Table 4. Open in new tab Coding...

	Cooperation gains at risk	Contagion risks
Scoring:	1.0: Very few 1.5: Few 2.0: Some 2.5: Substantial 3.0: Critical	1.0: None 1.5: Minimal 2.0: Some 2.5: Large 3.0: Very large	1.0: Not important in any area 1.5: Not important, single area 2.0: Important in few areas 2.5: Important in several areas 3.0: Important in most areas	1.0: Single 1.5: Few 2.0: Several 2.5: Many 3.0: All	1.0: Isolated 1.5: Isolated, slight impact over time 2.5: Recurring, period vaguely defined 3.0: Recurring indefinitely	Unweighted average	1.0: Utility lower 1.5: Utility same 2.0: Utility somewhat higher 2.5: Utility higher 3.0: Utility much higher	1.0: No actors 1.5: Few actors, politically weak 2.0: Some pol. weak actors 2.5: Some pol. powerful actors 3.0: Many pol. powerful actors	1.0: More powerful than all others 1.5: More powerful than some 2.0: As powerful 2.5: Somewhat less powerful 3.0: Less powerful	1.0: No other state 1.5: Few other states 2.0: Some other states 2.5: Many other states 3.0: Most other states	Unweighted average
Greenland 1982: EC Membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	3.0	1.0	1.9
Switzerland 1986: UN membership	1.0	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	2.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	1.5
Denmark 1992: Maastricht Treaty	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.1
Switzerland 1992: EEA membership	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.0	2.0	1.0	1.9
Norway 1994: EU membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.0	3.0	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	1.9
Ireland 2001: Treaty of Nice	2.0	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.0	2.0	2.5	1.5	2.0
France 2005: EU constitution	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	2.0	1.9
Ireland 2008:Treaty of Lisbon	2.5	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.9	1.5	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.1
Iceland 2010: Icesave I	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Iceland 2011: Icesave II	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Switzerland 2014: Free Movement of People	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.5	3.0	2.5	3.0	3.0	2.5	3.0	2.9
Greece 2015: Bailout Referendum	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	3.0	2.8	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.8
Netherlands 2016: Ukraine–EU Association Agreement	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	3.0	1.8	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.5	2.3
UK 2016: Brexit Referendum	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	3.0	2.6

Cooperation gains at risk

Contagion risks

Case/indicator

Size

Breadth

Time profile

Overall score

Attractiveness

Politicization potential

Bargaining power

Uniqueness

Overall score

Depth

Impact

Challenger importance

relative to status quo

relative to other relevant states

applicable to…

Scoring:

1.0: Very few
1.5: Few
2.0: Some
2.5: Substantial
3.0: Critical

1.0: None
1.5: Minimal
2.0: Some
2.5: Large
3.0: Very large

1.0: Not important in any area
1.5: Not important, single area
2.0: Important in few areas
2.5: Important in several areas
3.0: Important in most areas

1.0: Single
1.5: Few
2.0: Several
2.5: Many
3.0: All

1.0: Isolated
1.5: Isolated, slight impact over time
2.5: Recurring, period vaguely defined
3.0: Recurring indefinitely

Unweighted average

1.0: Utility lower
1.5: Utility same
2.0: Utility somewhat higher
2.5: Utility higher
3.0: Utility much higher

1.0: No actors
1.5: Few actors, politically weak
2.0: Some pol. weak actors
2.5: Some pol. powerful actors
3.0: Many pol. powerful actors

1.0: More powerful than all others
1.5: More powerful than some
2.0: As powerful
2.5: Somewhat less powerful
3.0: Less powerful

1.0: No other state
1.5: Few other states
2.0: Some other states
2.5: Many other states
3.0: Most other states

