Table 4. Open in new tab Results for...

	Policy period first half	Policy period second half	Post-policy period
Robberies—Person, store, or house
Odd (men only) days	0.1425	0.69	0.3298	0.28	0.6227**	0.03
Even (women only) days	0.3160	0.31	0.5572**	0.03	0.6496	0.1
Intra-family violence
Odd (men only) days	0.1658	0.97	0.0634	0.86	0.0269	0.97
Even (women only) days	0.0383	0.69	−0.0448	1.00	0.1955	0.72
Sexual crimes
Odd (men only) days	−0.1547	0.45	−0.2660	0.31	−0.1893	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.1656	0.31	0.0892	0.31	−0.3015	0.48
Homicide or injuries
Odd (men only) days	0.3872	0.52	0.0765	0.97	−0.0187	0.79
Even (women only) days	0.0172	0.72	0.3068	0.90	0.3601	0.62
Threats
Odd (men only) days	0.1237	0.38	0.3614	0.38	0.4072	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.4078	0.66	0.1753	0.52	0.4584	0.72

Policy period first half

Policy period second half

Post-policy period

Estimate

p-value

Estimate

p-value

Estimate

p-value

Robberies—Person, store, or house

Odd (men only) days

0.1425

0.69

0.3298

0.28

0.6227**

0.03

Even (women only) days

0.3160

0.31

0.5572**

0.03

0.6496

0.1

Intra-family violence

Odd (men only) days

0.1658

0.97

0.0634

0.86

0.0269

0.97

Even (women only) days

0.0383

0.69

−0.0448

1.00

0.1955

0.72

Sexual crimes

Odd (men only) days

−0.1547

0.45

−0.2660

0.31

−0.1893

0.66

Even (women only) days

0.1656

0.31

0.0892

0.31

−0.3015

0.48

Homicide or injuries

Odd (men only) days

0.3872

0.52

0.0765

0.97

−0.0187

0.79

Even (women only) days

0.0172

0.72

0.3068

0.90

0.3601

0.62

Threats

Odd (men only) days

0.1237

0.38

0.3614

0.38

0.4072

0.66

Even (women only) days

0.4078

0.66

0.1753

0.52

0.4584

0.72

	Policy period first half	Policy period second half	Post-policy period
Robberies—Person, store, or house
Odd (men only) days	0.1425	0.69	0.3298	0.28	0.6227**	0.03
Even (women only) days	0.3160	0.31	0.5572**	0.03	0.6496	0.1
Intra-family violence
Odd (men only) days	0.1658	0.97	0.0634	0.86	0.0269	0.97
Even (women only) days	0.0383	0.69	−0.0448	1.00	0.1955	0.72
Sexual crimes
Odd (men only) days	−0.1547	0.45	−0.2660	0.31	−0.1893	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.1656	0.31	0.0892	0.31	−0.3015	0.48
Homicide or injuries
Odd (men only) days	0.3872	0.52	0.0765	0.97	−0.0187	0.79
Even (women only) days	0.0172	0.72	0.3068	0.90	0.3601	0.62
Threats
Odd (men only) days	0.1237	0.38	0.3614	0.38	0.4072	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.4078	0.66	0.1753	0.52	0.4584	0.72

Table 4.

Open in new tab

Results for Crime by Category and Dividing Policy Period—Female Victims

	Policy period first half		Policy period second half		Post-policy period
	Estimate	p-value	Estimate	p-value	Estimate	p-value
Robberies—Person, store, or house
Odd (men only) days	0.1425	0.69	0.3298	0.28	0.6227**	0.03
Even (women only) days	0.3160	0.31	0.5572**	0.03	0.6496	0.1
Intra-family violence
Odd (men only) days	0.1658	0.97	0.0634	0.86	0.0269	0.97
Even (women only) days	0.0383	0.69	−0.0448	1.00	0.1955	0.72
Sexual crimes
Odd (men only) days	−0.1547	0.45	−0.2660	0.31	−0.1893	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.1656	0.31	0.0892	0.31	−0.3015	0.48
Homicide or injuries
Odd (men only) days	0.3872	0.52	0.0765	0.97	−0.0187	0.79
Even (women only) days	0.0172	0.72	0.3068	0.90	0.3601	0.62
Threats
Odd (men only) days	0.1237	0.38	0.3614	0.38	0.4072	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.4078	0.66	0.1753	0.52	0.4584	0.72

	Policy period first half		Policy period second half		Post-policy period
	Estimate	p-value	Estimate	p-value	Estimate	p-value
Robberies—Person, store, or house
Odd (men only) days	0.1425	0.69	0.3298	0.28	0.6227**	0.03
Even (women only) days	0.3160	0.31	0.5572**	0.03	0.6496	0.1
Intra-family violence
Odd (men only) days	0.1658	0.97	0.0634	0.86	0.0269	0.97
Even (women only) days	0.0383	0.69	−0.0448	1.00	0.1955	0.72
Sexual crimes
Odd (men only) days	−0.1547	0.45	−0.2660	0.31	−0.1893	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.1656	0.31	0.0892	0.31	−0.3015	0.48
Homicide or injuries
Odd (men only) days	0.3872	0.52	0.0765	0.97	−0.0187	0.79
Even (women only) days	0.0172	0.72	0.3068	0.90	0.3601	0.62
Threats
Odd (men only) days	0.1237	0.38	0.3614	0.38	0.4072	0.66
Even (women only) days	0.4078	0.66	0.1753	0.52	0.4584	0.72

Source: Authors’ own calculations based on data from the National Police of Colombia from the year 2020 and the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE).

Note: This table shows the difference in the logarithm of crime per capita between the real Bogota and the synthetic Bogota for different categories of crime. “Policy period first half” refers to the days between April 13 and April 26, while “policy period second half” refers to the days between April 27 (when certain sectors began re-opening) and May 10. “Post-policy period” refers to the days between May 11 and May 31. The p-values were generated based on the permutation distribution of RMSPE^post/RMSPE^pre. The pre-RMSPE is the root-mean squared percentage error of the pre-policy period for the p-values of the policy period and the post-policy period. The post-RMSPE consists of the root-mean squared percentage error of the policy period and the only post-policy period respectively. p|$\lt$|0.1, ** p|$\lt$|0.05, *** p|$\lt$|0.01.

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