Sensitivity analyses with regard to the elasticities in trade of and substitution between fossil and biofuels
| . | Standard . | Changed trade elasticities . | Changed substitution elasticities . | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | ||||
| . | . | . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . |
| Percentage change in world price, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Cereals | −12.6 | −7.1 | −13.4 | −11.5 | −9.1 | −4.7 | −11.4 | −14.2 | −6.8 | −8.5 |
| Oilseed | −6.8 | 1.2 | −7.6 | −5.6 | −1.3 | 4.1 | −5.0 | −9.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Percentage share of biofuel crops in fuel consumption for transportation, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Germany | 3.8 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| France | 1.8 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Brazil | 30.8 | 29.6 | 30.3 | 31.6 | 29.3 | 30.3 | 32.0 | 29.2 | 30.6 | 28.5 |
| NAFTA | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Percentage change in oilseed production, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 91.0 | 102.7 | 94.0 | 87.6 | 104.8 | 97.3 | 94.4 | 86.1 | 102.4 | 102.0 |
| Asia | 61.4 | 63.7 | 58.1 | 65.9 | 61.2 | 67.8 | 62.2 | 59.6 | 64.0 | 63.8 |
| C&S America | 66.0 | 84.7 | 70.2 | 58.5 | 85.5 | 78.8 | 71.2 | 59.8 | 84.5 | 84.5 |
| EU | 5.6 | 41.3 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 33.7 | 53.9 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 37.4 | 46.0 |
| High income countries | 56.8 | 65.4 | 58.7 | 53.8 | 67.4 | 60.9 | 63.1 | 46.3 | 68.1 | 61.6 |
| Percentage change in agricultural land use, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 36.2 | 36.6 | 36.4 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 36.4 | 36.3 | 36.2 | 36.8 | 36.7 |
| Asia | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| C&S America | 35.5 | 38.5 | 35.9 | 34.8 | 38.9 | 37.8 | 36.1 | 34.9 | 39.0 | 38.4 |
| EU | −8.8 | −4.9 | −9.1 | −8.5 | −6.5 | −2.6 | −8.6 | −9.1 | −5.3 | −4.9 |
| High income countries | −0.5 | 0.5 | −0.7 | −0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.5 | −0.1 |
| Change in agricultural land use for biofuel crop production (million hectares), 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Asia | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| C&S America | 6.1 | 22.7 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 23.0 | 19.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 24.2 | 20.7 |
| EU | 1.4 | 12.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| High income countries | 20.2 | 22.9 | 21.6 | 19.0 | 23.5 | 21.3 | 26.2 | 11.2 | 26.4 | 18.3 |
| Net-exports of biofuel crops, 2020 (US$ billion, real 2001) | ||||||||||
| Africa | −1.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | −2.4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | −1.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Asia | −25.5 | −18.9 | −26.1 | −24.2 | −19.3 | −18.6 | −26.5 | −25.3 | −19.9 | −18.6 |
| C&S America | 27.7 | 32.2 | 31.2 | 23.4 | 35.1 | 28.2 | 29.1 | 26.2 | 32.7 | 31.5 |
| EU | −17.6 | −38.2 | −22.7 | −11.0 | −44.1 | −27.8 | −18.0 | −17.3 | −37.5 | −38.5 |
| High income countries | 9.7 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 17.6 |
| . | Standard . | Changed trade elasticities . | Changed substitution elasticities . | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | ||||
| . | . | . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . |
| Percentage change in world price, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Cereals | −12.6 | −7.1 | −13.4 | −11.5 | −9.1 | −4.7 | −11.4 | −14.2 | −6.8 | −8.5 |
| Oilseed | −6.8 | 1.2 | −7.6 | −5.6 | −1.3 | 4.1 | −5.0 | −9.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Percentage share of biofuel crops in fuel consumption for transportation, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Germany | 3.8 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| France | 1.8 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Brazil | 30.8 | 29.6 | 30.3 | 31.6 | 29.3 | 30.3 | 32.0 | 29.2 | 30.6 | 28.5 |
| NAFTA | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Percentage change in oilseed production, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 91.0 | 102.7 | 94.0 | 87.6 | 104.8 | 97.3 | 94.4 | 86.1 | 102.4 | 102.0 |
