This table reports regression results of the effect of loan guarantees on worker-level outcomes. Panel A presents the baseline reduced-form results with the regional intensity of the recovery plan, Guarantee$region,09−10$ as main explanatory variable. Panel B presents the corresponding 2SLS estimates, and panel C presents reduced-form results using the raw treatment variable, Raw guarantee$region,09−10$⁠, defined as the average regional ratio of loans guaranteed under the recovery plan in 2009–2010 scaled by assets in 2008, computed across SMEs outside the border area. Earnings are the sum of earnings 2009–2015 scaled by average annual earnings 2006–2008. All regressions include department pair fixed effects, distance to the border, as well as changes in regional controls from 2008 to 2010 (public spending, local taxes, public equipment expenditures, public debt, state contribution, value-added of non-SMEs, and regional bank lending) and firm-level controls (logarithm of assets, ROA, logarithm of firm age, dividend/sales, PPE/assets, debt/assets, credit risk and two-digit industry fixed effects). Worker-level controls added in columns 2 and 4 include worker age, gender, and occupation fixed effects. Firm- and worker-level controls are measured in 2008. Standard errors clustered by region are reported in parentheses.

$p<.1$⁠;

$p<.05$⁠;

$p<.01$⁠.