Table 3

Risk of thoracic aortic aneurysms in the GCA cohort compared with the reference cohort stratified by baseline characteristics

10 years following index
15 years following index
NumberCrude
Adjusteda
Crude
Adjusteda
CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)
Overall99081.1 (0.9, 1.4)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)6.52 (4.90, 8.67)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)7.39 (5.23, 10.5)1.9 (1.5, 2.2)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)7.53 (5.81, 9.76)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)11.2 (7.41, 16.9)
Sex
 Male33070.9 (0.5, 1.4)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.73 (2.23, 6.26)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.86 (2.26, 6.60)1.3 (0.7, 1.8)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)4.06 (2.49, 6.62)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)5.18 (2.56, 10.5)
 Female66011.2 (0.9, 1.5)1.1 (0.8, 1.4)8.87 (6.23, 12.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)9.77 (6.69, 14.3)2.1 (1.6, 2.6)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)9.83 (7.17, 13.5)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)13.2 (8.53, 20.5)
Age
 <70 years34481.7 (1.2, 2.3)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)11.1 (7.11, 17.4)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)12.6 (7.16, 22.3)3.4 (2.5, 4.3)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)14.7 (9.86, 21.8)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)17.7 (10.6, 29.7)
 ≥70 years64600.8 (0.6, 1.1)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.43 (3.01, 6.53)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.68 (2.99, 7.33)1.0 (0.7, 1.3)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.08 (2.83, 5.88)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.54 (2.89, 7.13)
CCI
 065631.2 (0.9, 1.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.04 (5.00, 9.12)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.60 (5.06, 11.4)2.3 (1.8, 2.8)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)8.55 (6.30, 11.6)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)12.0 (7.67, 18.8)
 116131.2 (0.6, 1.9)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)7.30 (3.64, 14.6)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)8.45 (3.98, 17.9)1.4 (0.7, 2.1)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)6.65 (3.42, 12.9)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)8.43 (3.92, 18.1)
 ≥217320.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)3.86 (1.69, 8.80)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)4.45 (1.50, 13.2)0.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.36 (1.52, 7.40)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.85 (1.43, 10.3)
TAB
 Positive34061.8 (1.3, 2.3)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)12.9 (8.38, 19.8)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)13.1 (8.43, 20.2)2.9 (2.1, 3.6)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.76, 21.1)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.64, 21.6)
 Negative33680.6 (0.3, 0.9)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)3.85 (2.14, 6.91)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)4.07 (2.22, 7.48)1.1 (0.6, 1.6)0.9 (0.4, 1.3)4.67 (2.77, 7.88)0.9 (0.4, 1.4)5.25 (2.96, 9.32)
 None31340.9 (0.4, 1.3)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.57 (1.99, 6.39)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.89 (2.04, 7.43)1.3 (0.7, 2.0)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.00 (2.31, 6.92)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.43 (2.42, 8.11)
Combinations
 Female, <70 years22282.0 (1.3, 2.7)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.1 (10.1, 32.4)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.0 (9.87, 32.7)4.1 (2.9, 5.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.5 (12.3, 34.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.3 (12.0, 34.5)
 Female, positive TAB23301.8 (1.2, 2.4)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.6 (7.58, 21.0)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.9 (7.64, 21.8)3.2 (2.2, 4.1)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)14.9 (9.51, 23.4)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)15.0 (9.35, 24.0)
 <70 years, positive TAB10183.0 (1.7, 4.2)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)30.1 (13.5, 67.3)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)29.6 (12.9, 67.9)5.3 (3.5, 7.2)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)37.8 (18.2, 78.5)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)38.6 (17.9, 83.3)
 Female, <70 years, positive TAB6673.2 (1.7, 4.8)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)34.9 (12.9, 94.6)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)41.0 (12.2, 138)6.2 (3.8, 8.7)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.7 (16.7, 94.6)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.9 (16.2, 98.3)
