(1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . | (9) . | (10) . | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Corr() . | |
d/e | 7.41 | 28.35*** | −0.66 | 5.22*** | 768.03*** | −1.70 | 62.42*** | 13.52 | 449.11*** | −0.09* |
lty | 7.32 | 29.07*** | −0.63 | 5.21*** | 24.67** | −0.20 | 5.89*** | 5.57 | 212.16*** | −0.12*** |
d/y | 7.43 | 28.47*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 8.87 | 0.78*** | 6.04*** | 8.87 | 27.48*** | −0.03 |
d/p | 7.45 | 29.01*** | −0.66 | 5.18*** | 8.68 | 0.77*** | 5.99*** | 7.66 | 22.26** | −0.99*** |
tbl | 7.34 | 29.37*** | −0.63 | 5.23*** | 190.45*** | −1.66 | 32.75*** | 61.56*** | 373.47*** | −0.04 |
e/p | 7.20 | 30.08*** | −0.63 | 5.15*** | 228.77*** | 1.02*** | 36.85*** | 2.45 | 146.66*** | −0.61*** |
b/m | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 21.07** | 0.58*** | 13.96*** | 2.84 | 79.17*** | −0.65*** |
dfy | 7.26 | 28.47*** | −0.64 | 5.20*** | 104.34*** | 1.48*** | 15.75*** | 3.80 | 56.20*** | −0.16*** |
ntis | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 112.28*** | 0.21* | 9.96*** | 27.38*** | 61.77*** | 0.06 |
tms | 7.33 | 29.1*** | −0.65 | 5.23*** | 63.28*** | 0.14 | 22.73*** | 19.14* | 124.94*** | −0.04 |
inf | 7.19 | 31.02*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 61.18*** | −0.24 | 4.99*** | 3.19 | 110.44*** | −0.01 |
(1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . | (9) . | (10) . | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Corr() . | |
d/e | 7.41 | 28.35*** | −0.66 | 5.22*** | 768.03*** | −1.70 | 62.42*** | 13.52 | 449.11*** | −0.09* |
lty | 7.32 | 29.07*** | −0.63 | 5.21*** | 24.67** | −0.20 | 5.89*** | 5.57 | 212.16*** | −0.12*** |
d/y | 7.43 | 28.47*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 8.87 | 0.78*** | 6.04*** | 8.87 | 27.48*** | −0.03 |
d/p | 7.45 | 29.01*** | −0.66 | 5.18*** | 8.68 | 0.77*** | 5.99*** | 7.66 | 22.26** | −0.99*** |
tbl | 7.34 | 29.37*** | −0.63 | 5.23*** | 190.45*** | −1.66 | 32.75*** | 61.56*** | 373.47*** | −0.04 |
e/p | 7.20 | 30.08*** | −0.63 | 5.15*** | 228.77*** | 1.02*** | 36.85*** | 2.45 | 146.66*** | −0.61*** |
b/m | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 21.07** | 0.58*** | 13.96*** | 2.84 | 79.17*** | −0.65*** |
dfy | 7.26 | 28.47*** | −0.64 | 5.20*** | 104.34*** | 1.48*** | 15.75*** | 3.80 | 56.20*** | −0.16*** |
ntis | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 112.28*** | 0.21* | 9.96*** | 27.38*** | 61.77*** | 0.06 |
tms | 7.33 | 29.1*** | −0.65 | 5.23*** | 63.28*** | 0.14 | 22.73*** | 19.14* | 124.94*** | −0.04 |
inf | 7.19 | 31.02*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 61.18*** | −0.24 | 4.99*** | 3.19 | 110.44*** | −0.01 |
Notes: This table documents summary statistics for three estimated residuals. refers to the OLS residuals from the simple linear model , where yt is the monthly S&P 500 value-weighted log excess returns between 1980 and 2019, and is one of eleven predictive variables: d/e, lty, d/y, d/p, tbl, e/p, b/m, dfy, ntis, tms, and inf. refers to the residuals from the AR(1) model: . refers to the residuals of the ARMA(p, q) model with orders p and q determined by the AIC. Ljung–Box denotes a serial correlation test proposed by Ljung and Box (1978) with 12 lags. Skewness and kurtosis represent sample skewness and sample excess kurtosis of residuals. Corr() represents sample correlation coefficients between and . *, **, and *** indicate the rejection of the null hypothesis at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.
