −0.13 | 0.18 | −0.10 | −0.09 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.03 | 0.23 | 0.09 | −0.60 | 0.02 | −0.01 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.12 | −5.04 | 0.02 | 0.30 | −0.07 | −0.17 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.24 | −0.20 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | −0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Wines | 0.25 | 1.13 | 0.25 | −0.07 | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.46 | 14.59 | 3.83 | −5.63 | 0.79 | 0.07 |
| Tobacco | 0.25 | 5.96 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Other products | 0.06 | 1.32 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | 0.01 |
| Scenario S4: Liberalised trade with main third partners only | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −8.84 | −43.32 | −5.78 | 13.03 | −4.42 | −3.87 |
| Dairy | −1.02 | −16.23 | 0.19 | 1.57 | −0.25 | −0.48 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.51 | −18.12 | −0.10 | 0.20 | −0.12 | −0.11 |
| Vegetables | −1.38 | −17.81 | 0.19 | 6.48 | −1.12 | −1.37 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −31.59 | 1.59 | 5.68 | −0.58 | −1.02 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.80 | −16.72 | 1.04 | 1.03 | −0.15 | −0.74 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.30 | −14.95 | 0.19 | 0.89 | −0.11 | −0.45 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.51 | −28.00 | 1.85 | 2.79 | 0.00 | −0.62 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.32 | −9.36 | 1.13 | 0.69 | 0.28 | −0.19 |
| Wines | 0.74 | −0.91 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.11 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | −2.46 | 8.23 | −7.08 | 1.73 | 0.35 |
| Tobacco | 0.06 | −15.79 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.16 | −0.17 |
| Other products | −0.31 | −9.37 | 0.30 | 1.34 | −0.16 | −0.60 |
| Scenario S5: UK’s actual trade policy | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −4.14 | −16.91 | −2.87 | 3.13 | −1.77 | −1.45 |
| Dairy | −0.11 | −2.99 | 0.12 | 0.39 | −0.05 | −0.16 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.21 | −5.91 | 0.20 | 0.63 | −0.06 | −0.31 |
| Vegetables | −0.50 | −5.37 | −0.11 | 2.28 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Fruit | −0.21 | −4.57 | 0.16 | 0.97 | −0.11 | −0.16 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.21 | −2.03 | −0.20 | 0.70 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.03 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.32 | −8.18 | 0.14 | 1.35 | −0.25 | −0.38 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.06 | −0.72 | −0.05 | 0.23 | −0.07 | −0.09 |
| Wines | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | −0.04 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 1.30 | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Tobacco | 0.63 | 12.31 | 0.31 | −0.08 | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| Other products | −0.15 | −2.04 | −0.22 | 0.73 | −0.32 | −0.39 |
| Product group . | EU overall exports to all destinations . | EU exports to the UK . | EU exports to EU partners . | EU exports to third partners except UK . | EU IMR (average price of products sold on the EU market) . | EU supply (factory-gate) price . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario S1: Quasi status quo | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.42 | −7.93 | 0.61 | 1.63 | −0.16 | −0.40 |
| Dairy | −0.03 | −1.98 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.16 | −5.29 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.02 | −0.20 |
| Vegetables | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fruit | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cereals & cereal products | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.01 | −0.34 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wines | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tobacco | 0.21 | 6.36 | −0.02 | 0.07 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| Other products | 0.05 | 1.67 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | 0.07 |
| Scenario S2: Fortress UK | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −5.93 | −34.15 | −3.08 | 9.41 | −2.73 | −2.55 |
| Dairy | −1.01 | −15.04 | 0.19 | 1.11 | −0.23 | −0.45 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.62 | −19.27 | −0.14 | 0.29 | −0.15 | −0.12 |
