Table 6

Summary statistics for estimated ut, et, and vt

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
Ljung–Box(u^t)Ljung–Box(u^t2)Skewness(u^t)Kurtosis(u^t)Ljung–Box(e^t)Skewness(e^t)Kurtosis(e^t)Ljung–Box(v^t)Ljung–Box(v^t2)Corr(u^t,v^t)
d/e7.4128.35***−0.665.22***768.03***−1.7062.42***13.52449.11***−0.09*
lty7.3229.07***−0.635.21***24.67**−0.205.89***5.57212.16***−0.12***
d/y7.4328.47***−0.655.17***8.870.78***6.04***8.8727.48***−0.03
d/p7.4529.01***−0.665.18***8.680.77***5.99***7.6622.26**−0.99***
tbl7.3429.37***−0.635.23***190.45***−1.6632.75***61.56***373.47***−0.04
e/p7.2030.08***−0.635.15***228.77***1.02***36.85***2.45146.66***−0.61***
b/m7.3228.94***−0.655.17***21.07**0.58***13.96***2.8479.17***−0.65***
dfy7.2628.47***−0.645.20***104.34***1.48***15.75***3.8056.20***−0.16***
ntis7.3228.94***−0.655.21***112.28***0.21*9.96***27.38***61.77***0.06
tms7.3329.1***−0.655.23***63.28***0.1422.73***19.14*124.94***−0.04
inf7.1931.02***−0.655.21***61.18***−0.244.99***3.19110.44***−0.01
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
Ljung–Box(u^t)Ljung–Box(u^t2)Skewness(u^t)Kurtosis(u^t)Ljung–Box(e^t)Skewness(e^t)Kurtosis(e^t)Ljung–Box(v^t)Ljung–Box(v^t2)Corr(u^t,v^t)
d/e7.4128.35***−0.665.22***768.03***−1.7062.42***13.52449.11***−0.09*
lty7.3229.07***−0.635.21***24.67**−0.205.89***5.57212.16***−0.12***
d/y7.4328.47***−0.655.17***8.870.78***6.04***8.8727.48***−0.03
d/p7.4529.01***−0.665.18***8.680.77***5.99***7.6622.26**−0.99***
tbl7.3429.37***−0.635.23***190.45***−1.6632.75***61.56***373.47***−0.04
e/p7.2030.08***−0.635.15***228.77***1.02***36.85***2.45146.66***−0.61***
b/m7.3228.94***−0.655.17***21.07**0.58***13.96***2.8479.17***−0.65***
dfy7.2628.47***−0.645.20***104.34***1.48***15.75***3.8056.20***−0.16***
ntis7.3228.94***−0.655.21***112.28***0.21*9.96***27.38***61.77***0.06
tms7.3329.1***−0.655.23***63.28***0.1422.73***19.14*124.94***−0.04
inf7.1931.02***−0.655.21***61.18***−0.244.99***3.19110.44***−0.01

Notes: This table documents summary statistics for three estimated residuals. u^t refers to the OLS residuals from the simple linear model yt=α+βxt1+ut, where yt is the monthly S&P 500 value-weighted log excess returns between 1980 and 2019, and xt1 is one of eleven predictive variables: d/e, lty, d/y, d/p, tbl, e/p, b/m, dfy, ntis, tms, and inf. e^t refers to the residuals from the AR(1) model: xt=μ+ρxt1+et. v^t refers to the residuals of the ARMA(p, q) model with orders p and q determined by the AIC. Ljung–Box denotes a serial correlation test proposed by Ljung and Box (1978) with 12 lags. Skewness and kurtosis represent sample skewness and sample excess kurtosis of residuals. Corr(u^t,v^t) represents sample correlation coefficients between u^t and v^t. *, **, and *** indicate the rejection of the null hypothesis at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.

Table 6

Summary statistics for estimated ut, et, and vt

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
Ljung–Box(u^t)Ljung–Box(u^t2)Skewness(u^t)Kurtosis(u^t)Ljung–Box(e^t)Skewness(e^t)Kurtosis(e^t)Ljung–Box(v^t)Ljung–Box(v^t2)Corr(u^t,v^t)
d/e7.4128.35***−0.665.22***768.03***−1.7062.42***13.52449.11***−0.09*
lty7.3229.07***−0.635.21***24.67**−0.205.89***5.57212.16***−0.12***
d/y7.4328.47***−0.655.17***8.870.78***6.04***8.8727.48***−0.03
d/p7.4529.01***−0.665.18***8.680.77***5.99***7.6622.26**−0.99***
tbl7.3429.37***−0.635.23***190.45***−1.6632.75***61.56***373.47***−0.04
e/p7.2030.08***−0.635.15***228.77***1.02***36.85***2.45146.66***−0.61***
b/m7.3228.94***−0.655.17***21.07**0.58***13.96***2.8479.17***−0.65***
dfy7.2628.47***−0.645.20***104.34***1.48***15.75***3.8056.20***−0.16***
ntis7.3228.94***−0.655.21***112.28***0.21*9.96***27.38***61.77***0.06
tms7.3329.1***−0.655.23***63.28***0.1422.73***19.14*124.94***−0.04
inf7.1931.02***−0.655.21***61.18***−0.244.99***3.19110.44***−0.01
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)
Ljung–Box(u^t)Ljung–Box(u^t2)Skewness(u^t)Kurtosis(u^t)Ljung–Box(e^t)Skewness(e^t)Kurtosis(e^t)Ljung–Box(v^t)Ljung–Box(v^t2)Corr(u^t,v^t)
d/e7.4128.35***−0.665.22***768.03***−1.7062.42***13.52449.11***−0.09*
lty7.3229.07***−0.635.21***24.67**−0.205.89***5.57212.16***−0.12***
d/y7.4328.47***−0.655.17***8.870.78***6.04***8.8727.48***−0.03
d/p7.4529.01***−0.665.18***8.680.77***5.99***7.6622.26**−0.99***
tbl7.3429.37***−0.635.23***190.45***−1.6632.75***61.56***373.47***−0.04
e/p7.2030.08***−0.635.15***228.77***1.02***36.85***2.45146.66***−0.61***
b/m7.3228.94***−0.655.17***21.07**0.58***13.96***2.8479.17***−0.65***
dfy7.2628.47***−0.645.20***104.34***1.48***15.75***3.8056.20***−0.16***
ntis7.3228.94***−0.655.21***112.28***0.21*9.96***27.38***61.77***0.06
tms7.3329.1***−0.655.23***63.28***0.1422.73***19.14*124.94***−0.04
inf7.1931.02***−0.655.21***61.18***−0.244.99***3.19110.44***−0.01

Notes: This table documents summary statistics for three estimated residuals. u^t refers to the OLS residuals from the simple linear model yt=α+βxt1+ut, where yt is the monthly S&P 500 value-weighted log excess returns between 1980 and 2019, and xt1 is one of eleven predictive variables: d/e, lty, d/y, d/p, tbl, e/p, b/m, dfy, ntis, tms, and inf. e^t refers to the residuals from the AR(1) model: xt=μ+ρxt1+et. v^t refers to the residuals of the ARMA(p, q) model with orders p and q determined by the AIC. Ljung–Box denotes a serial correlation test proposed by Ljung and Box (1978) with 12 lags. Skewness and kurtosis represent sample skewness and sample excess kurtosis of residuals. Corr(u^t,v^t) represents sample correlation coefficients between u^t and v^t. *, **, and *** indicate the rejection of the null hypothesis at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.

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