10 years following index
15 years following index
NumberCrude
Adjusteda
Crude
Adjusteda
CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)
Overall99081.1 (0.9, 1.4)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)6.52 (4.90, 8.67)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)7.39 (5.23, 10.5)1.9 (1.5, 2.2)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)7.53 (5.81, 9.76)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)11.2 (7.41, 16.9)
Sex
 Male33070.9 (0.5, 1.4)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.73 (2.23, 6.26)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.86 (2.26, 6.60)1.3 (0.7, 1.8)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)4.06 (2.49, 6.62)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)5.18 (2.56, 10.5)
 Female66011.2 (0.9, 1.5)1.1 (0.8, 1.4)8.87 (6.23, 12.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)9.77 (6.69, 14.3)2.1 (1.6, 2.6)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)9.83 (7.17, 13.5)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)13.2 (8.53, 20.5)
Age
 <70 years34481.7 (1.2, 2.3)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)11.1 (7.11, 17.4)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)12.6 (7.16, 22.3)3.4 (2.5, 4.3)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)14.7 (9.86, 21.8)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)17.7 (10.6, 29.7)
 ≥70 years64600.8 (0.6, 1.1)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.43 (3.01, 6.53)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.68 (2.99, 7.33)1.0 (0.7, 1.3)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.08 (2.83, 5.88)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.54 (2.89, 7.13)
CCI
 065631.2 (0.9, 1.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.04 (5.00, 9.12)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.60 (5.06, 11.4)2.3 (1.8, 2.8)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)8.55 (6.30, 11.6)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)12.0 (7.67, 18.8)
 116131.2 (0.6, 1.9)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)7.30 (3.64, 14.6)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)8.45 (3.98, 17.9)1.4 (0.7, 2.1)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)6.65 (3.42, 12.9)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)8.43 (3.92, 18.1)
 ≥217320.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)3.86 (1.69, 8.80)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)4.45 (1.50, 13.2)0.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.36 (1.52, 7.40)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.85 (1.43, 10.3)
TAB
 Positive34061.8 (1.3, 2.3)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)12.9 (8.38, 19.8)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)13.1 (8.43, 20.2)2.9 (2.1, 3.6)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.76, 21.1)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.64, 21.6)
 Negative33680.6 (0.3, 0.9)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)3.85 (2.14, 6.91)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)4.07 (2.22, 7.48)1.1 (0.6, 1.6)0.9 (0.4, 1.3)4.67 (2.77, 7.88)0.9 (0.4, 1.4)5.25 (2.96, 9.32)
 None31340.9 (0.4, 1.3)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.57 (1.99, 6.39)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.89 (2.04, 7.43)1.3 (0.7, 2.0)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.00 (2.31, 6.92)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.43 (2.42, 8.11)
Combinations
 Female, <70 years22282.0 (1.3, 2.7)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.1 (10.1, 32.4)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.0 (9.87, 32.7)4.1 (2.9, 5.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.5 (12.3, 34.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.3 (12.0, 34.5)
 Female, positive TAB23301.8 (1.2, 2.4)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.6 (7.58, 21.0)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.9 (7.64, 21.8)3.2 (2.2, 4.1)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)14.9 (9.51, 23.4)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)15.0 (9.35, 24.0)
 <70 years, positive TAB10183.0 (1.7, 4.2)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)30.1 (13.5, 67.3)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)29.6 (12.9, 67.9)5.3 (3.5, 7.2)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)37.8 (18.2, 78.5)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)38.6 (17.9, 83.3)
 Female, <70 years, positive TAB6673.2 (1.7, 4.8)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)34.9 (12.9, 94.6)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)41.0 (12.2, 138)6.2 (3.8, 8.7)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.7 (16.7, 94.6)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.9 (16.2, 98.3)