Unweighted average

Greenland 1982: EC Membership

1.5

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.5

3.0

1.0

1.9

Switzerland 1986: UN membership

1.0

1.5

1.0

1.1

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.5

Denmark 1992: Maastricht Treaty

3.0

2.5

2.0

2.1

Switzerland 1992: EEA membership

2.5

2.0

2.5

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.0

1.0

1.9

Norway 1994: EU membership

1.5

2.0

3.0

1.9

2.0

1.5

1.9

Ireland 2001: Treaty of Nice

2.0

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.5

1.5

2.0

France 2005: EU constitution

3.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

1.9

Ireland 2008:Treaty of Lisbon

2.5

3.0

2.9

1.5

2.5

2.0

2.1

Iceland 2010: Icesave I

1.0

2.5

2.0

3.0

2.5

Iceland 2011: Icesave II

1.0

2.5

2.0

3.0

2.5

Switzerland 2014: Free Movement of People

2.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2.5

3.0

2.5

3.0

2.9

Greece 2015: Bailout Referendum

3.0

2.5

3.0

2.8

3.0

2.5

2.8

Netherlands 2016: Ukraine–EU Association Agreement

1.5

3.0

1.8

2.0

2.5

2.0

2.5

2.3

UK 2016: Brexit Referendum

3.0

1.5

3.0

2.6

	Cooperation gains at risk	Contagion risks
Scoring:	1.0: Very few 1.5: Few 2.0: Some 2.5: Substantial 3.0: Critical	1.0: None 1.5: Minimal 2.0: Some 2.5: Large 3.0: Very large	1.0: Not important in any area 1.5: Not important, single area 2.0: Important in few areas 2.5: Important in several areas 3.0: Important in most areas	1.0: Single 1.5: Few 2.0: Several 2.5: Many 3.0: All	1.0: Isolated 1.5: Isolated, slight impact over time 2.5: Recurring, period vaguely defined 3.0: Recurring indefinitely	Unweighted average	1.0: Utility lower 1.5: Utility same 2.0: Utility somewhat higher 2.5: Utility higher 3.0: Utility much higher	1.0: No actors 1.5: Few actors, politically weak 2.0: Some pol. weak actors 2.5: Some pol. powerful actors 3.0: Many pol. powerful actors	1.0: More powerful than all others 1.5: More powerful than some 2.0: As powerful 2.5: Somewhat less powerful 3.0: Less powerful	1.0: No other state 1.5: Few other states 2.0: Some other states 2.5: Many other states 3.0: Most other states	Unweighted average
Greenland 1982: EC Membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	3.0	1.0	1.9
Switzerland 1986: UN membership	1.0	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	2.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	1.5
Denmark 1992: Maastricht Treaty	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.1
Switzerland 1992: EEA membership	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.0	2.0	1.0	1.9
Norway 1994: EU membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.0	3.0	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	1.9
Ireland 2001: Treaty of Nice	2.0	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.0	2.0	2.5	1.5	2.0
France 2005: EU constitution	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	2.0	1.9
Ireland 2008:Treaty of Lisbon	2.5	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.9	1.5	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.1
Iceland 2010: Icesave I	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Iceland 2011: Icesave II	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Switzerland 2014: Free Movement of People	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.5	3.0	2.5	3.0	3.0	2.5	3.0	2.9
Greece 2015: Bailout Referendum	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	3.0	2.8	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.8
Netherlands 2016: Ukraine–EU Association Agreement	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	3.0	1.8	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.5	2.3
UK 2016: Brexit Referendum	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	3.0	2.6

Cooperation gains at risk

Contagion risks

Case/indicator

Size

Breadth

Time profile

Overall score

Attractiveness

Politicization potential

Bargaining power

Uniqueness

Overall score

Depth

Impact

Challenger importance

relative to status quo

relative to other relevant states

applicable to…

Scoring:

1.0: Very few
1.5: Few
2.0: Some
2.5: Substantial
3.0: Critical

1.0: None
1.5: Minimal
2.0: Some
2.5: Large
3.0: Very large

1.0: Not important in any area
1.5: Not important, single area
2.0: Important in few areas
2.5: Important in several areas
3.0: Important in most areas

1.0: Single
1.5: Few
2.0: Several
2.5: Many
3.0: All

1.0: Isolated
1.5: Isolated, slight impact over time
2.5: Recurring, period vaguely defined
3.0: Recurring indefinitely

Unweighted average

1.0: Utility lower
1.5: Utility same
2.0: Utility somewhat higher
2.5: Utility higher
3.0: Utility much higher

1.0: No actors
1.5: Few actors, politically weak
2.0: Some pol. weak actors
2.5: Some pol. powerful actors
3.0: Many pol. powerful actors

1.0: More powerful than all others
1.5: More powerful than some
2.0: As powerful
2.5: Somewhat less powerful
3.0: Less powerful

1.0: No other state
1.5: Few other states
2.0: Some other states
2.5: Many other states
3.0: Most other states

Unweighted average

Greenland 1982: EC Membership

1.5

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.5

3.0

1.0

1.9

Switzerland 1986: UN membership

1.0

1.5

1.0

1.1

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.5

Denmark 1992: Maastricht Treaty

3.0

2.5

2.0

2.1

Switzerland 1992: EEA membership

2.5

2.0

2.5

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.0

1.0

1.9

Norway 1994: EU membership

1.5

2.0

3.0

1.9

2.0

1.5

1.9

Ireland 2001: Treaty of Nice

2.0

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.5

1.5

2.0

France 2005: EU constitution

3.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

1.9

Ireland 2008:Treaty of Lisbon

2.5

3.0

2.9

1.5

2.5

2.0

2.1

Iceland 2010: Icesave I

1.0

2.5

2.0

3.0

2.5

Iceland 2011: Icesave II

1.0

2.5

2.0

3.0

2.5

Switzerland 2014: Free Movement of People

2.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2.5

3.0

2.5

3.0

2.9

Greece 2015: Bailout Referendum

3.0

2.5

3.0

2.8

3.0

2.5

2.8

Netherlands 2016: Ukraine–EU Association Agreement

1.5

3.0

1.8

2.0

2.5

2.0

2.5

2.3

UK 2016: Brexit Referendum

3.0

1.5

3.0

2.6

Table 4.