| Asia | 61.4 | 63.7 | 58.1 | 65.9 | 61.2 | 67.8 | 62.2 | 59.6 | 64.0 | 63.8 |
| C&S America | 66.0 | 84.7 | 70.2 | 58.5 | 85.5 | 78.8 | 71.2 | 59.8 | 84.5 | 84.5 |
| EU | 5.6 | 41.3 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 33.7 | 53.9 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 37.4 | 46.0 |
| High income countries | 56.8 | 65.4 | 58.7 | 53.8 | 67.4 | 60.9 | 63.1 | 46.3 | 68.1 | 61.6 |
| Percentage change in agricultural land use, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 36.2 | 36.6 | 36.4 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 36.4 | 36.3 | 36.2 | 36.8 | 36.7 |
| Asia | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| C&S America | 35.5 | 38.5 | 35.9 | 34.8 | 38.9 | 37.8 | 36.1 | 34.9 | 39.0 | 38.4 |
| EU | −8.8 | −4.9 | −9.1 | −8.5 | −6.5 | −2.6 | −8.6 | −9.1 | −5.3 | −4.9 |
| High income countries | −0.5 | 0.5 | −0.7 | −0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.5 | −0.1 |
| Change in agricultural land use for biofuel crop production (million hectares), 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Asia | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| C&S America | 6.1 | 22.7 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 23.0 | 19.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 24.2 | 20.7 |
| EU | 1.4 | 12.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| High income countries | 20.2 | 22.9 | 21.6 | 19.0 | 23.5 | 21.3 | 26.2 | 11.2 | 26.4 | 18.3 |
| Net-exports of biofuel crops, 2020 (US$ billion, real 2001) | ||||||||||
| Africa | −1.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | −2.4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | −1.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Asia | −25.5 | −18.9 | −26.1 | −24.2 | −19.3 | −18.6 | −26.5 | −25.3 | −19.9 | −18.6 |
| C&S America | 27.7 | 32.2 | 31.2 | 23.4 | 35.1 | 28.2 | 29.1 | 26.2 | 32.7 | 31.5 |
| EU | −17.6 | −38.2 | −22.7 | −11.0 | −44.1 | −27.8 | −18.0 | −17.3 | −37.5 | −38.5 |
| High income countries | 9.7 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 17.6 |
Sensitivity analyses with regard to the elasticities in trade of and substitution between fossil and biofuels
| . | Standard . | Changed trade elasticities . | Changed substitution elasticities . | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | ||||
| . | . | . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . |
| Percentage change in world price, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Cereals | −12.6 | −7.1 | −13.4 | −11.5 | −9.1 | −4.7 | −11.4 | −14.2 | −6.8 | −8.5 |
| Oilseed | −6.8 | 1.2 | −7.6 | −5.6 | −1.3 | 4.1 | −5.0 | −9.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Percentage share of biofuel crops in fuel consumption for transportation, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Germany | 3.8 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| France | 1.8 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Brazil | 30.8 | 29.6 | 30.3 | 31.6 | 29.3 | 30.3 | 32.0 | 29.2 | 30.6 | 28.5 |
| NAFTA | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Percentage change in oilseed production, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 91.0 | 102.7 | 94.0 | 87.6 | 104.8 | 97.3 | 94.4 | 86.1 | 102.4 | 102.0 |
| Asia | 61.4 | 63.7 | 58.1 | 65.9 | 61.2 | 67.8 | 62.2 | 59.6 | 64.0 | 63.8 |
| C&S America | 66.0 | 84.7 | 70.2 | 58.5 | 85.5 | 78.8 | 71.2 | 59.8 | 84.5 | 84.5 |
| EU | 5.6 | 41.3 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 33.7 | 53.9 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 37.4 | 46.0 |
| High income countries | 56.8 | 65.4 | 58.7 | 53.8 | 67.4 | 60.9 | 63.1 | 46.3 | 68.1 | 61.6 |
| Percentage change in agricultural land use, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 36.2 | 36.6 | 36.4 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 36.4 | 36.3 | 36.2 | 36.8 | 36.7 |
| Asia | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| C&S America | 35.5 | 38.5 | 35.9 | 34.8 | 38.9 | 37.8 | 36.1 | 34.9 | 39.0 | 38.4 |
| EU | −8.8 | −4.9 | −9.1 | −8.5 | −6.5 | −2.6 | −8.6 | −9.1 | −5.3 | −4.9 |
| High income countries | −0.5 | 0.5 | −0.7 | −0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.5 | −0.1 |
