Table 3 Open in new tab Prediction model...

a. Baseline age < 70			Incident CVD	CVD-related mortality
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.64	8341	8353	0.67	2165	2174
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.64	8350	8363	0.67	2166	2175
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.67	8317	8321	0.66	2174	2177
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	8307	8311	0.68	2158	2160
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	8371	8383	0.67	2167	2175
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8290	8307	0.69^b	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.67	8309	8326	0.69	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8289	8306	0.69^b	2153	2164
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.67	8308	8325	0.69	2153	2164
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.75	9056	9069	0.81	810	816
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.75	9062	9075	0.81	809	815
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.74	9166	9171	0.84	807	809
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.75	9137	9142	0.84	796	798
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.74	9122	9135	0.81	810	816
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.76^b	9012	9030	0.84^b	796	804
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.75	9065	9082	0.84	796	803
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.77^b	9002	9020	0.85^b	789	797
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.76	9053	9070	0.84	788	796
HBCS	BA indicator	I	FI	0.67	4304	4315	0.70	578	583
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.65	4326	4337	0.66	584	589
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.63	4360	4363	0.68	567	569
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	4324	4327	0.72	560	562
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	4364	4376	0.64	587	592
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.67^b	4309	4324	0.74	570	577
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	4339	4354	0.72	571	578
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.69^b	4288	4303	0.73	565	571
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.69	4318	4333	0.73	56	572
b. Baseline age 70+	Incident CVD	CVD-related mortality
Cohort	Model type	Model	Variables in the model^a	C	AIC	BIC	C	AIC	BIC
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1578	1586	0.63	1058	1065
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.63	1578	1586	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.65	1568	1571	0.61	1051	1053
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1572	1575	0.61	1051	1054
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.61	1582	1591	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66	1567	1578	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	1571	1582	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.65^b	1569	1580	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.64	1573	1584	0.64	1053	1062
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1177	1185	0.80	167	169
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.62	1182	1190	0.80	166	169
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.62	1174	1177	0.89	143	144
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1175	1177	0.89	150	150
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.57	1194	1203	0.74	172	174
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1171	1182	0.90	146	150
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.88	148	151
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1172	1183	0.88	150	153
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.87	151	154

a. Baseline age < 70

Incident CVD

CVD-related mortality

Cohort

Model type

Model

Variables in the model^a

AIC

BIC

AIC

BIC

TwinGene

BA indicator

0.64

8341

8353

0.67

2165

2174

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.64

8350

8363

0.67

2166

2175

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.67

8317

8321

0.66

2174

2177

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2

0.67

8307

8311

0.68

2158

2160

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.62

8371

8383

0.67

2167

2175

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.68^b

8290

8307

0.69^b

2159

2170

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.67

8309

8326

0.69

2159

2170

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)

0.68^b

8289

8306

0.69^b

2153

2164

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2 + Telomere length

0.67

8308

8325

0.69

2153

2164

H2000

BA indicator

0.75

9056

9069

0.81

810

816

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.75

9062

9075

0.81

809

815

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.74

9166

9171

0.84

807

809

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2

0.75

9137

9142

0.84

796

798

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.74

9122

9135

0.81

810

816

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.76^b

9012

9030

0.84^b

796

804

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.75

9065

9082

0.84

796

803

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)

0.77^b

9002

9020

0.85^b

789

797

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2 + Telomere length

0.76

9053

9070

0.84

788

796

HBCS

BA indicator

0.67

4304

4315

0.70

578

583

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.65

4326

4337

0.66

584

589

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.63

4360

4363

0.68

567

569

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2

0.67

4324

4327

0.72

560

562

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.62

4364

4376

0.64

587

592

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.67^b

4309

4324

0.74

570

577

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.65

4339

4354

0.72

571

578

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)

0.69^b

4288

4303

0.73

565

571

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2 + Telomere length

0.69

4318

4333

0.73

572

b. Baseline age 70+

Incident CVD

CVD-related mortality

Cohort

Model type

Model

Variables in the model^a

AIC

BIC

AIC

BIC

TwinGene

BA indicator

0.63

1578

1586

0.63

1058

1065

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.63

1578

1586

0.62

1060

1067

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.65

1568

1571

0.61

1051

1053

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2-OP

0.64

1572

1575

0.61

1051

1054

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.61

1582

1591

0.62

1060

1067

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.66

1567

1578

0.64

1053

1062

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.65

1571

1582

0.64

1053

1062

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)

