The figure displays the sequence of coefficients
|$ \{\beta_{s} \} $| that results from estimating the model:
where
ybt is the logarithm of one plus the type of deposit indicated in the figure for bank
b in month
t. We multiply
ybt with 100 to convert the coefficients into percentage points.
|$ \text{Failed}_{b} $| is an indicator of whether a bank fails during or after the run.
Xb is a set of bank-level control variables. We include a bank’s ratio of total liabilities (total assets net of equity) to equity, liquid assets (securities and interbank claims) to total deposits, interbank funding to total deposits, indicators of the size quartile based on total assets, an indicator for use of foreign-currency denominated deposits, and an indicator for whether a bank was connected to the nonfinancial firm “Nordwolle,” which declared bankruptcy in June 1931. All control variables are calculated by averaging at the bank level from February through April 1931. The model is estimated using balance sheets reported from February through July 1931 in the
Deutscher Staats- und Preussischer Reichsanzeiger, dropping banks once they have failed. Finally,
γb are bank-level fixed effects. The first vertical line, on May 11, 1931, represents the date of the failure of the Austrian Creditanstalt. The second vertical line, on July 13, 1931, represents the failure of Danatbank and the start of the banking holiday.
Figure A.11 in the
Internet Appendix shows the estimates for each type of deposit in separate plots including confidence bands.