Table 1.

Summary of explanatory factors

VariableExpected effect
Society-centered factors
1. Polarized mass protestPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as perpetrator or accomplice
2. Military background of political leaderPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as accomplice
3. Military veto power and weak civilian controlIncreases vulnerability of incumbent and strengthens the military’s ability to act as perpetrator
4. Incumbent political partyStrong political party reduced incumbent dependency on military; military will act as bystander or accomplice
Military-centric factors
5. Military interests threatened by incumbentPushes the military to act as perpetrator, negatively affects the military’s willingness to act as accomplice or bystander
6. Praetorian traditionPositively affects the military’s willingness to act against democracy, either as perpetrator or accomplice
7. Internal security and public order operations as appropriate missionsPositively affects the willingness of the military to act as accomplice
VariableExpected effect
Society-centered factors
1. Polarized mass protestPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as perpetrator or accomplice
2. Military background of political leaderPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as accomplice
3. Military veto power and weak civilian controlIncreases vulnerability of incumbent and strengthens the military’s ability to act as perpetrator
4. Incumbent political partyStrong political party reduced incumbent dependency on military; military will act as bystander or accomplice
Military-centric factors
5. Military interests threatened by incumbentPushes the military to act as perpetrator, negatively affects the military’s willingness to act as accomplice or bystander
6. Praetorian traditionPositively affects the military’s willingness to act against democracy, either as perpetrator or accomplice
7. Internal security and public order operations as appropriate missionsPositively affects the willingness of the military to act as accomplice
Table 1.

Summary of explanatory factors

VariableExpected effect
Society-centered factors
1. Polarized mass protestPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as perpetrator or accomplice
2. Military background of political leaderPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as accomplice
3. Military veto power and weak civilian controlIncreases vulnerability of incumbent and strengthens the military’s ability to act as perpetrator
4. Incumbent political partyStrong political party reduced incumbent dependency on military; military will act as bystander or accomplice
Military-centric factors
5. Military interests threatened by incumbentPushes the military to act as perpetrator, negatively affects the military’s willingness to act as accomplice or bystander
6. Praetorian traditionPositively affects the military’s willingness to act against democracy, either as perpetrator or accomplice
7. Internal security and public order operations as appropriate missionsPositively affects the willingness of the military to act as accomplice
VariableExpected effect
Society-centered factors
1. Polarized mass protestPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as perpetrator or accomplice
2. Military background of political leaderPulls the military into the political arena, positively affects the military’s role as accomplice
3. Military veto power and weak civilian controlIncreases vulnerability of incumbent and strengthens the military’s ability to act as perpetrator
4. Incumbent political partyStrong political party reduced incumbent dependency on military; military will act as bystander or accomplice
Military-centric factors
5. Military interests threatened by incumbentPushes the military to act as perpetrator, negatively affects the military’s willingness to act as accomplice or bystander
6. Praetorian traditionPositively affects the military’s willingness to act against democracy, either as perpetrator or accomplice
7. Internal security and public order operations as appropriate missionsPositively affects the willingness of the military to act as accomplice
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