0.65^b

1569

1580

0.64

1053

1062

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2-OP + Telomere length

0.64

1573

1584

0.64

1053

1062

H2000

BA indicator

0.63

1177

1185

0.80

167

169

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.62

1182

1190

0.80

166

169

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.62

1174

1177

0.89

143

144

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2-OP

0.64

1175

1177

0.89

150

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.57

1194

1203

0.74

172

174

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.66^b

1171

1182

0.90

146

150

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.63

1180

1191

0.88

148

151

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)

0.66^b

1172

1183

0.88

150

153

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2-OP + Telomere length

0.63

1180

1191

0.87

151

154

a. Baseline age < 70			Incident CVD	CVD-related mortality
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.64	8341	8353	0.67	2165	2174
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.64	8350	8363	0.67	2166	2175
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.67	8317	8321	0.66	2174	2177
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	8307	8311	0.68	2158	2160
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	8371	8383	0.67	2167	2175
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8290	8307	0.69^b	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.67	8309	8326	0.69	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8289	8306	0.69^b	2153	2164
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.67	8308	8325	0.69	2153	2164
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.75	9056	9069	0.81	810	816
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.75	9062	9075	0.81	809	815
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.74	9166	9171	0.84	807	809
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.75	9137	9142	0.84	796	798
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.74	9122	9135	0.81	810	816
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.76^b	9012	9030	0.84^b	796	804
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.75	9065	9082	0.84	796	803
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.77^b	9002	9020	0.85^b	789	797
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.76	9053	9070	0.84	788	796
HBCS	BA indicator	I	FI	0.67	4304	4315	0.70	578	583
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.65	4326	4337	0.66	584	589
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.63	4360	4363	0.68	567	569
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	4324	4327	0.72	560	562
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	4364	4376	0.64	587	592
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.67^b	4309	4324	0.74	570	577
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	4339	4354	0.72	571	578
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.69^b	4288	4303	0.73	565	571
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.69	4318	4333	0.73	56	572
b. Baseline age 70+	Incident CVD	CVD-related mortality
Cohort	Model type	Model	Variables in the model^a	C	AIC	BIC	C	AIC	BIC
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1578	1586	0.63	1058	1065
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.63	1578	1586	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.65	1568	1571	0.61	1051	1053
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1572	1575	0.61	1051	1054
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.61	1582	1591	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66	1567	1578	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	1571	1582	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.65^b	1569	1580	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.64	1573	1584	0.64	1053	1062
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1177	1185	0.80	167	169
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.62	1182	1190	0.80	166	169
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.62	1174	1177	0.89	143	144
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1175	1177	0.89	150	150
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.57	1194	1203	0.74	172	174
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1171	1182	0.90	146	150
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.88	148	151
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1172	1183	0.88	150	153
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.87	151	154

a. Baseline age < 70

Incident CVD

CVD-related mortality

Cohort

Model type

Model

Variables in the model^a

AIC

BIC

AIC

BIC

TwinGene

BA indicator

0.64

8341

8353

0.67

2165

2174

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.64

8350

8363

0.67

2166

2175

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.67

8317

8321

0.66

2174

2177

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2

0.67

8307

8311

0.68

2158

2160

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.62

8371

8383

0.67

2167

2175

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.68^b

8290

8307

0.69^b

2159

2170

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.67

8309

8326

0.69

2159

2170

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)

0.68^b

8289

8306

0.69^b

2153

2164

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2 + Telomere length

0.67

8308

8325

0.69

2153

2164

H2000

BA indicator

0.75

9056

9069

0.81

810

816

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.75

9062

9075

0.81

809

815

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.74

9166

9171

0.84

807

809

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2

0.75

9137

9142

0.84

796

798

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.74

9122

9135

0.81

810

816

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.76^b

9012

9030

0.84^b

796

804

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.75

9065

9082

0.84

796

803

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)

