Table 4.

Regional statistical analysis of the CAP data since 6000 BCE, by means of simulated histories. The different columns list (from left to right): the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval (in brackets) of the histories size; the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval of the interevent time (MIET); the percentage of rejection of Poisson Model, given by ΔBIC and the Lilliefors test; the median probability of one or more events (in brackets the minimum and maximum probabilities) for the next 10, 50 and 100 yr.

Information on simulated historiesStatistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent)Probability of next event (per cent)
Number of eventsMIET (yr)ΔBICLillifors10 yr50 yr100 yr
49 (47 52)120 (90 170)0.100.496.2 (5.6 6.7)27.0 (25.0 29.0)47.0 (44.0 50.0)
Information on simulated historiesStatistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent)Probability of next event (per cent)
Number of eventsMIET (yr)ΔBICLillifors10 yr50 yr100 yr
49 (47 52)120 (90 170)0.100.496.2 (5.6 6.7)27.0 (25.0 29.0)47.0 (44.0 50.0)
Table 4.

Regional statistical analysis of the CAP data since 6000 BCE, by means of simulated histories. The different columns list (from left to right): the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval (in brackets) of the histories size; the median and the 90 per cent confidence interval of the interevent time (MIET); the percentage of rejection of Poisson Model, given by ΔBIC and the Lilliefors test; the median probability of one or more events (in brackets the minimum and maximum probabilities) for the next 10, 50 and 100 yr.

Information on simulated historiesStatistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent)Probability of next event (per cent)
Number of eventsMIET (yr)ΔBICLillifors10 yr50 yr100 yr
49 (47 52)120 (90 170)0.100.496.2 (5.6 6.7)27.0 (25.0 29.0)47.0 (44.0 50.0)
Information on simulated historiesStatistical tests (s.l. 0.01) percentage of rejection (per cent)Probability of next event (per cent)
Number of eventsMIET (yr)ΔBICLillifors10 yr50 yr100 yr
49 (47 52)120 (90 170)0.100.496.2 (5.6 6.7)27.0 (25.0 29.0)47.0 (44.0 50.0)
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