| Vegetables | −1.61 | −20.84 | 0.29 | 7.33 | −1.14 | −1.42 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −32.28 | 1.75 | 5.35 | −0.45 | −0.90 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.74 | −16.91 | 1.01 | 1.52 | −0.11 | −0.67 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.61 | −10.14 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.10 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.76 | −29.10 | 1.59 | 2.96 | −0.16 | −0.74 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.34 | −9.34 | 1.08 | 0.70 | 0.24 | −0.23 |
| Wines | 0.08 | −2.87 | 0.35 | 0.92 | 0.14 | −0.26 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | −0.45 | −16.81 | 4.87 | −1.91 | 1.13 | 0.39 |
| Tobacco | 0.02 | −15.31 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.13 | −0.18 |
| Other products | −0.32 | −8.98 | 0.27 | 1.21 | −0.14 | −0.53 |
| Scenario S3: Liberalised trade with EU and main third partners | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −0.93 | −12.86 | 0.36 | 4.98 | −1.05 | −1.48 |
| Dairy | 0.10 | −2.00 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.12 | −4.01 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.03 | −0.16 |
| Vegetables | 0.19 | 2.37 | −0.01 | −0.89 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Fruit | −0.01 | 0.64 | −0.13 | 0.18 | −0.10 | −0.09 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.03 | 0.23 | 0.09 | −0.60 | 0.02 | −0.01 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.12 | −5.04 | 0.02 | 0.30 | −0.07 | −0.17 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.24 | −0.20 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | −0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Wines | 0.25 | 1.13 | 0.25 | −0.07 | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.46 | 14.59 | 3.83 | −5.63 | 0.79 | 0.07 |
| Tobacco | 0.25 | 5.96 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Other products | 0.06 | 1.32 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | 0.01 |
| Scenario S4: Liberalised trade with main third partners only | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −8.84 | −43.32 | −5.78 | 13.03 | −4.42 | −3.87 |
| Dairy | −1.02 | −16.23 | 0.19 | 1.57 | −0.25 | −0.48 |
| Fish & sea products | −1.51 | −18.12 | −0.10 | 0.20 | −0.12 | −0.11 |
| Vegetables | −1.38 | −17.81 | 0.19 | 6.48 | −1.12 | −1.37 |
| Fruit | −1.19 | −31.59 | 1.59 | 5.68 | −0.58 | −1.02 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.80 | −16.72 | 1.04 | 1.03 | −0.15 | −0.74 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.30 | −14.95 | 0.19 | 0.89 | −0.11 | −0.45 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.51 | −28.00 | 1.85 | 2.79 | 0.00 | −0.62 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.32 | −9.36 | 1.13 | 0.69 | 0.28 | −0.19 |
| Wines | 0.74 | −0.91 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.11 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.00 | −2.46 | 8.23 | −7.08 | 1.73 | 0.35 |
| Tobacco | 0.06 | −15.79 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.16 | −0.17 |
| Other products | −0.31 | −9.37 | 0.30 | 1.34 | −0.16 | −0.60 |
| Scenario S5: UK’s actual trade policy | ||||||
| Meat & meat products | −4.14 | −16.91 | −2.87 | 3.13 | −1.77 | −1.45 |
| Dairy | −0.11 | −2.99 | 0.12 | 0.39 | −0.05 | −0.16 |
| Fish & sea products | −0.21 | −5.91 | 0.20 | 0.63 | −0.06 | −0.31 |
| Vegetables | −0.50 | −5.37 | −0.11 | 2.28 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Fruit | −0.21 | −4.57 | 0.16 | 0.97 | −0.11 | −0.16 |
| Cereals & cereal products | −0.21 | −2.03 | −0.20 | 0.70 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Oilseeds & vegetable oils | −0.03 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 |
| Coffee, spices, cocoa, sugar | −0.32 | −8.18 | 0.14 | 1.35 | −0.25 | −0.38 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | −0.06 | −0.72 | −0.05 | 0.23 | −0.07 | −0.09 |
| Wines | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | −0.04 |
| Other alcoholic beverages | 0.02 | 1.30 | 0.04 | −0.26 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Tobacco | 0.63 | 12.31 | 0.31 | −0.08 | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| Other products | −0.15 | −2.04 | −0.22 | 0.73 | −0.32 | −0.39 |
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