Normalized histograms of |$\hat{\alpha }$| and ΔBIC (bottom x-axis and left y-axis) obtained from 106 simulated rupture histories (see the section 5.1 in the text for details on simulations) for faults (F3, F4, F6, F8, F11, F14, F15) having four ages at least, since 6000 BCE. In each panel, the red solid line marks the reliability curve that quantifies the soundness of a specific recurrence model for each fault. Specifically, it marks the percentage of simulated histories (indicated in the right y-axis) for which the inferred |$\hat{\alpha }$| (left panels) or ΔBIC (right panels) is outside the 90 per cent confidence interval given by a BPT model, with periodicity |$\alpha $| (indicated in the top x-axis; see the text for the definition of the confidence intervals) and, therefore, the model is rejected at 90 per cent confidence level. The dotted red lines mark the proportion of rejections for a Poisson model.
