Average payoffs for different values of |$K \in \{\hat{K}, 10 \hat{K}, 20\hat{K}\}$| (left), HDD distribution distribution starting from |$HDD_{strike}$| (right) for a derivative on the month of January 2019, forecasted 30 days ahead and based on |$50\,000$| Monte Carlo simulations (right). |$HDD_{strike}$| is kept at 90% empirical quantile of |$K = \hat{K}$| for all simulations.