0.77^b

9002

9020

0.85^b

789

797

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2 + Telomere length

0.76

9053

9070

0.84

788

796

HBCS

BA indicator

0.67

4304

4315

0.70

578

583

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.65

4326

4337

0.66

584

589

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.63

4360

4363

0.68

567

569

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2

0.67

4324

4327

0.72

560

562

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.62

4364

4376

0.64

587

592

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.67^b

4309

4324

0.74

570

577

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.65

4339

4354

0.72

571

578

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)

0.69^b

4288

4303

0.73

565

571

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2 + Telomere length

0.69

4318

4333

0.73

572

b. Baseline age 70+

Incident CVD

CVD-related mortality

Cohort

Model type

Model

Variables in the model^a

AIC

BIC

AIC

BIC

TwinGene

BA indicator

0.63

1578

1586

0.63

1058

1065

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.63

1578

1586

0.62

1060

1067

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.65

1568

1571

0.61

1051

1053

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2-OP

0.64

1572

1575

0.61

1051

1054

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.61

1582

1591

0.62

1060

1067

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.66

1567

1578

0.64

1053

1062

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.65

1571

1582

0.64

1053

1062

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)

0.65^b

1569

1580

0.64

1053

1062

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2-OP + Telomere length

0.64

1573

1584

0.64

1053

1062

H2000

BA indicator

0.63

1177

1185

0.80

167

169

BA indicator

FI (excl CV items)

0.62

1182

1190

0.80

166

169

CVD risk indicator

III

FRS

0.62

1174

1177

0.89

143

144

CVD risk indicator

SCORE2-OP

0.64

1175

1177

0.89

150

BA indicator

Telomere length

0.57

1194

1203

0.74

172

174

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

FRS + FI (excl CV items)

0.66^b

1171

1182

0.90

146

150

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VII

FRS + Telomere length

0.63

1180

1191

0.88

148

151

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

VIII

SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)

0.66^b

1172

1183

0.88

150

153

CVD risk indicator + BA indicator

SCORE2-OP + Telomere length

0.63

1180

1191

0.87

151

154

Table 3

Open in new tab

Prediction model performance metrics in TwinGene, Health 2000 and HBCS in the age groups <70 and 70+.

a. Baseline age < 70				Incident CVD			CVD-related mortality
Cohort	Model type	Model	Variables in the model^a	C	AIC	BIC	C	AIC	BIC
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.64	8341	8353	0.67	2165	2174
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.64	8350	8363	0.67	2166	2175
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.67	8317	8321	0.66	2174	2177
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	8307	8311	0.68	2158	2160
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	8371	8383	0.67	2167	2175
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8290	8307	0.69^b	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.67	8309	8326	0.69	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8289	8306	0.69^b	2153	2164
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.67	8308	8325	0.69	2153	2164
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.75	9056	9069	0.81	810	816
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.75	9062	9075	0.81	809	815
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.74	9166	9171	0.84	807	809
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.75	9137	9142	0.84	796	798
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.74	9122	9135	0.81	810	816
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.76^b	9012	9030	0.84^b	796	804
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.75	9065	9082	0.84	796	803
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.77^b	9002	9020	0.85^b	789	797
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.76	9053	9070	0.84	788	796
HBCS	BA indicator	I	FI	0.67	4304	4315	0.70	578	583
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.65	4326	4337	0.66	584	589
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.63	4360	4363	0.68	567	569
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	4324	4327	0.72	560	562
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	4364	4376	0.64	587	592
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.67^b	4309	4324	0.74	570	577
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	4339	4354	0.72	571	578
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.69^b	4288	4303	0.73	565	571
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.69	4318	4333	0.73	56	572
b. Baseline age 70+				Incident CVD		CVD-related mortality
Cohort	Model type	Model	Variables in the model^a	C	AIC	BIC	C	AIC	BIC
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1578	1586	0.63	1058	1065
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.63	1578	1586	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.65	1568	1571	0.61	1051	1053
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1572	1575	0.61	1051	1054
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.61	1582	1591	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66	1567	1578	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	1571	1582	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.65^b	1569	1580	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.64	1573	1584	0.64	1053	1062
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1177	1185	0.80	167	169
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.62	1182	1190	0.80	166	169
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.62	1174	1177	0.89	143	144
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1175	1177	0.89	150	150
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.57	1194	1203	0.74	172	174
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1171	1182	0.90	146	150
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.88	148	151
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1172	1183	0.88	150	153
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.87	151	154

