
Contents
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Introduction Introduction
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Types of Decision and Epistemic Errors in Data Analysis Types of Decision and Epistemic Errors in Data Analysis
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Other Definitions of Type III Error Other Definitions of Type III Error
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A Commonality Among the Type III Error Definitions A Commonality Among the Type III Error Definitions
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The Need for a Fourth Type of Error The Need for a Fourth Type of Error
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An Existing Definition of Type IV Error An Existing Definition of Type IV Error
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Generalizing Type IV Error to All Cases of Errors of Statistical Assumptions Generalizing Type IV Error to All Cases of Errors of Statistical Assumptions
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Bringing it All Together: Examples of the Implementation (Type III) and Evaluation (Type IV) Errors in Psychological Science Bringing it All Together: Examples of the Implementation (Type III) and Evaluation (Type IV) Errors in Psychological Science
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Specific Examples of Type III Errors as Theory or Method Implementation Errors in Evolutionary Psychology Literature Specific Examples of Type III Errors as Theory or Method Implementation Errors in Evolutionary Psychology Literature
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Example 1: Masculinity and Femininity Predicting Desired Number of Sexual Partners? Example 1: Masculinity and Femininity Predicting Desired Number of Sexual Partners?
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Example 2: Cross-Cultural Differences in Mate Preferences as Statistical Moderation? Example 2: Cross-Cultural Differences in Mate Preferences as Statistical Moderation?
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Specific Examples of Type IV Errors as Statistical Evaluation Errors in Evolutionary Psychology Specific Examples of Type IV Errors as Statistical Evaluation Errors in Evolutionary Psychology
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Example 3: Outliers Influencing the Desired Number of Sexual Partners Example 3: Outliers Influencing the Desired Number of Sexual Partners
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Example 4: Aggregation Bias Influencing Ovulation and Imagined Political Behavior Example 4: Aggregation Bias Influencing Ovulation and Imagined Political Behavior
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Moving Forward with Type III and IV Errors to Improve Science Moving Forward with Type III and IV Errors to Improve Science
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References References
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12 The Importance of Type III and Type IV Epistemic Errors for Improving Empirical Science
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Published:April 2022
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Abstract
Sciences that use the null hypothesis statistical test continue to contend with type I errors (false positives) and type II errors (false negatives). In addition to those errors, statisticians and researchers have identified type III and type IV errors, which focus a scientist’s attention on the larger logical and epistemic outcomes of statistical decision-making that accompany either rejecting or retaining the null hypothesis. Specifically, type III and IV errors interrogate the match between theory and measurement on one side and statistical procedures on the other side. Type III errors occur when scientists use the correct statistical procedures on the wrong theoretical organization or operationalization of variables (viz., theory misspecification). In contrast, type IV errors occur when scientists use the incorrect statistical procedures (viz., evaluation misspecification) on the correct theoretical organization or operationalization of variables. Examples are provided to illustrate each error, as are recommendations to minimize the occurrence of these errors.
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