| Change in agricultural land use for biofuel crop production (million hectares), 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Asia | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| C&S America | 6.1 | 22.7 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 23.0 | 19.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 24.2 | 20.7 |
| EU | 1.4 | 12.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| High income countries | 20.2 | 22.9 | 21.6 | 19.0 | 23.5 | 21.3 | 26.2 | 11.2 | 26.4 | 18.3 |
| Net-exports of biofuel crops, 2020 (US$ billion, real 2001) | ||||||||||
| Africa | −1.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | −2.4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | −1.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Asia | −25.5 | −18.9 | −26.1 | −24.2 | −19.3 | −18.6 | −26.5 | −25.3 | −19.9 | −18.6 |
| C&S America | 27.7 | 32.2 | 31.2 | 23.4 | 35.1 | 28.2 | 29.1 | 26.2 | 32.7 | 31.5 |
| EU | −17.6 | −38.2 | −22.7 | −11.0 | −44.1 | −27.8 | −18.0 | −17.3 | −37.5 | −38.5 |
| High income countries | 9.7 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 17.6 |
| . | Standard . | Changed trade elasticities . | Changed substitution elasticities . | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | Reference . | BFD . | ||||
| . | . | . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . | High . | Low . |
| Percentage change in world price, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Cereals | −12.6 | −7.1 | −13.4 | −11.5 | −9.1 | −4.7 | −11.4 | −14.2 | −6.8 | −8.5 |
| Oilseed | −6.8 | 1.2 | −7.6 | −5.6 | −1.3 | 4.1 | −5.0 | −9.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Percentage share of biofuel crops in fuel consumption for transportation, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Germany | 3.8 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| France | 1.8 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Brazil | 30.8 | 29.6 | 30.3 | 31.6 | 29.3 | 30.3 | 32.0 | 29.2 | 30.6 | 28.5 |
| NAFTA | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Percentage change in oilseed production, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 91.0 | 102.7 | 94.0 | 87.6 | 104.8 | 97.3 | 94.4 | 86.1 | 102.4 | 102.0 |
| Asia | 61.4 | 63.7 | 58.1 | 65.9 | 61.2 | 67.8 | 62.2 | 59.6 | 64.0 | 63.8 |
| C&S America | 66.0 | 84.7 | 70.2 | 58.5 | 85.5 | 78.8 | 71.2 | 59.8 | 84.5 | 84.5 |
| EU | 5.6 | 41.3 | 3.0 | 8.7 | 33.7 | 53.9 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 37.4 | 46.0 |
| High income countries | 56.8 | 65.4 | 58.7 | 53.8 | 67.4 | 60.9 | 63.1 | 46.3 | 68.1 | 61.6 |
| Percentage change in agricultural land use, 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 36.2 | 36.6 | 36.4 | 36.0 | 36.9 | 36.4 | 36.3 | 36.2 | 36.8 | 36.7 |
| Asia | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| C&S America | 35.5 | 38.5 | 35.9 | 34.8 | 38.9 | 37.8 | 36.1 | 34.9 | 39.0 | 38.4 |
| EU | −8.8 | −4.9 | −9.1 | −8.5 | −6.5 | −2.6 | −8.6 | −9.1 | −5.3 | −4.9 |
| High income countries | −0.5 | 0.5 | −0.7 | −0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.5 | −0.1 |
| Change in agricultural land use for biofuel crop production (million hectares), 2020 relative to 2001 | ||||||||||
| Africa | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Asia | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| C&S America | 6.1 | 22.7 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 23.0 | 19.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 24.2 | 20.7 |
| EU | 1.4 | 12.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| High income countries | 20.2 | 22.9 | 21.6 | 19.0 | 23.5 | 21.3 | 26.2 | 11.2 | 26.4 | 18.3 |
| Net-exports of biofuel crops, 2020 (US$ billion, real 2001) | ||||||||||
| Africa | −1.1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | −2.4 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | −1.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Asia | −25.5 | −18.9 | −26.1 | −24.2 | −19.3 | −18.6 | −26.5 | −25.3 | −19.9 | −18.6 |
| C&S America | 27.7 | 32.2 | 31.2 | 23.4 | 35.1 | 28.2 | 29.1 | 26.2 | 32.7 | 31.5 |
| EU | −17.6 | −38.2 | −22.7 | −11.0 | −44.1 | −27.8 | −18.0 | −17.3 | −37.5 | −38.5 |
| High income countries | 9.7 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 17.6 |
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