| . | Horizon . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution for inflation . | 1-year . | 3-year . | 5-year . | 30-year . |
| Baseline Counterfactuals | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 1. Permanently higher | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 2. Right tail only | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.9% |
| 3. Higher and more variable | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| 4. Higher for sure | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 5. Partially anticipated | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 6. Temporary increase | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| 7. Gradual increase | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| . | Horizon . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution for inflation . | 1-year . | 3-year . | 5-year . | 30-year . |
| Baseline Counterfactuals | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 1. Permanently higher | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 2. Right tail only | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.9% |
| 3. Higher and more variable | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| 4. Higher for sure | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 5. Partially anticipated | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 6. Temporary increase | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| 7. Gradual increase | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Each cell reports 1/E(n/|$\pi_{0,j}$|), that is, the harmonic mean of inflation until horizon |$j$|.
| . | Horizon . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution for inflation . | 1-year . | 3-year . | 5-year . | 30-year . |
| Baseline Counterfactuals | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 1. Permanently higher | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 2. Right tail only | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.9% |
| 3. Higher and more variable | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| 4. Higher for sure | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 5. Partially anticipated | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 6. Temporary increase | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| 7. Gradual increase | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| . | Horizon . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution for inflation . | 1-year . | 3-year . | 5-year . | 30-year . |
| Baseline Counterfactuals | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 1. Permanently higher | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 2. Right tail only | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.9% |
| 3. Higher and more variable | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| 4. Higher for sure | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 5. Partially anticipated | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 6. Temporary increase | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| 7. Gradual increase | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Each cell reports 1/E(n/|$\pi_{0,j}$|), that is, the harmonic mean of inflation until horizon |$j$|.
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