a. Baseline age < 70				Incident CVD			CVD-related mortality
Cohort	Model type	Model	Variables in the model^a	C	AIC	BIC	C	AIC	BIC
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.64	8341	8353	0.67	2165	2174
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.64	8350	8363	0.67	2166	2175
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.67	8317	8321	0.66	2174	2177
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	8307	8311	0.68	2158	2160
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	8371	8383	0.67	2167	2175
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8290	8307	0.69^b	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.67	8309	8326	0.69	2159	2170
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.68^b	8289	8306	0.69^b	2153	2164
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.67	8308	8325	0.69	2153	2164
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.75	9056	9069	0.81	810	816
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.75	9062	9075	0.81	809	815
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.74	9166	9171	0.84	807	809
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.75	9137	9142	0.84	796	798
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.74	9122	9135	0.81	810	816
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.76^b	9012	9030	0.84^b	796	804
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.75	9065	9082	0.84	796	803
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.77^b	9002	9020	0.85^b	789	797
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.76	9053	9070	0.84	788	796
HBCS	BA indicator	I	FI	0.67	4304	4315	0.70	578	583
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.65	4326	4337	0.66	584	589
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.63	4360	4363	0.68	567	569
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2	0.67	4324	4327	0.72	560	562
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.62	4364	4376	0.64	587	592
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.67^b	4309	4324	0.74	570	577
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	4339	4354	0.72	571	578
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2 + FI (excl CV items)	0.69^b	4288	4303	0.73	565	571
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2 + Telomere length	0.69	4318	4333	0.73	56	572
b. Baseline age 70+				Incident CVD		CVD-related mortality
Cohort	Model type	Model	Variables in the model^a	C	AIC	BIC	C	AIC	BIC
TwinGene	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1578	1586	0.63	1058	1065
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.63	1578	1586	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.65	1568	1571	0.61	1051	1053
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1572	1575	0.61	1051	1054
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.61	1582	1591	0.62	1060	1067
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66	1567	1578	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.65	1571	1582	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.65^b	1569	1580	0.64	1053	1062
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.64	1573	1584	0.64	1053	1062
H2000	BA indicator	I	FI	0.63	1177	1185	0.80	167	169
	BA indicator	II	FI (excl CV items)	0.62	1182	1190	0.80	166	169
	CVD risk indicator	III	FRS	0.62	1174	1177	0.89	143	144
	CVD risk indicator	IV	SCORE2-OP	0.64	1175	1177	0.89	150	150
	BA indicator	V	Telomere length	0.57	1194	1203	0.74	172	174
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VI	FRS + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1171	1182	0.90	146	150
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VII	FRS + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.88	148	151
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	VIII	SCORE2-OP + FI (excl CV items)	0.66^b	1172	1183	0.88	150	153
	CVD risk indicator + BA indicator	IX	SCORE2-OP + Telomere length	0.63	1180	1191	0.87	151	154

^aModels I, II and VI-IX were adjusted for age and sex. Models were evaluated per event type, cohort, and age group. (i) P < .05 (Supplementary Table 6) is indicated with a symbol `b'.

This p-value is calculated for the difference in model fits between model III and model VI, and model IV and model VIII. (ii) The highest-ranking Harrels’s C-index is highlighted with bolded font. (iii) Within models I-V, the highest-ranking Harrels’s C-index is underlined. If C-indices were equal, ranking was performed according to AIC and BIC. The baseline age in HBCS was <70 for all participants. Abbreviations: AIC, Akaike Information Criterion; BIC, Bayesian Information Criterion; BA, Biological ageing; FI, Frailty Index; CV, Cardiovascular; CVD, Cardiovascular disease; FRS, Framingham Risk Score.

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