Plot of probabilities P_M( ΔT|T_L) given by BPT and Poisson models, for ΔT = 50 yr. For each fault, the probabilities are computed on 10⁶ rupture histories, by randomly choosing μ inside the 90 per cent confidence interval obtained for that fault (listed in Table 3) and, α from 0 to 2, for BPT models. The solid black line marks the median of P_M(ΔT|T_L) for BPT models, versus α; the grey shadow area shows the respective 90 per cent confidence interval. The solid and dashed red lines mark the median and the 90 per cent confidence bounds, respectively, of P_M(ΔT|T_L), given by the Poisson model.