(1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . | (9) . | (10) . | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Corr() . | |
d/e | 7.41 | 28.35*** | −0.66 | 5.22*** | 768.03*** | −1.70 | 62.42*** | 13.52 | 449.11*** | −0.09* |
lty | 7.32 | 29.07*** | −0.63 | 5.21*** | 24.67** | −0.20 | 5.89*** | 5.57 | 212.16*** | −0.12*** |
d/y | 7.43 | 28.47*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 8.87 | 0.78*** | 6.04*** | 8.87 | 27.48*** | −0.03 |
d/p | 7.45 | 29.01*** | −0.66 | 5.18*** | 8.68 | 0.77*** | 5.99*** | 7.66 | 22.26** | −0.99*** |
tbl | 7.34 | 29.37*** | −0.63 | 5.23*** | 190.45*** | −1.66 | 32.75*** | 61.56*** | 373.47*** | −0.04 |
e/p | 7.20 | 30.08*** | −0.63 | 5.15*** | 228.77*** | 1.02*** | 36.85*** | 2.45 | 146.66*** | −0.61*** |
b/m | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 21.07** | 0.58*** | 13.96*** | 2.84 | 79.17*** | −0.65*** |
dfy | 7.26 | 28.47*** | −0.64 | 5.20*** | 104.34*** | 1.48*** | 15.75*** | 3.80 | 56.20*** | −0.16*** |
ntis | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 112.28*** | 0.21* | 9.96*** | 27.38*** | 61.77*** | 0.06 |
tms | 7.33 | 29.1*** | −0.65 | 5.23*** | 63.28*** | 0.14 | 22.73*** | 19.14* | 124.94*** | −0.04 |
inf | 7.19 | 31.02*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 61.18*** | −0.24 | 4.99*** | 3.19 | 110.44*** | −0.01 |
(1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . | (9) . | (10) . | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Skewness() . | Kurtosis() . | Ljung–Box() . | Ljung–Box() . | Corr() . | |
d/e | 7.41 | 28.35*** | −0.66 | 5.22*** | 768.03*** | −1.70 | 62.42*** | 13.52 | 449.11*** | −0.09* |
lty | 7.32 | 29.07*** | −0.63 | 5.21*** | 24.67** | −0.20 | 5.89*** | 5.57 | 212.16*** | −0.12*** |
d/y | 7.43 | 28.47*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 8.87 | 0.78*** | 6.04*** | 8.87 | 27.48*** | −0.03 |
d/p | 7.45 | 29.01*** | −0.66 | 5.18*** | 8.68 | 0.77*** | 5.99*** | 7.66 | 22.26** | −0.99*** |
tbl | 7.34 | 29.37*** | −0.63 | 5.23*** | 190.45*** | −1.66 | 32.75*** | 61.56*** | 373.47*** | −0.04 |
e/p | 7.20 | 30.08*** | −0.63 | 5.15*** | 228.77*** | 1.02*** | 36.85*** | 2.45 | 146.66*** | −0.61*** |
b/m | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.17*** | 21.07** | 0.58*** | 13.96*** | 2.84 | 79.17*** | −0.65*** |
dfy | 7.26 | 28.47*** | −0.64 | 5.20*** | 104.34*** | 1.48*** | 15.75*** | 3.80 | 56.20*** | −0.16*** |
ntis | 7.32 | 28.94*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 112.28*** | 0.21* | 9.96*** | 27.38*** | 61.77*** | 0.06 |
tms | 7.33 | 29.1*** | −0.65 | 5.23*** | 63.28*** | 0.14 | 22.73*** | 19.14* | 124.94*** | −0.04 |
inf | 7.19 | 31.02*** | −0.65 | 5.21*** | 61.18*** | −0.24 | 4.99*** | 3.19 | 110.44*** | −0.01 |
Notes: This table documents summary statistics for three estimated residuals. refers to the OLS residuals from the simple linear model , where yt is the monthly S&P 500 value-weighted log excess returns between 1980 and 2019, and is one of eleven predictive variables: d/e, lty, d/y, d/p, tbl, e/p, b/m, dfy, ntis, tms, and inf. refers to the residuals from the AR(1) model: . refers to the residuals of the ARMA(p, q) model with orders p and q determined by the AIC. Ljung–Box denotes a serial correlation test proposed by Ljung and Box (1978) with 12 lags. Skewness and kurtosis represent sample skewness and sample excess kurtosis of residuals. Corr() represents sample correlation coefficients between and . *, **, and *** indicate the rejection of the null hypothesis at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.
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