Regional statistical analysis of the CAP data since 6000 BCE, by means of simulated histories. The different columns list (from left to right): the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval (in brackets) of the histories size; the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval of the interevent time (MIET); the percentage of rejection of Poisson Model, given by ΔBIC and the Lilliefors test; the median probability of one or more events (in brackets the minimum and maximum probabilities) for the next 10, 50 and 100 yr.
Information on simulated histories . | Statistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent) . | Probability of next event (per cent) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of events . | MIET (yr) . | ΔBIC . | Lillifors . | 10 yr . | 50 yr . | 100 yr . |
49 (47 52) | 120 (90 170) | 0.10 | 0.49 | 6.2 (5.6 6.7) | 27.0 (25.0 29.0) | 47.0 (44.0 50.0) |
Information on simulated histories . | Statistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent) . | Probability of next event (per cent) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of events . | MIET (yr) . | ΔBIC . | Lillifors . | 10 yr . | 50 yr . | 100 yr . |
49 (47 52) | 120 (90 170) | 0.10 | 0.49 | 6.2 (5.6 6.7) | 27.0 (25.0 29.0) | 47.0 (44.0 50.0) |
Regional statistical analysis of the CAP data since 6000 BCE, by means of simulated histories. The different columns list (from left to right): the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval (in brackets) of the histories size; the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval of the interevent time (MIET); the percentage of rejection of Poisson Model, given by ΔBIC and the Lilliefors test; the median probability of one or more events (in brackets the minimum and maximum probabilities) for the next 10, 50 and 100 yr.
Information on simulated histories . | Statistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent) . | Probability of next event (per cent) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of events . | MIET (yr) . | ΔBIC . | Lillifors . | 10 yr . | 50 yr . | 100 yr . |
49 (47 52) | 120 (90 170) | 0.10 | 0.49 | 6.2 (5.6 6.7) | 27.0 (25.0 29.0) | 47.0 (44.0 50.0) |
Information on simulated histories . | Statistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent) . | Probability of next event (per cent) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of events . | MIET (yr) . | ΔBIC . | Lillifors . | 10 yr . | 50 yr . | 100 yr . |
49 (47 52) | 120 (90 170) | 0.10 | 0.49 | 6.2 (5.6 6.7) | 27.0 (25.0 29.0) | 47.0 (44.0 50.0) |
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