Values are expressed as cumulative incidence proportions (CIP), risk differences (RDs) and as relative risks (RRs), 10 and 15 years after start of follow-up with 95% CIs. Index date was defined as the date of redeeming the third prednisolone prescription. Values were calculated among 9908 patients with GCA compared with 98 204 individuals from the general population. aAdjusted for Charlson Comorbidity Index. In this stratification matching was broken. CCI: Charlson Comorbidity Index; TAB: temporal artery biopsy.

Table 3

Risk of thoracic aortic aneurysms in the GCA cohort compared with the reference cohort stratified by baseline characteristics

10 years following index
15 years following index
NumberCrude
Adjusteda
Crude
Adjusteda
CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)
Overall99081.1 (0.9, 1.4)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)6.52 (4.90, 8.67)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)7.39 (5.23, 10.5)1.9 (1.5, 2.2)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)7.53 (5.81, 9.76)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)11.2 (7.41, 16.9)
Sex
 Male33070.9 (0.5, 1.4)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.73 (2.23, 6.26)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.86 (2.26, 6.60)1.3 (0.7, 1.8)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)4.06 (2.49, 6.62)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)5.18 (2.56, 10.5)
 Female66011.2 (0.9, 1.5)1.1 (0.8, 1.4)8.87 (6.23, 12.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)9.77 (6.69, 14.3)2.1 (1.6, 2.6)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)9.83 (7.17, 13.5)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)13.2 (8.53, 20.5)
Age
 <70 years34481.7 (1.2, 2.3)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)11.1 (7.11, 17.4)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)12.6 (7.16, 22.3)3.4 (2.5, 4.3)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)14.7 (9.86, 21.8)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)17.7 (10.6, 29.7)
 ≥70 years64600.8 (0.6, 1.1)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.43 (3.01, 6.53)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.68 (2.99, 7.33)1.0 (0.7, 1.3)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.08 (2.83, 5.88)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.54 (2.89, 7.13)
CCI
 065631.2 (0.9, 1.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.04 (5.00, 9.12)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.60 (5.06, 11.4)2.3 (1.8, 2.8)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)8.55 (6.30, 11.6)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)12.0 (7.67, 18.8)
 116131.2 (0.6, 1.9)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)7.30 (3.64, 14.6)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)8.45 (3.98, 17.9)1.4 (0.7, 2.1)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)6.65 (3.42, 12.9)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)8.43 (3.92, 18.1)
 ≥217320.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)3.86 (1.69, 8.80)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)4.45 (1.50, 13.2)0.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.36 (1.52, 7.40)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.85 (1.43, 10.3)
TAB
 Positive34061.8 (1.3, 2.3)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)12.9 (8.38, 19.8)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)13.1 (8.43, 20.2)2.9 (2.1, 3.6)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.76, 21.1)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.64, 21.6)
 Negative33680.6 (0.3, 0.9)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)3.85 (2.14, 6.91)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)4.07 (2.22, 7.48)1.1 (0.6, 1.6)0.9 (0.4, 1.3)4.67 (2.77, 7.88)0.9 (0.4, 1.4)5.25 (2.96, 9.32)
 None31340.9 (0.4, 1.3)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.57 (1.99, 6.39)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.89 (2.04, 7.43)1.3 (0.7, 2.0)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.00 (2.31, 6.92)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.43 (2.42, 8.11)
Combinations
 Female, <70 years22282.0 (1.3, 2.7)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.1 (10.1, 32.4)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.0 (9.87, 32.7)4.1 (2.9, 5.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.5 (12.3, 34.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.3 (12.0, 34.5)
 Female, positive TAB23301.8 (1.2, 2.4)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.6 (7.58, 21.0)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.9 (7.64, 21.8)3.2 (2.2, 4.1)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)14.9 (9.51, 23.4)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)15.0 (9.35, 24.0)