Open in new tab

Coding overview—cooperation gains at risk

	Cooperation gains at risk						Contagion risks
Case/indicator	Size			Breadth	Time profile	Overall score	Attractiveness	Politicization potential	Bargaining power	Uniqueness	Overall score
	Depth	Impact	Challenger importance				relative to status quo		relative to other relevant states	applicable to…
Scoring:	1.0: Very few 1.5: Few 2.0: Some 2.5: Substantial 3.0: Critical	1.0: None 1.5: Minimal 2.0: Some 2.5: Large 3.0: Very large	1.0: Not important in any area 1.5: Not important, single area 2.0: Important in few areas 2.5: Important in several areas 3.0: Important in most areas	1.0: Single 1.5: Few 2.0: Several 2.5: Many 3.0: All	1.0: Isolated 1.5: Isolated, slight impact over time 2.5: Recurring, period vaguely defined 3.0: Recurring indefinitely	Unweighted average	1.0: Utility lower 1.5: Utility same 2.0: Utility somewhat higher 2.5: Utility higher 3.0: Utility much higher	1.0: No actors 1.5: Few actors, politically weak 2.0: Some pol. weak actors 2.5: Some pol. powerful actors 3.0: Many pol. powerful actors	1.0: More powerful than all others 1.5: More powerful than some 2.0: As powerful 2.5: Somewhat less powerful 3.0: Less powerful	1.0: No other state 1.5: Few other states 2.0: Some other states 2.5: Many other states 3.0: Most other states	Unweighted average
Greenland 1982: EC Membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	3.0	1.0	1.9
Switzerland 1986: UN membership	1.0	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	2.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	1.5
Denmark 1992: Maastricht Treaty	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.1
Switzerland 1992: EEA membership	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.0	2.0	1.0	1.9
Norway 1994: EU membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.0	3.0	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	1.9
Ireland 2001: Treaty of Nice	2.0	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.0	2.0	2.5	1.5	2.0
France 2005: EU constitution	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	2.0	1.9
Ireland 2008:Treaty of Lisbon	2.5	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.9	1.5	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.1
Iceland 2010: Icesave I	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Iceland 2011: Icesave II	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Switzerland 2014: Free Movement of People	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.5	3.0	2.5	3.0	3.0	2.5	3.0	2.9
Greece 2015: Bailout Referendum	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	3.0	2.8	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.8
Netherlands 2016: Ukraine–EU Association Agreement	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	3.0	1.8	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.5	2.3
UK 2016: Brexit Referendum	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	3.0	2.6

	Cooperation gains at risk						Contagion risks
Case/indicator	Size			Breadth	Time profile	Overall score	Attractiveness	Politicization potential	Bargaining power	Uniqueness	Overall score
	Depth	Impact	Challenger importance				relative to status quo		relative to other relevant states	applicable to…
Scoring:	1.0: Very few 1.5: Few 2.0: Some 2.5: Substantial 3.0: Critical	1.0: None 1.5: Minimal 2.0: Some 2.5: Large 3.0: Very large	1.0: Not important in any area 1.5: Not important, single area 2.0: Important in few areas 2.5: Important in several areas 3.0: Important in most areas	1.0: Single 1.5: Few 2.0: Several 2.5: Many 3.0: All	1.0: Isolated 1.5: Isolated, slight impact over time 2.5: Recurring, period vaguely defined 3.0: Recurring indefinitely	Unweighted average	1.0: Utility lower 1.5: Utility same 2.0: Utility somewhat higher 2.5: Utility higher 3.0: Utility much higher	1.0: No actors 1.5: Few actors, politically weak 2.0: Some pol. weak actors 2.5: Some pol. powerful actors 3.0: Many pol. powerful actors	1.0: More powerful than all others 1.5: More powerful than some 2.0: As powerful 2.5: Somewhat less powerful 3.0: Less powerful	1.0: No other state 1.5: Few other states 2.0: Some other states 2.5: Many other states 3.0: Most other states	Unweighted average
Greenland 1982: EC Membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.5	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	3.0	1.0	1.9
Switzerland 1986: UN membership	1.0	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	2.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	1.5
Denmark 1992: Maastricht Treaty	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.1
Switzerland 1992: EEA membership	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.0	2.0	1.0	1.9
Norway 1994: EU membership	1.5	1.5	1.5	2.0	3.0	1.9	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	1.9
Ireland 2001: Treaty of Nice	2.0	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.0	2.0	2.5	1.5	2.0
France 2005: EU constitution	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	1.5	2.0	1.9
Ireland 2008:Treaty of Lisbon	2.5	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.9	1.5	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.1
Iceland 2010: Icesave I	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Iceland 2011: Icesave II	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	2.5
Switzerland 2014: Free Movement of People	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.5	3.0	2.5	3.0	3.0	2.5	3.0	2.9
Greece 2015: Bailout Referendum	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	3.0	2.8	3.0	3.0	2.5	2.5	2.8
Netherlands 2016: Ukraine–EU Association Agreement	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	3.0	1.8	2.0	2.5	2.0	2.5	2.3
UK 2016: Brexit Referendum	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	3.0	2.6

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