 <70 years, positive TAB10183.0 (1.7, 4.2)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)30.1 (13.5, 67.3)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)29.6 (12.9, 67.9)5.3 (3.5, 7.2)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)37.8 (18.2, 78.5)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)38.6 (17.9, 83.3)
 Female, <70 years, positive TAB6673.2 (1.7, 4.8)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)34.9 (12.9, 94.6)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)41.0 (12.2, 138)6.2 (3.8, 8.7)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.7 (16.7, 94.6)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.9 (16.2, 98.3)
10 years following index
15 years following index
NumberCrude
Adjusteda
Crude
Adjusteda
CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)CIP (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)RD (95% CI)RR (95% CI)
Overall99081.1 (0.9, 1.4)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)6.52 (4.90, 8.67)1.0 (0.7, 1.2)7.39 (5.23, 10.5)1.9 (1.5, 2.2)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)7.53 (5.81, 9.76)1.6 (1.2, 2.0)11.2 (7.41, 16.9)
Sex
 Male33070.9 (0.5, 1.4)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.73 (2.23, 6.26)0.7 (0.3, 1.1)3.86 (2.26, 6.60)1.3 (0.7, 1.8)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)4.06 (2.49, 6.62)1.0 (0.4, 1.5)5.18 (2.56, 10.5)
 Female66011.2 (0.9, 1.5)1.1 (0.8, 1.4)8.87 (6.23, 12.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)9.77 (6.69, 14.3)2.1 (1.6, 2.6)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)9.83 (7.17, 13.5)1.9 (1.4, 2.4)13.2 (8.53, 20.5)
Age
 <70 years34481.7 (1.2, 2.3)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)11.1 (7.11, 17.4)1.6 (1.0, 2.1)12.6 (7.16, 22.3)3.4 (2.5, 4.3)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)14.7 (9.86, 21.8)3.2 (2.3, 4.1)17.7 (10.6, 29.7)
 ≥70 years64600.8 (0.6, 1.1)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.43 (3.01, 6.53)0.6 (0.4, 0.9)4.68 (2.99, 7.33)1.0 (0.7, 1.3)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.08 (2.83, 5.88)0.8 (0.5, 1.1)4.54 (2.89, 7.13)
CCI
 065631.2 (0.9, 1.6)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.04 (5.00, 9.12)1.1 (0.7, 1.4)7.60 (5.06, 11.4)2.3 (1.8, 2.8)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)8.55 (6.30, 11.6)2.0 (1.5, 2.5)12.0 (7.67, 18.8)
 116131.2 (0.6, 1.9)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)7.30 (3.64, 14.6)1.0 (0.4, 1.7)8.45 (3.98, 17.9)1.4 (0.7, 2.1)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)6.65 (3.42, 12.9)1.2 (0.5, 1.9)8.43 (3.92, 18.1)
 ≥217320.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)3.86 (1.69, 8.80)0.5 (0.0, 1.0)4.45 (1.50, 13.2)0.7 (0.2, 1.2)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.36 (1.52, 7.40)0.5 (−0.0, 1.0)3.85 (1.43, 10.3)
TAB
 Positive34061.8 (1.3, 2.3)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)12.9 (8.38, 19.8)1.7 (1.1, 2.2)13.1 (8.43, 20.2)2.9 (2.1, 3.6)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.76, 21.1)2.7 (1.9, 3.4)14.4 (9.64, 21.6)
 Negative33680.6 (0.3, 0.9)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)3.85 (2.14, 6.91)0.5 (0.1, 0.8)4.07 (2.22, 7.48)1.1 (0.6, 1.6)0.9 (0.4, 1.3)4.67 (2.77, 7.88)0.9 (0.4, 1.4)5.25 (2.96, 9.32)
 None31340.9 (0.4, 1.3)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.57 (1.99, 6.39)0.6 (0.2, 1.1)3.89 (2.04, 7.43)1.3 (0.7, 2.0)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.00 (2.31, 6.92)1.0 (0.4, 1.6)4.43 (2.42, 8.11)
Combinations
 Female, <70 years22282.0 (1.3, 2.7)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.1 (10.1, 32.4)1.9 (1.2, 2.6)18.0 (9.87, 32.7)4.1 (2.9, 5.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.5 (12.3, 34.3)3.9 (2.7, 5.1)20.3 (12.0, 34.5)
 Female, positive TAB23301.8 (1.2, 2.4)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.6 (7.58, 21.0)1.7 (1.0, 2.3)12.9 (7.64, 21.8)3.2 (2.2, 4.1)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)14.9 (9.51, 23.4)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)15.0 (9.35, 24.0)
 <70 years, positive TAB10183.0 (1.7, 4.2)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)30.1 (13.5, 67.3)2.9 (1.6, 4.1)29.6 (12.9, 67.9)5.3 (3.5, 7.2)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)37.8 (18.2, 78.5)5.2 (3.3, 7.0)38.6 (17.9, 83.3)
 Female, <70 years, positive TAB6673.2 (1.7, 4.8)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)34.9 (12.9, 94.6)3.1 (1.6, 4.7)41.0 (12.2, 138)6.2 (3.8, 8.7)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.7 (16.7, 94.6)6.1 (3.6, 8.5)39.9 (16.2, 98.3)

Values are expressed as cumulative incidence proportions (CIP), risk differences (RDs) and as relative risks (RRs), 10 and 15 years after start of follow-up with 95% CIs. Index date was defined as the date of redeeming the third prednisolone prescription. Values were calculated among 9908 patients with GCA compared with 98 204 individuals from the general population. aAdjusted for Charlson Comorbidity Index. In this stratification matching was broken. CCI: Charlson Comorbidity Index; TAB: temporal artery biopsy.

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